TruffleShuffle

If you're equating Mike Wuertz to Rafael Betancourt, you're a fool. i agree. betancourt is a middle reliever who's 33 years old and is making $5.4M over the next two years, and has been horrendous this year. his LD% is a disturbingly-high 25.9%, and he gives up twice as many fly balls as he does ground balls, which is really a bad thing if you were to put him in a place like wrigley field. his great numbers last year were mostly a result of an unsustainable BABIP and LOB% (86.4!) along with a really abnormal home run rate - only 6 all year, or just 4.7% of his fly balls. he pounds the strike zone, but his ability to throw strikes hasn't been as good this year. meanwhile, wuertz is a pitcher who allows more ground balls than fly balls. his command is more spotty, but he has had a solid K-rate up to this year, and his velocity is still as good as it has been in previous years. he threw his fastball on 40% of his pitches in 2006 and 2007, but only 26.5% this year, while his slider rate has increased from 42.6% in 2006 to 62.1% this year. his pitching coach and catchers should probably be working with him on throwing a more even mix of pitches, rather than relying so heavily on the breaking pitch that often bends out of the strike zone. Still, given his age (29) and cheapness ($860k), combined with the profile of a ground ball pitcher at a hitter's park, he provides more value for the dollar than betancourt. i'm assuming that's what you meant when you said anyone comparing the two guys was a fool, correct?

weeks' k-rate is already down a little this year. he's still hitting for some power, and his BABIP is woeful, but his LD% is also very poor (12.7%). This really tells the story of what's gone wrong the last year and a half: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1849_2B_season_full_9_20080608.png basically he is hitting too many weak ground balls and isn't hitting the ball hard frequently enough. seeing the problem is easy; fixing it is apparently much more difficult. looking at his plate discipline, the biggest difference i see is that he's putting a higher percentage of outside the strike zone pitches in play, and maybe he's just putting more balls in play that have a poor chance at becoming hits. things are heading the wrong way with him, and the brewers had better hope that he gets it straightened out.

that snow ball has melted. It's funny to read, because I actually agree with some of the reasoning on that thread why DeRosa wasn't the best signing. He really bucked a lot of trends by being good for 2 years (assuming he continues this year) when it did sort of look like he had just had a career year. It's fun to be wrong when it means the Cubs are a better team for it. statistical analysis is great and IMO is more important than scouting, but derosa's success is a lesson to those who think they can sit and look at a player's baseball reference page or PECOTA projections and think they know what's going to happen. Looking at DeRosa's pre-2006 PECOTA projections was almost pointless, given that he'd probably had a 2006 that was at or above his 90th percentile expectation. Focusing on his lousy 2004 numbers was the wrong idea given his change in approach (toe tap at the plate). His EqA and OPS+ trends: 2005: .271, 97 2006: .280, 108 2007: .275, 102 So his performance in 2007 is basically right in line with what he did the previous two seasons. At some point, scouting needs to be part of the equation, and obviously the people doing the scouting for the Cubs saw that DeRosa's improvements at the plate were no fluke. his performance to this date isn't likely to continue (~.298 EqA, 126 OPS+), but he is hitting line drives at a solid rate and continues to add some extra-base power to the mix. The idea that $13M over 3 years was a gross overpayment for derosa was preposterous, and looks even more ridiculous now. looking at PECOTA's projection that derosa would be worth $6.9M this year, i'd have to guess that he was worth about $7.5-8M last year, so he's just about earned his $13M in half the length of the contract. in terms of value, the DeRosa signing has to be regarded as one of the bigger bargains of the 2006-07 offseason.

i enjoy this one, because derosa has basically been todd walker with a very slightly better bat and a much better glove: that snow ball has melted.

if anybody is in the mood to see a lot of people who were really wrong, click this

strange, as more than any other, that was the year that made me wish that i wasn't a cub fan

this is probably true, but after seeing what the twins got for santana, i wonder if you're really going to have to back the truck up for 2 months of sabathia.

i have been impressed with gallagher's stuff lately. i thought it might be kinda fringy for a major leaguer but he looks really solid. if he tightens his command just a bit as he matures, he definitely has a place as a #2/3 starter in the big leagues.

september: michael strahan un-retires.

http://pub.tv2.no/multimedia/na/archive/00253/jenter__sverige__vm_253020x.jpg

red sox, but i'm rooting for the white sox because they aren't that good.

the cubs are good enough to make the playoffs with gallagher and marquis/whoever as the 4th/5th starters. if you're going to trade for another starting pitcher, it should be someone who is good enough to pitch in the playoffs. i don't feel good about randy wolf or gil meche on the mound in the playoffs, so i guess that leaves burnett.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/020705weaver.html

the speculation coming into this year was that burnett would certainly opt out at the end of the year, given that he's been a very good pitcher for the last four years, and he'd have the opportunity to get another multi-year contract.

is that really true? we drafted a guy in the 22nd round who can throw 96 mph? pretty much anyone who is a prep and can throw a ball 95 or higher goes in the first round or two - see colt griffin.

right, so because the guy is 22 years old and in high A, one would hope that he'd have the highest OPS of any player in High A except for two guys in the california league who play in bandboxes. got it.

haha phil jackson answered the first question of his press conference bitching about the referee work and saying he'd never seen anything like it. apparently he has forgotten the days of coaching the bulls.

it's pretty awesome that kerry is doing this well. i hope it lasts.

man when he is throwing strikes, he might have the best stuff of anyone in the game.

fantastic time for joe morgan to bring up the vignette about joe torre's family

interesting way to describe one of the best pitchers in baseball

way to step in the bucket, soriano

of course they have to mention the ground out to the right side, because that was why the cubs scored another run in the inning

cut the crap

haha joe really garbled that one