Do you still want Dunn?

[nick23]

That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued.

RBIs are an independent stat. It's not Dunn's fault that his RBI total is low. It probably has more to do with the guys hitting in from of him. I think if you were to stick Dunn between Lee and Aram, he'd see better pitches to hit, and wouldn't be pitched around quite as much. Therefore, his Ks would go down, his average would go up, and his RBI total would go up. His walks would obviously go down, but he'd be hitting for a higher average so his OBP would stay about the same.

If RBI's are an independent stat then so are runs scored. I think his low RBI totals are due more to the fact of his poor average than the people hitting in front of him.

[E.J.]

Bat him 2nd so we have someone on base 40% of the time in front of D Lee. Move Walker down to the 6th hole batting behind Aram.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bat him 2nd so we have someone on base 40% of the time in front of D Lee. Move Walker down to the 6th hole batting behind Aram.

 

Walker

Hairston

Lee

Dunn

Ramirez

Burnitz

Barrett

Cedeno

 

or

 

Walker

Barrett

Lee

Dunn

Ramirez

Burntiz

Patterson

Cedeno

[nick23]

He's 25. He has a career OPS of .900. What else do you want? He is one of the elite offensive performers in the game. BA is not important.

 

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk.

 

I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat.

 

Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters.

 

Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all.

I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time.

 

I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error.

 

As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit.

 

And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy.

In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP.

 

That's not true. The guy may not drive in more runs himself, but when you compare [same lineup with .320/.360 guy] v. [same lineup with .230/.400 guy] the lineup with the .400 OBP guy is going to score more runs. Also worth pointing out, many of the people who fall closer to the .300/.360 category have very little power, while you'll find that .230/.400 guys are more TTT players and have significantly more power, which adds to the advantage they have over the .300/.360 guy.

That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued.

 

None of the players you mentioned are within 20 points of hitting .300, and Lee isn't even close to the .360 OBP benchmark laid out. RBI's aren't telling the whole story when it comes to Dunn. He walks often w/ RISP likely because he hits 6th in the Reds lineup. Were he in an appropriate place in the order, he would likely get more pitches to hit, and get a few more hits than walks in those situations. Regardless, RBI and even HR are not a very good way to measure run production. As it stands, Dunn is one of the most productive offensive players in the league. There may be debate on how much we should give up for him, but it really should be clear cut that he is about as good an acquisition any team could hope to make.

Ok, you want someone almost dead on .300/.360? Aramis Ramirez. He's batting .309/.365. I guess he's not a power hitter either. By the way Todd Hollandsworth is his protection in the lineup right now. So don't give me this stuff about they pitch around Dunn that's why he has low RBI's. I just don't think he's what this team needs. He's definitely an upgrade in left but he's not worth what the Reds are asking.

[hawkeyecub]

Yes RBI's are an independent stat and usually depend on the guys in front of you in the lineup.

But you also can't argue that a guy who strikes out almost 200 times a year and hits only .240 is going to struggle to get a lot of RBI that a player like Dunn gets. If you figure that Dunn will strike out 200 times and walk 100 times, that means in nearly half of his plate appearances he isn't putting the ball in play. The only way for him to get an RBI in that situation is by walking with the bases loaded.

 

I'm not saying Dunn isn't a very good offensive player or that I wouldn't like him on the Cubs. He's just simply going to struggle to get a lot of RBI that don't come the way of a home run compared to other players.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ok, you want someone almost dead on .300/.360? Aramis Ramirez. He's batting .309/.365. I guess he's not a power hitter either. By the way Todd Hollandsworth is his protection in the lineup right now. So don't give me this stuff about they pitch around Dunn that's why he has low RBI's. I just don't think he's what this team needs. He's definitely an upgrade in left but he's not worth what the Reds are asking.

 

I wasn't saying that there wasn't anyone who fit that profile, but that typically a .300/.360 guy is closer to a Juan Pierre than an Adam Dunn in terms of power. If he's not worth 2 good prospects and Patterson, who is? Here's the list of MLB players with more Runs Created/Game than Dunn:

 

Lee, Pujols, Sheffield, Hafner, Nick Johnson(hurt, 70 fewer PA's), Roberts, Giles, A-Rod, Abreu, Ensberg, Ortiz, Delgado, Manny, Edmonds, Kent, Utley, Cabrera, Sexson, Burrell, and Drew(hurt, 70 fewer PA's). Dunn's one of the premier offensive players in the game, is only 25, and has been consistent in his production(can't be said for Ensberg, Utley, Burrell, Roberts, even Drew). We can't get wrapped up in team dependent statistics like RBI's, or even sac flies. Sure he K's a lot, but he still outproduces almost everyone in the National League! If the Reds are going to be insane enough to consider trading him, we shouldn't return the favor by refusing to part with some of our pitching + Patterson.

[Guest]

That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued.

RBIs are an independent stat. It's not Dunn's fault that his RBI total is low. It probably has more to do with the guys hitting in from of him. I think if you were to stick Dunn between Lee and Aram, he'd see better pitches to hit, and wouldn't be pitched around quite as much. Therefore, his Ks would go down, his average would go up, and his RBI total would go up. His walks would obviously go down, but he'd be hitting for a higher average so his OBP would stay about the same.

If RBI's are an independent stat then so are runs scored. I think his low RBI totals are due more to the fact of his poor average than the people hitting in front of him.

A little knowledge of game theory comes in handy in these types of discussions...

 

There are two main factors that determine how many runs a team will score; how often its players reach base and how good they are at advancing runners once they reach base. That truth really just follows from the way the game is played; to score a run a player must first reach base somehow, then he (or his teammates) must advance him around the bases until he reaches home. Knowing this simple truth, we need to analyze what the commonly used statistics tell us about how good players are at each of these components.

 

As its name implies, OBP is the defacto measurement of how often a player reaches base. In the olden days batting average was the standard measurement here, but it's been abandoned for the most part because it paints an incomplete pitcture of how often a player reaches base. (Ignoring such important things as walks and lesser events such as HBP.) Clearly OBP is a far superior measurement of this component.

 

What about advancing runners? Well, OBP doesn't tell you much about this. OBP treats a single the same as a walk, and hits have far more value in advancing runners than walks do. Does this mean BA should be used here? No, because it has the same problem -- 2B, 3B, and HR have far more value from a runner-advancement perspective than a single. What to use then? SLG is a good place to start if you want to go with a simple measurement. The weightings aren't perfect, but it does a much better job of showing the relative importance of a HR vs. a single. A true LW measurement would be an ideal measurement, but most fans develop an acute case of narcolepsy when the discussion turns to stat-geek topics such as regression.

 

In short, the reason OPS is such a good "quick-'n'-dirty" estimate of overall production is because it combines two good measurements of the way runs are really scored; getting on base and moving runners along. Specifically regarding Dunn, his low BA isn't much of a concern because his ability to move runners along is still quite high thanks to his power.

[CubinNY]

 

I'm not saying Dunn isn't a very good offensive player or that I wouldn't like him on the Cubs. He's just simply going to struggle to get a lot of RBI that don't come the way of a home run compared to other players.

 

Provide an example of a player who does get a lot of RBI that is not a HR hitter. In other words, you could say that about anyone. Nevermind the fact that he is on pace to have a second consecutive 100 RBI season.

[nick23]

I remember last year and even at the begining of this year the big complaint was that all of our runs came via the HR. Well, if last year's team could be condensed into one player it would be Adam Dunn. The only runs this guy knocks in come via the HR. Sure his OBP won't hurt the team. But I want my cleanup hitter driving in runs not just simply getting on base. Whoever said bat him second was right IMO. But we all know Dusty will bat him 4th. And that's best case scenario. He'll probably bat him 6th behind Ramirez.

[AAApittsburgh]

I remember last year and even at the begining of this year the big complaint was that all of our runs came via the HR. Well, if last year's team could be condensed into one player it would be Adam Dunn. The only runs this guy knocks in come via the HR. Sure his OBP won't hurt the team. But I want my cleanup hitter driving in runs not just simply getting on base. Whoever said bat him second was right IMO. But we all know Dusty will bat him 4th. And that's best case scenario. He'll probably bat him 6th behind Ramirez.

I'm willing to bet that the same people who support getting Dunn, aren't the same people who were complaining all the runs came via the HR last year. The problem last year wasn't too many HRs. It was lack of walks and it's still a problem. Good pitching and the 3 run homer does work. It's good pitching and the solo homer that doesn't work.

[hawkeyecub]

 

I'm not saying Dunn isn't a very good offensive player or that I wouldn't like him on the Cubs. He's just simply going to struggle to get a lot of RBI that don't come the way of a home run compared to other players.

 

Provide an example of a player who does get a lot of RBI that is not a HR hitter. In other words, you could say that about anyone. Nevermind the fact that he is on pace to have a second consecutive 100 RBI season.

 

You're completely missing the point. I'm comparing him to other HR hitters and looking at the amount of AB's he puts the ball in play compared to other sluggers.

 

It's simple, if he walks 120 times and strikes out 190 times, that's 310 plate appearances where he isn't putting the ball in play thus almost eliminating the opportunity to drive in runs. Now he's looking at having only 350 PA's per year to drive in runs. Many of those will come with no one on base, just like they do for every hitter.

 

Yes he should get 100 RBI again, because he'll likely hit 45 HR again. Last year he ranked second lowest in RBI among 40+ HR hitters only one ahead of Bonds and it's very obvious why he can't drive in as many runs.

 

Some of you refuse to admit there are any weaknesses in Dunn's game. Again for the 10th time, I'm not saying that he's not a good offensive player or that he doesn't create more runs because of the amount of times he gets on base. But when you have that many plate appearances with no contact, you don't get the RBI's that other sluggers do.

[nick23]

I remember last year and even at the begining of this year the big complaint was that all of our runs came via the HR. Well, if last year's team could be condensed into one player it would be Adam Dunn. The only runs this guy knocks in come via the HR. Sure his OBP won't hurt the team. But I want my cleanup hitter driving in runs not just simply getting on base. Whoever said bat him second was right IMO. But we all know Dusty will bat him 4th. And that's best case scenario. He'll probably bat him 6th behind Ramirez.

I'm willing to bet that the same people who support getting Dunn, aren't the same people who were complaining all the runs came via the HR last year. The problem last year wasn't too many HRs. It was lack of walks and it's still a problem. Good pitching and the 3 run homer does work. It's good pitching and the solo homer that doesn't work.

Good point. Like I said, I think the guy's a good player and he's definitely an upgrade. I just feel for what we need and how he'll be used, it's not a great fit. I just don't see him really helping out the middle of the order.

[hawkeyecub]

Let me preface this by saying that I think Dunn would be a big upgrade on our offense and I would love to have him.

 

But today is the perfect example of why hitters like Dunn and Bellhorn can be extremely frustrating. He was batting with the bases loaded against Roberto Novoa with 1 out in the 7th. He got behind in the count 0-2, then took a beautiful fastball on the inside corner, but it was called a ball. After another ball, he looked at another fastball right over the heart of the plate for strike 3.

 

That isn't the time to hack at anything close and help the pitcher, but it's also not the time to just look for a walk. The same thing happened quite a bit with Bellhorn. I love the fact that they don't chase a pitch or swing at a pitch they know they can't hit and weakly ground into two.

But when you're supposed to be the best hitter on your team and one of the best in the league, you just can't look at two Novoa fastballs for strike 3 with the bases loaded, down by one.

[treebird]

A true LW measurement would be an ideal measurement, but most fans develop an acute case of narcolepsy when the discussion turns to stat-geek topics such as regression.

 

I know where to find the linear weights values for singles and doubles and all, but do you know of any websites that keep updated/any form of LW stats in season?

[Guest]

A true LW measurement would be an ideal measurement, but most fans develop an acute case of narcolepsy when the discussion turns to stat-geek topics such as regression.

 

I know where to find the linear weights values for singles and doubles and all, but do you know of any websites that keep updated/any form of LW stats in season?

Nope, sorry. I made a spreadsheet that keeps a running tab for each player on the Cubs, but if I want to compute the LW for a possible acquisition I resort to doing it manually. (Well, not that manually... I also have a spreadsheet that I can just plug individual hitting stats into and it will pump out the run estimate for me.)

 

In all seriousness, though, any site that keeps any sort of run estimator stats will give you a good enough idea of a player's overall production. (Be it RC on ESPN or something like VORP at BP.)

[UK1679666180]

In all seriousness, though, any site that keeps any sort of run estimator stats will give you a good enough idea of a player's overall production. (Be it RC on ESPN or something like VORP at BP.)

 

Exactly, the difference between RC and LW/XR is minimal enough to where it sin't worth the time to calculate it using a slightly more accurate weighted system like LW or XR.