Cards have 3/5 of luckiest NL pitchers

[JGalt73]

Reinforcing the fickle nature of wins and losses, BP looks at actual pitcher W-L records and what would be expected from the number of innings pitched and runs scored compared to historical controls. The Cards pitchers are certainly helped by one the the NL's best offenses on their side.

 

BP Link

 

Your top 5 luckiest NL pitchers:

 

1) Matt Morris is 14-6 should be 9-9

2) Livan Hernandez is 14-6 should be 11-10

3) Mark Mulder is 15-6 should be 11-8

4) Wandy Rodriguez is 9-5 should be 5-7

5) Chris Carpenter is 19-4 should be 15-7

 

The Cubs:

 

14) Prior 10-5 should be 12-10

33) Zambrano 11-5 should be 12-8

57) Williams 4-5 should be 3-5

64) Wood 3-3 is right on

67) Maddux 10-11 is right on

[indifferent]

JGalt, I've kept on eye on that also. Altogether that puts the Cards starters at 70-39 when their expected win/loss is 55-45.

 

Suppan at 12-10 should be 9-9

Marquis at 10-13 should be 9-11

 

That puts the Cubs starters at 41-35 when their expected win/loss is 44-42 (included G. Rusch at 3-6, should be 4-5).

 

Both teams are lucky when looking at expected win/loss.

[1908]

Both teams are lucky when looking at expected win/loss.

That's technically true but Cards pitchers are 31 games over .500 when they should be 10, and Cubs pitchers are 6 games over .500 when they should be 2.

[indifferent]

Agreed, when you're looking at wins. Losses Cards gain 6 and Cubs gain 7. That tells me the fact the Cards pitchers have more decisions (albeit favorable ones) factors in. Bullpen factors in as well.

[JGalt73]

JGalt, I've kept on eye on that also. Altogether that puts the Cards starters at 70-39 when their expected win/loss is 55-45.

 

Suppan at 12-10 should be 9-9

Marquis at 10-13 should be 9-11

 

That puts the Cubs starters at 41-35 when their expected win/loss is 44-42 (included G. Rusch at 3-6, should be 4-5).

 

Both teams are lucky when looking at expected win/loss.

 

You are correct. W-L records for starters are all a bit of luck - so maybe I should just stop there as this thread quickly then becomes pointless (and I started it!). "Luck" in the BP statistic is only W-L record related, so perhaps it is a bit unfair to use "luckiest" in it's common usage. However, using the numbers you've supplied above the Cards SP record is still more fraught with 'luck' - Actual W% vs Expected W%: Cubs .539 vs .511 ; Cards .642 vs .550.

[K-Town]

Wouldn't this tell us that

 

1) The Cards have done a good job of generating offense

 

2) The Cards have a good bullpen

 

3) The Cards play very good defense

 

 

I'm not that familiar with the stat, but what else would cause "luck" for a pitcher? And if those 3 factors are the main reasons for the extra wins, then is it really "luck", other than the fact that they're lucky to be pitching on a very good team?

[indifferent]

Wouldn't this tell us that

 

1) The Cards have done a good job of generating offense

 

2) The Cards have a good bullpen

 

3) The Cards play very good defense

 

 

I'm not that familiar with the stat, but what else would cause "luck" for a pitcher? And if those 3 factors are the main reasons for the extra wins, then is it really "luck", other than the fact that they're lucky to be pitching on a very good team?

 

That's his point, the expected wins/loss means our pitchers are not as "good" (comparatively or isolated) as their win/loss indicates.

 

And jgalt, I think it's an interesting point, so why the need to end the discussion? It's interesting to note the Cards are 19-19 in one run games this season also.

[1908]

Wouldn't this tell us that

 

1) The Cards have done a good job of generating offense

 

2) The Cards have a good bullpen

 

3) The Cards play very good defense

 

 

I'm not that familiar with the stat, but what else would cause "luck" for a pitcher? And if those 3 factors are the main reasons for the extra wins, then is it really "luck", other than the fact that they're lucky to be pitching on a very good team?

 

That's his point, the expected wins/loss means our pitchers are not as "good" (comparatively or isolated) as their win/loss indicates.

It also suggest that W-L records are a poor way to evaluate a pitcher's performance.

[K-Town]

Wouldn't this tell us that

 

1) The Cards have done a good job of generating offense

 

2) The Cards have a good bullpen

 

3) The Cards play very good defense

 

 

I'm not that familiar with the stat, but what else would cause "luck" for a pitcher? And if those 3 factors are the main reasons for the extra wins, then is it really "luck", other than the fact that they're lucky to be pitching on a very good team?

 

That's his point, the expected wins/loss means our pitchers are not as "good" (comparatively or isolated) as their win/loss indicates.

It also suggest that W-L records are a poor way to evaluate a pitcher's performance.

 

 

I think we all agree that not many stats (including wins and losses for a pitcher) tell the entire story by themselves, which is why most of use try to look at the bigger picture. I don't think that anybody is going to make an argument that Jeff Suppan is a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano, just because he's won more games.

[1908]

I don't think that anybody is going to make an argument that Jeff Suppan is a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano, just because he's won more games.

Or that Carpenter is a better pitcher than Clemens... :D

[indifferent]

I don't think that anybody is going to make an argument that Jeff Suppan is a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano, just because he's won more games.

Or that Carpenter is a better pitcher than Clemens... :D

 

Bingo! I didn't want to add fuel to the fire, but this post best supports arguments for Clemens as CY (Carp 19-4 should be 15-7 and Clemens 11-6 should be 15-4).

[K-Town]

I don't think that anybody is going to make an argument that Jeff Suppan is a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano, just because he's won more games.

Or that Carpenter is a better pitcher than Clemens... :D

 

Wrong thread.

 

Come to think of it, there is no "best pitcher" thread. I have seen a "Cy Young" thread, however.

[1908]

Come to think of it, there is no "best pitcher" thread. I have seen a "Cy Young" thread, however.

What is the Cy Young award? That's what I typed into Google. Here's the first response:

 

"In baseball, the Cy Young Award is an honor given annually to the best pitchers in the Major Leagues. The award was first introduced in 1956 by Commissioner Ford Frick in honor of Hall of Fame pitcher Cy Young who passed away in 1955. The award was originally given to the single best pitcher in the major leagues. In 1967, the practice began of honoring one pitcher in each league."

[K-Town]

Come to think of it, there is no "best pitcher" thread. I have seen a "Cy Young" thread, however.

What is the Cy Young award? That's what I typed into Google. Here's the first response:

 

"In baseball, the Cy Young Award is an honor given annually to the best pitchers in the Major Leagues. The award was first introduced in 1956 by Commissioner Ford Frick in honor of Hall of Fame pitcher Cy Young who passed away in 1955. The award was originally given to the single best pitcher in the major leagues. In 1967, the practice began of honoring one pitcher in each league."

 

Whose opinion is that?

[indifferent]

jgalt, just to clarify, you're not insinuating that the expected wins/loss narrows the gap between the Cards and the Cubs, are you?

 

I took it as a knock against W/L as a means of gauging pitchers only.

[1908]

Whose opinion is that?

It's Wikipedia's definition. Can you find another on that doesn't mention the Cy Young being an award for the best pitcher in the league? What do you think the award is for?

[reggiemiller rules]

You know what else the cards pitching staff has all of them are in the top 20 in groundball to flyball ratio. AT least they were a few weeks ago. This means they all keep the ball down dont let up many home runs and get lots of double plays. So lets not all say it is luck they are all getting a lot of groundballs and keeping the ball in the park.

[K-Town]

Whose opinion is that?

It's Wikipedia's definition. Can you find another on that doesn't mention the Cy Young being an award for the best pitcher in the league? What do you think the award is for?

 

The most productive pitcher, maybe? The most valuable pitcher, maybe? The pitcher who has helped his team the most?

 

If you want to give the award to the best pitcher, then give it to Chad Cordero. He's been GREAT. Better ERA than Clemens. Better OPS Against than Clemens. Better K/BB than Clemens. More saves than Clemens. He's helped his team in more games than Clemens. Same WHIP. Only 9 fewer wins than Clemens (Comparable to the difference between Carpenter and Clemens).

 

There's your man.

[1908]

You know what else the cards pitching staff has all of them are in the top 20 in groundball to flyball ratio. AT least they were a few weeks ago. This means they all keep the ball down dont let up many home runs and get lots of double plays. So lets not all say it is luck they are all getting a lot of groundballs and keeping the ball in the park.

That fact is already included in the number of runs they've given up this year.

[indifferent]

You know what else the cards pitching staff has all of them are in the top 20 in groundball to flyball ratio. AT least they were a few weeks ago. This means they all keep the ball down dont let up many home runs and get lots of double plays. So lets not all say it is luck they are all getting a lot of groundballs and keeping the ball in the park.

 

Very true, but that doesn't change expected win/loss. All that indicates is the Cards pitching staff pitch to their strength, inducing ground balls. Cards are not a K staff (with the exception of Carpenter although his high Ks are almost incidental), quite the opposite they pitch to contact for the most part.

[1908]

Whose opinion is that?

It's Wikipedia's definition. Can you find another on that doesn't mention the Cy Young being an award for the best pitcher in the league? What do you think the award is for?

The most productive pitcher, maybe? The most valuable pitcher, maybe? The pitcher who has helped his team the most?

Couldn't find a different definition, huh?

[K-Town]

I think that 1908 is right. The Cardinal starters are VERY lucky to be playing for the team they're playing for.

 

I also think that the Cards are VERY lucky to have them. The Cards' staff has the best ERA in the NL, 2nd best WHIP, 2nd best OPS against. I wouldn't trade the Cards' staff for any in baseball.

[K-Town]

Whose opinion is that?

It's Wikipedia's definition. Can you find another on that doesn't mention the Cy Young being an award for the best pitcher in the league? What do you think the award is for?

The most productive pitcher, maybe? The most valuable pitcher, maybe? The pitcher who has helped his team the most?

Couldn't find a different definition, huh?

 

Didn't look until just now. I haven't dug too deep, but I did find this little tidbit:

 

Did you know... The record for the most major league baseball career innings is held by Cy Young, with 7,356 innings.

 

 

Seems to me that in the spirit of the award, innings pitched would be extremely important.

[K-Town]

Whose opinion is that?

It's Wikipedia's definition. Can you find another on that doesn't mention the Cy Young being an award for the best pitcher in the league? What do you think the award is for?

The most productive pitcher, maybe? The most valuable pitcher, maybe? The pitcher who has helped his team the most?

Couldn't find a different definition, huh?

 

Didn't look until just now. I haven't dug too deep, but I did find this little tidbit:

 

Did you know... The record for the most major league baseball career innings is held by Cy Young, with 7,356 innings.

 

 

Seems to me that in the spirit of the award, innings pitched would be extremely important.

 

 

 

He pitched for 22 years and won 511 games which is still a record today.

 

He holds the major league record for complete games with 751.

 

He is fourth on the all time list for shutouts with 76.

 

He led the league in shutouts seven times.

 

He led the league in wins four times.

 

 

 

Sounds alot like an award that's custom-made for a guy like Chris Carpenter.

 

I didn't find anything about him that's related to ERA.

[1908]

Didn't look until just now. I haven't dug too deep, but I did find this little tidbit:

 

Did you know... The record for the most major league baseball career innings is held by Cy Young, with 7,356 innings.

 

Seems to me that in the spirit of the award, innings pitched would be extremely important.

This is getting silly. You seem to be grasping at straws now. I'm out.