Lawton to Cubs for Gerut

[dalgreen]

.

 

-The Cubs give up youth for a 33 year-old rental.

-The Cubs take on a ton of salary.

-This move does not take the Cubs from a .500 team to a .667 team (which is what is required from here to the end to take the wild card).

 

Well, I was origionally not in favor of this trade either. Not so much because I didnt like it, but moreso because I wanted somebody bigger. Now that I've had a night to think of it, I really do like this deal. To answer some of your concerns.

 

 

If you wanted someone bigger, were you ready to give up somebody big? For example, Hill, Pie, Murton, Harvey, etc? That's why I didn't want a big deal. The only way a big deal was going to be done is if 1) we gave up top tier prospects, or 2) get a high priced big time player whose team is looking to get rid of money. Either way, I didn't want to go.

 

Hill, Murton, Harvey, etc. Yes.

Pie, No.

 

And no kidding you'd have to get a high priced big time player from a team who was looking to get rid of money. Thats how most big players are moved. I would much rather see Adam Dunn patrolling left then Matt Lawton in center/left. However, I am still very happy with what we got.

 

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn? What I don't get is how people thought Dunn would get shipped when he should be the cornerstone of that team. I see no reason why fans would go to the park to see them play if Dunn wasn't on the team. Griffey is not the Griffey from 5-10 years ago. I still think Griffey may be dealt somewhere.

[dalgreen]

.

 

-The Cubs give up youth for a 33 year-old rental.

-The Cubs take on a ton of salary.

-This move does not take the Cubs from a .500 team to a .667 team (which is what is required from here to the end to take the wild card).

 

Well, I was origionally not in favor of this trade either. Not so much because I didnt like it, but moreso because I wanted somebody bigger. Now that I've had a night to think of it, I really do like this deal. To answer some of your concerns.

 

 

If you wanted someone bigger, were you ready to give up somebody big? For example, Hill, Pie, Murton, Harvey, etc? That's why I didn't want a big deal. The only way a big deal was going to be done is if 1) we gave up top tier prospects, or 2) get a high priced big time player whose team is looking to get rid of money. Either way, I didn't want to go.

I would have given up Hill (in a package) to get Dunn, but only Dunn. Youth for youth, exchange of needs.

 

Keep Pie at all costs.

 

You can't just say in a package. Who would the package consist of? I'd equate Cincy's asking price of Dunn to be what you'd ask a team what you'd exchange Aramis Ramirez for.

[katway]

But the bottom line for me is that this move doesn't take the Cubs to contender. And I don't believe relying on 3 injury comebacks does either. That is a huge longshot bet.

 

So even if Lawton is an upgrade right now, he doesn't make the club better for next year or beyond. Hendry needed to take a firm stance: seller or buyer. Make your run or look to next year. He did neither IMO. Now I am as big a Hendry supporter as anyone, but I think he blew it here.

 

Lawton turns 34 in November. If he sticks around for a few more years, how is that any better than the current Hollandsworth situation? The board will have a heart attack if Lawton takes playing time next year from any Cub farmhand, because all of them around here are the next coming of Andre.

 

So Lawton is a rental. LF and CF are almost assuredly available for a Cub kid to grab it in ST. Acquiring Lawton is completely lateral IMO.

 

Aren't most deadline trades between buyers and sellers youth for more expensive and experienced talent? Doesn't this trade also qualify under a need for need analysis. Pirates needed payroll relief, we needed a leadoff hitter. We both got what we needed.

 

In any event, if Lawton does not stick around, it really isn't a big deal since we have some youthful outfielders that Gerut was not going to play in front of and Gerut is not a tremendous loss for the future. In terms of his future, Gerut was not going to be our starter and would have likely filled the role of fourth outfielder.

 

I could understand the criticism if Gerut is going to be as good a hitter as Lawton, but I really don't see that happening. In essence, we gave up a youthful, less talented, player that was never going to be a starter for an aging, more talented (2 time all-star) player that is a starter and can continue to be a starter for us if we resign him.

[erik316wttn]

Would he be good in Center? Can he play it? If so, then you can move Hairston to left and platoon him with Murton.

 

Lawton

Walker

Nomar

Lee

Ramirez

Burnitz

Barrett

Hairston?

 

I hate having Hairston batting 8th, but I don't know where else to put him in that lineup.

[CarolinaCubFan]

ESPN reported that Lawton and Farnsworth where the two biggest names on the move, in a way, we had an intrest in both. The market was tight and I think Hendry did right in keeping our prospects this season. Even if Lawton slows a little in the second half, he's still going to have a pretty good season with us.

 

For that I applaud you Jim Hendry. Derrek Lee has had an awesome season and picking up Lawton may not take us to the World Series, but it does help Lee's case. Not the move I hoped for, but it was a classy move on the Cubs part.

[OleMissCub]

Hey y'all, I just realized something. Go take a look at Kenny Lofton's stats for Pittsburgh at the time he was traded to us. Lawton has him beat in every single category except SB (two behind where Lofton was) and BA (4pts behind). So, what I mean is, Lawton could really prove to be a sparkplug. And everyone complains about how dreadful his second halfs were, well you can look around the bigs and players stats usually die after the allstar break if they are on crappy teams....unless it is a contract year. So maybe he'll be happier playing for a contending team instead of a gutter team. Just a few thoughts.

[badger1679666666]

.

 

-The Cubs give up youth for a 33 year-old rental.

-The Cubs take on a ton of salary.

-This move does not take the Cubs from a .500 team to a .667 team (which is what is required from here to the end to take the wild card).

 

Well, I was origionally not in favor of this trade either. Not so much because I didnt like it, but moreso because I wanted somebody bigger. Now that I've had a night to think of it, I really do like this deal. To answer some of your concerns.

 

- I doubt Lawton will simply be a rental. I could see him sticking around a few more years. And Gerut was young, big whoop. He had a good but (according to those who interpret stats such as babip better than I) insanely lucky year. And he hasnt come close to returning to those numbers.

 

- A ton of salary?? The pirates are giving us 1 million to go towards his salary. So, that takes it down to 6.5 million dollars. Thats hardly a ton.

 

- This move alone does not. But This combined with getting Nomar back in the lineup. And williamson and wood in the pen, that very well might.

 

The only thing that concerns me is his pre/post ASG splits. He is always very good the first half, and very bad teh second. But we will see. I still like the deal very much.

 

I believe we are only paying 3 million or so, since half his salary has already been payed plus 1 mil.

 

Can someone post the total amount of salary we are paying?

[Jake]

Some people are never happy.

 

 

Hendry's at least trying. He might even give Lawton an extension. We could be fans of Cincy, or Texas, who have ZERO chance of getting better.

Hey, what about us????

[HoopsCubs]

I have not read all the pages of this thread, so I have no idea if I am in the minority or the majority. But I think this is a horrible trade.

 

-The Cubs give up youth for a 33 year-old rental.

-The Cubs take on a ton of salary.

-This move does not take the Cubs from a .500 team to a .667 team (which is what is required from here to the end to take the wild card).

 

Ok, so Lawton has a higher OBP than Gerut. Big deal. You don't give up the inexpensive youth for an expensive veteran if you aren't going for broke. Basically, Hendry went half-way, which adds no value to this team long-term.

 

I'll root for Lawton, but I think this was a stupid trade.

 

You're kidding, right? You're upset that the Cubs traded Jody Gerut and took on about $1.3M in payroll to get a guy who has a .380 OBP this season, and a .431 OBP in July? We've been talking about OBP all year, and now we got a guy who excels in that role, so we're still complaining?

 

Come on now. Hendry decided Rich Hill and Felix Pie were too valuable to trade - I can't argue with that. It would have been those guys and maybe 1 or 2 other players for Dunn or Soriano. Too steep. Let's be honest - no one guy was available, who could put us over the top per se. It's going to take a collection of improvement to make it happen. I love this deal. Hendry stole him.

[treebird]

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn?

 

I've read in a couple places that the A's gm (Billy Beane) called up the Reds gm (Dan O’Brien) and asked about the availability of Adam Dunn. O'Brien said that unless the name Rich Harden was going to come up, they had nothing to discuss. That was the end of that.

 

O'Brien apparently doesn't like being a gm or something, because if he thinks the best strategy is to make insane trade offers to other teams and then do nothing, he's going to struggle.

[rocket]

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn? What I don't get is how people thought Dunn would get shipped when he should be the cornerstone of that team. I see no reason why fans would go to the park to see them play if Dunn wasn't on the team. Griffey is not the Griffey from 5-10 years ago. I still think Griffey may be dealt somewhere.

 

If you're the Reds GM, what realistic chance do you have at signing Dunn when he becomes a free agent? If you're the Reds GM, how much money do you want Dunn taking up when resources are limited?

[cubweiser03]

.

 

-The Cubs give up youth for a 33 year-old rental.

-The Cubs take on a ton of salary.

-This move does not take the Cubs from a .500 team to a .667 team (which is what is required from here to the end to take the wild card).

 

Well, I was origionally not in favor of this trade either. Not so much because I didnt like it, but moreso because I wanted somebody bigger. Now that I've had a night to think of it, I really do like this deal. To answer some of your concerns.

 

- I doubt Lawton will simply be a rental. I could see him sticking around a few more years. And Gerut was young, big whoop. He had a good but (according to those who interpret stats such as babip better than I) insanely lucky year. And he hasnt come close to returning to those numbers.

 

- A ton of salary?? The pirates are giving us 1 million to go towards his salary. So, that takes it down to 6.5 million dollars. Thats hardly a ton.

 

- This move alone does not. But This combined with getting Nomar back in the lineup. And williamson and wood in the pen, that very well might.

 

The only thing that concerns me is his pre/post ASG splits. He is always very good the first half, and very bad teh second. But we will see. I still like the deal very much.

 

I believe we are only paying 3 million or so, since half his salary has already been payed plus 1 mil.

 

Can someone post the total amount of salary we are paying?

 

From the Trib. Because the Pirates were involved, this was a deal about money. Lawton, a free agent after the season, is still owed about $2.25 million this season, with the Pirates believed to be picking up about half of it but getting an inexpensive player in return.

 

FWIW, i dont think the Cubs have had to pay much of nomars salary this year up to this point. Since hes been out longer than a month i think the insurance would of kicked in.

[Jake]

Awesome trade. Not the big move we were looking for, but if he can throw a .380 obp up for the rest of the season, it's a great trade. Im shocked the Pirates didn't get a minor leaguer out of this deal to go along with Gerut.

While his OBP is pretty decent, he's still a .275 hitter. On an expiring contract. And his defense is pretty suspect (There were times to cringe watching him chase some balls down this year) And then there was the baserunning....

 

Don't overvalue him.

[Jake]

From the Trib. Because the Pirates were involved, this was a deal about money. Lawton, a free agent after the season, is still owed about $2.25 million this season, with the Pirates believed to be picking up about half of it but getting an inexpensive player in return.

Not really. we're only saving a little over $1mil. This was about getting something for a guy who was not going to resign. And getting younger. I suspect, with Gerut going to arbitration in the offseason, he'll earn between 1.5 mil and 2.3, depending on what he does for the rest of the year. so, there's really not much of a saving.

 

The Pirates have played the year $4mil under budget (Remember, you guys had outbid us to get Burnitz.) For better or worse, the stupid trades to save money (Aramis) are a thing of the past.

[hawkeyecub]

Awesome trade. Not the big move we were looking for, but if he can throw a .380 obp up for the rest of the season, it's a great trade. Im shocked the Pirates didn't get a minor leaguer out of this deal to go along with Gerut.

While his OBP is pretty decent, he's still a .275 hitter. On an expiring contract. And his defense is pretty suspect (There were times to cringe watching him chase some balls down this year) And then there was the baserunning....

 

Don't overvalue him.

 

His OBP is first among all leadoff men in the NL and 2nd in all of baseball behind Brian Roberts. He also has the highest SLG of all leadoff men in the NL and is on pace to swipe 25 bases (although his percentage is not good).

 

There's nothing wrong with being a .275 hitter who takes 75+ walks and can hit 15-20 home runs with decent speed. The defense is a concern, but we haven't exactly had Gold Glovers in the outfield this year and it hasn't cost us much.

 

It was a great move and came at a low price. If we wanted a leadoff/top of the order guy, we couldn't have done much better.

[badger1679666666]

Awesome trade. Not the big move we were looking for, but if he can throw a .380 obp up for the rest of the season, it's a great trade. Im shocked the Pirates didn't get a minor leaguer out of this deal to go along with Gerut.

While his OBP is pretty decent, he's still a .275 hitter. On an expiring contract. And his defense is pretty suspect (There were times to cringe watching him chase some balls down this year) And then there was the baserunning....

 

Don't overvalue him.

 

He's also moving from a team that blows (no offense to you personally), to a contender(how realistic is yet to be determined). Don't undervalue the motivation of playing games that matter and being surrounded by real major league talent.

 

Edit to Add: His OBP is more than decent, it's the best in the NL amongst LO hitters I believe. His defense is certainly suspect, but you give a little to get a little.

Edited August 1, 2005 by badger

[J.R.]

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn? What I don't get is how people thought Dunn would get shipped when he should be the cornerstone of that team. I see no reason why fans would go to the park to see them play if Dunn wasn't on the team. Griffey is not the Griffey from 5-10 years ago. I still think Griffey may be dealt somewhere.

 

Word was that O'Brien wanted the suitors' top two prospects in exhange for Dunn. Maybe that's justified, maybe not - I just can't believe they did nothing. A couple of their surplus sluggers should have netted a talent windfall given the tight market.

 

No one wants to see the Reds as it is. Everyone around here knows the ownership is terrible, and sees no sign of a coherent plan for success. If they had any sense they'd blow the whole thing up and rebuild a new Red Machine from within.

 

All the tools - ballpark, market, tradition - are in place in Cincinnati. They'd be dangerous if they only had a brain.

[Jake]

Sorry, I havent read this whole thread, but the Pirates are giving one million to the Cubs. So this was a player for player trade with even money? WHy would the Pirates do this trade?

We're getting nothing for Lawton at the end of the year. Now, we have a former rookie of the year (OK, it was sporting news, not the real award)

 

He's left handed, and we have a short porch.

 

He'll platoon w/ Restovich.

 

So, we've opened a spot to give two guys who have a future with us a chance to do something.

 

The trade wasn't about short term money, but about getting younger.

[Jake]

He's also moving from a team that blows (no offense to you personally), to a contender(how realistic is yet to be determined). Don't undervalue the motivation of playing games that matter and being surrounded by real major league talent.

This is true. And, he'll have a better lineup hitting behind him, which will give him better pitches to swing at.

 

Edit to Add: His OBP is more than decent, it's the best in the NL amongst LO hitters I believe. His defense is certainly suspect, but you give a little to get a little.

Absolutely.

[dalgreen]

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn?

 

I've read in a couple places that the A's gm (Billy Beane) called up the Reds gm (Dan O’Brien) and asked about the availability of Adam Dunn. O'Brien said that unless the name Rich Harden was going to come up, they had nothing to discuss. That was the end of that.

 

O'Brien apparently doesn't like being a gm or something, because if he thinks the best strategy is to make insane trade offers to other teams and then do nothing, he's going to struggle.

 

I don't understand why that is an insane offer. People are saying how great Dunn is and then expect the Reds to only ask for peanuts for Dunn. He should be the cornerstone of that team and the Reds should expect rightful compensation for a player like him.

[Jake]

Can someone post the total amount of salary we are paying?

Cleveland is still paying some of his salary. I beleive the balance of the year was split between us & you guys - a little over $1mil each.

[Warren Brusstar]

Sorry, I havent read this whole thread, but the Pirates are giving one million to the Cubs. So this was a player for player trade with even money? WHy would the Pirates do this trade?

We're getting nothing for Lawton at the end of the year. Now, we have a former rookie of the year (OK, it was sporting news, not the real award)

 

He's left handed, and we have a short porch.

 

He'll platoon w/ Restovich.

 

So, we've opened a spot to give two guys who have a future with us a chance to do something.

 

The trade wasn't about short term money, but about getting younger.

 

This trade absolutely made sense for both teams. It's the rare both-teams-did-well trade.

 

The Cubs got a better player, who fills a need as they pursue the wild card.

 

The Pirates got a younger player, who they can keep under contract at a reasonable price for several years.

[dalgreen]

Let's play GM for a minute. If you are the Reds' GM, what would you have asked the Cubs for in exchange for Dunn? What I don't get is how people thought Dunn would get shipped when he should be the cornerstone of that team. I see no reason why fans would go to the park to see them play if Dunn wasn't on the team. Griffey is not the Griffey from 5-10 years ago. I still think Griffey may be dealt somewhere.

 

If you're the Reds GM, what realistic chance do you have at signing Dunn when he becomes a free agent? If you're the Reds GM, how much money do you want Dunn taking up when resources are limited?

 

Answering my question with a question, eh? Okay. I'll answer. If I'm the Reds, I look at Dunn how the Cubs look at Aramis Ramirez, as a cornerstone. The Griffey deal they have stinks, but I still would look to move him although I think he has three years left on his contract. If he's able to play the last two months healthy, he may be wanted in the offseason by a couple of teams. Basically, I'd center the offense around Lopez, Dunn and Kearns. Casey and Pena should be shipped for pitching. It makes absolutely no sense for the Reds to not try and lock up Dunn. But the Reds organization has not been accused of being too bright lately. Politically, they should lock up Dunn to justify the public spending on Great American Ballpark.

[Guest]

If I'm the Reds, I look at Dunn how the Cubs look at Aramis Ramirez, as a cornerstone. The Griffey deal they have stinks, but I still would look to move him although I think he has three years left on his contract. If he's able to play the last two months healthy, he may be wanted in the offseason by a couple of teams. Basically, I'd center the offense around Lopez, Dunn and Kearns. Casey and Pena should be shipped for pitching. It makes absolutely no sense for the Reds to not try and lock up Dunn. But the Reds organization has not been accused of being too bright lately. Politically, they should lock up Dunn to justify the public spending on Great American Ballpark.

That's pretty much what I'd do if I were the Reds. Junior has had a few rough years with the Reds, but he's still very productive when healthy. Given the lack of impact bats likely to be on the market this offseason, I would think that some teams would be interested in picking up the majority of Griffey's remaining contract. (Particularly if Boston and the Yankees are both looking for new CF this offseason...) If Cincy can find a team to take on just 75% of his remaining contract that would free up about $10 million a year for the next few years, providing plenty of ammunition for locking up Dunn for a while. And before anyone says that nobody would take on 75% of Griffey's contract, keep in mind that translates into barely over $30 million over three years.

 

The biggest obstacle to all this, I think, would be Griffey himself. I'm pretty sure he has a full no-trade clause and could nix any deal the Reds put together. It also seems as if Junior is pretty set on finishing out his contract in Ohio. If that's the case it starts to make much more sense for the Reds to trade Dunn.

[JGalt73]

BP's Chris Kahrl weighs in on the trade...

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4283

 

giving another positive review....

 

"Kudos to Jim Hendry for pulling off either the best or tied for the best deal of the deadline (tied with the Braves getting Farnsworth)."