Ken Rosenthal's Contenders to Watch

[johnnyba99]

Maybe im thinking of the wrong Texas OFer but I thought Dullucci was injured and possibly out for the year.

 

You've got the wrong OF.

 

Laynce Nix is that OF. What about Catalanotto? Possibly a cheaper version of Dellucci, although both would need to platoon with Murton (check the vs. lefty split, ugly).

[TheDude]

The love for Delucci on this board is mystifying. Why is a 31 year-old career journeyman in LF going to revive this season again? When Niefi had a career one-third-year everybody was waiting for the balloon to pop, but for some reason it doesn't apply to Delucci.

 

Anyway, I'd like to see Kearns in LF. If it works for this year, great. If not, next year the Cubs will have Kearns, Pie, Patterson, Gerut and Murton battling it out for all three OF positions, or 2/3 if a big name OF fills one of those spots in the offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There was no guarantee that Lee would be better than Choi 2 years later or that ARam would ever be good. Standing pat will just continue the long tradition of not winning it all. There's no guarantee Walker will be healthy next week either. Gmab about it be quite likely Soriano's worse. Deal Walker, Patterson, Mitre and another prospect.

 

I never said to stand pat, I even said to go after Dellucci in this thread. The fact is, Walker has been more productive than Soriano this year, despite having a lower OPS. That's why his low OBP is a problem. Is your proposition a suggestion to trade for Soriano?

 

More productive?? Are you serious?? He's played 45 less games for starters.

 

Runs Created/G, Second Baseman with at least 225 Plate Appearances.

 

Roberts 9.1

Kent 8.1

Utley 8.1

Kennedy 7.4

Freel 7.1

Castillo 7.1

Walker 6.4

Biggio 6.1

Giles 6.0

Durham 6.0

Ellis 6.0

Figgins 6.0

Counsell 5.9

Aurilia 5.8

Soriano 5.5

 

That value is park adjusted, BTW

[TheDude]

Runs Created/G, Second Baseman with at least 225 Plate Appearances.

 

Roberts 9.1

Kent 8.1

Utley 8.1

Kennedy 7.4

Freel 7.1

Castillo 7.1

Walker 6.4

Biggio 6.1

Giles 6.0

Durham 6.0

Ellis 6.0

Figgins 6.0

Counsell 5.9

Aurilia 5.8

Soriano 5.5

 

That value is park adjusted, BTW

Can I ask your source? Not because I doubt it's accuracy, but because I have been looking for a source of such numbers.

[CubfaninCA]

There was no guarantee that Lee would be better than Choi 2 years later or that ARam would ever be good. Standing pat will just continue the long tradition of not winning it all. There's no guarantee Walker will be healthy next week either. Gmab about it be quite likely Soriano's worse. Deal Walker, Patterson, Mitre and another prospect.

 

I never said to stand pat, I even said to go after Dellucci in this thread. The fact is, Walker has been more productive than Soriano this year, despite having a lower OPS. That's why his low OBP is a problem. Is your proposition a suggestion to trade for Soriano?

 

More productive?? Are you serious?? He's played 45 less games for starters.

 

Runs Created/G, Second Baseman with at least 225 Plate Appearances.

 

Roberts 9.1

Kent 8.1

Utley 8.1

Kennedy 7.4

Freel 7.1

Castillo 7.1

Walker 6.4

Biggio 6.1

Giles 6.0

Durham 6.0

Ellis 6.0

Figgins 6.0

Counsell 5.9

Aurilia 5.8

Soriano 5.5

 

That value is park adjusted, BTW

 

How do they adjust for parks?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The love for Delucci on this board is mystifying. Why is a 31 year-old career journeyman in LF going to revive this season again? When Niefi had a career one-third-year everybody was waiting for the balloon to pop, but for some reason it doesn't apply to Delucci.

 

Dellucci credits his improvement to laser-eye surgery that has helped with his production increase. His AVG and SLG are pretty close to career norms, but his increased walk rate(again, credited to improved vision), make him more valuable than previously.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Runs Created/G, Second Baseman with at least 225 Plate Appearances.

 

Roberts 9.1

Kent 8.1

Utley 8.1

Kennedy 7.4

Freel 7.1

Castillo 7.1

Walker 6.4

Biggio 6.1

Giles 6.0

Durham 6.0

Ellis 6.0

Figgins 6.0

Counsell 5.9

Aurilia 5.8

Soriano 5.5

 

That value is park adjusted, BTW

Can I ask your source? Not because I doubt it's accuracy, but because I have been looking for a source of such numbers.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats2005/

[CubfaninCA]

I wonder if they factor in that perhaps a guy hits better when he's not spending nights in some hotel room, but rather at his home/familar surroundings. :o

[CubfaninCA]

Runs Created/G, Second Baseman with at least 225 Plate Appearances.

 

Roberts 9.1

Kent 8.1

Utley 8.1

Kennedy 7.4

Freel 7.1

Castillo 7.1

Walker 6.4

Biggio 6.1

Giles 6.0

Durham 6.0

Ellis 6.0

Figgins 6.0

Counsell 5.9

Aurilia 5.8

Soriano 5.5

 

That value is park adjusted, BTW

Can I ask your source? Not because I doubt it's accuracy, but because I have been looking for a source of such numbers.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats2005/

 

Looks like some Bill James stats that overvalues the walk. Some people use bias to try to prove their point. Some of James theories are far from perfect.

[JGalt73]

BP's VORP ratings:

 

1. Brian Roberts 54.1

2. Jeff Kent 38.0

3. Chase Utley 36.7

4. Alfonso Soriano 28.7

5. Craig Biggio 25.7

6. Marcus Giles 25.6

7. Chone Figgins 23.6

8. Craig Counsell 20.4

9. Ray Durham 20.1

10. Robinson Cano 19.6

11. Ryan Freel 19.4

12. Luis Castillo 17.9

13. Adam Kennedy 16.6

14. Todd Walker 16.0

 

VORP is cumulative, but is also presented in a per/game format. If you look at VORP as a rate/game Soriano and Walker start to even out...Soriano 0.305 : Walker 0.303.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=89

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I asked this before when Soriano was brought up. Is VORP park adjusted? I find it really hard to believe that someone who can't hit better than Neifi Perez away from a hitters park rates better than the majority of major league second basemen.

[JGalt73]

I asked this before when Soriano was brought up. Is VORP park adjusted? I find it really hard to believe that someone who can't hit better than Neifi Perez away from a hitters park rates better than the majority of major league second basemen.

 

VORP is park adjusted (or at least was at inception using the previous 3 years of park specific data).

[NorthsideAvenger]

What people are forgetting is that Hendry has already stated he won't make a trade unless it helps for 05 and BEYOND.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-kiley12.html

 

As it implies in this article, he is looking for somebody can help now and beyond. I don't think Delucci and Soriano fits into what Hendry wants to do. If you haven't notice but Hendry has added guys who have the ability to draw a walk (Gerut, Murton, etc) so Soriano is definately out. Delucci really doesn't factor into the Cubs plans after this yr, so I doubt Delucci/Soriano are EVEN on Hendry mind.

 

As somebody mention earlier, I believe Kearns is the bat the Cubs are going to acquire. They love him, he loves the Cubs. He's young, reasonably cheap, and can help for the foreseeable future. Either that, or Hendry is chasing after Kearns to help lower the asking price for Dunn (which I doubt, considering that Hendry is a honest guy).

[MPrior]

Okay: Not that Soriano is a bad player, but the LAST thing the Cubs' offense needs is more home runs (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that home runs are bad - I love home runs, who doesn't? I'm just saying there are other things that we need to address first); we have more dingers than anyone in the league besides the Reds, who play in Great American. What we are in desperate need of is OBP guys - because we have very few of them. So why would we trade away one of our best OBP guys who also happens to be a very good contact hitter (and thus can do the little things that people like no. 2 hitters to do) and has a little pop in his bat for significantly less OBP, a good bit more slugging, and even worse defense? Lee and Ramirez will hit the homers. Let's just get the guys on base in front of them.

[Backtobanks]

What people are forgetting is that Hendry has already stated he won't make a trade unless it helps for 05 and BEYOND.

 

http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-kiley12.html

 

As it implies in this article, he is looking for somebody can help now and beyond. I don't think Delucci and Soriano fits into what Hendry wants to do. If you haven't notice but Hendry has added guys who have the ability to draw a walk (Gerut, Murton, etc) so Soriano is definately out. Delucci really doesn't factor into the Cubs plans after this yr, so I doubt Delucci/Soriano are EVEN on Hendry mind.

 

As somebody mention earlier, I believe Kearns is the bat the Cubs are going to acquire. They love him, he loves the Cubs. He's young, reasonably cheap, and can help for the foreseeable future. Either that, or Hendry is chasing after Kearns to help lower the asking price for Dunn (which I doubt, considering that Hendry is a honest guy).

 

Thank God Baker puts those guys on the bench so they don't clog up the bases with walks.

[CubfaninCA]

Okay: Not that Soriano is a bad player, but the LAST thing the Cubs' offense needs is more home runs (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that home runs are bad - I love home runs, who doesn't? I'm just saying there are other things that we need to address first); we have more dingers than anyone in the league besides the Reds, who play in Great American. What we are in desperate need of is OBP guys - because we have very few of them. So why would we trade away one of our best OBP guys who also happens to be a very good contact hitter (and thus can do the little things that people like no. 2 hitters to do) and has a little pop in his bat for significantly less OBP, a good bit more slugging, and even worse defense? Lee and Ramirez will hit the homers. Let's just get the guys on base in front of them.

 

The Cubs offense needs a 6th hitter, with a good slugging %, and if Nomar comes back then they have a #2 hitter.

 

One last thing about Walker there's probably a good reason why he's paid $2.5 million. Maybe Bill James would give him $5 million, but I don't see anyone hiring him to be gm.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Okay: Not that Soriano is a bad player, but the LAST thing the Cubs' offense needs is more home runs (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that home runs are bad - I love home runs, who doesn't? I'm just saying there are other things that we need to address first); we have more dingers than anyone in the league besides the Reds, who play in Great American. What we are in desperate need of is OBP guys - because we have very few of them. So why would we trade away one of our best OBP guys who also happens to be a very good contact hitter (and thus can do the little things that people like no. 2 hitters to do) and has a little pop in his bat for significantly less OBP, a good bit more slugging, and even worse defense? Lee and Ramirez will hit the homers. Let's just get the guys on base in front of them.

 

The Cubs offense needs a 6th hitter, with a good slugging %, and if Nomar comes back then they have a #2 hitter.

 

One last thing about Walker there's probably a good reason why he's paid $2.5 million. Maybe Bill James would give him $5 million, but I don't see anyone hiring him to be gm.

 

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

[CubfaninCA]

Okay: Not that Soriano is a bad player, but the LAST thing the Cubs' offense needs is more home runs (DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying that home runs are bad - I love home runs, who doesn't? I'm just saying there are other things that we need to address first); we have more dingers than anyone in the league besides the Reds, who play in Great American. What we are in desperate need of is OBP guys - because we have very few of them. So why would we trade away one of our best OBP guys who also happens to be a very good contact hitter (and thus can do the little things that people like no. 2 hitters to do) and has a little pop in his bat for significantly less OBP, a good bit more slugging, and even worse defense? Lee and Ramirez will hit the homers. Let's just get the guys on base in front of them.

 

The Cubs offense needs a 6th hitter, with a good slugging %, and if Nomar comes back then they have a #2 hitter.

 

One last thing about Walker there's probably a good reason why he's paid $2.5 million. Maybe Bill James would give him $5 million, but I don't see anyone hiring him to be gm.

 

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

[Guest]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

[dime]

so...was it bill james or theo epstein who thought edgar renteria was worth $40 million? :P

[nilodnayr]

http://www.sportingnews.com/exclusives/20050725/634761.html

 

Pretty fresh article talking about deal-making and needs. Here's what he says about our team:

 

"Cubs. The returns of shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and reliever Scott Williamson will help. Williamson, coming off elbow ligament transplant surgery, is in terrific shape, having lost about 25 pounds. G.M. Jim Hendry still wants to acquire more bullpen help and an outfield bat, preferably a righthanded one."

 

I had always believed that Hendry would be more partial to acquiring a left-handed bat (Dunn, Huff, Floyd, etc...), but since guys like Kearns and Preston Wilson have been in the news lately, I guess Hendry is looking at any bat that he feels is an improvement over Hollandsworth in LF.

 

Who will that bat be, if anybody?

 

Hoops

 

Craig Wilson.

 

Can't he not come off the DL until after the deadline? Hes untradeable until the offseason (assuming he isnt put on waivers and clears them).

[CubfaninCA]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

 

You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power.

[CubfaninCA]

Here's a few quantative example and hopefully my understanding of RC = OBP * TB is correct...

 

If runners are on second and third, and Walker walks, but Soriano gets a single and drives in both players, doesn't James rate this as equal run creation?? However, Soriano creates 2 runs, whereas Walker leaves it to someone else and he may just get stranded.

[nilodnayr]

They can't because he's too busy helping Theo Epstein on the World Champion Red Sox.

 

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all.

You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh?

 

Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...)

 

You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power.

 

A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run).

[nilodnayr]

Here's a few quantative example and hopefully my understanding of RC = OBP * TB is correct...

 

If runners are on second and third, and Walker walks, but Soriano gets a single and drives in both players, doesn't James rate this as equal run creation?? However, Soriano creates 2 runs, whereas Walker leaves it to someone else and he may just get stranded.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/furtado/articles/NewRC.html