The 2026 Cubs Were Always a Two- (or Three-)Man Show at the Plate

[Randy Holt]

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

 

The Chicago Cubs were bounced from Major League Baseball's 2026 postseason with extreme prejudice. They scored one run in two games against the San Diego Padres, and headed home with far more questions than answers. 

While most of those questions were about the men on the mound, that the offense scored just one run across 18 innings raised a significant issue in its own right—one the team will need to address moving forward. Run production had already waned toward the end of September, for the team that scored more runs than anyone else in the league for the entirety of 2026. 

The Cubs' 850 runs were 18 more than the second-place Milwaukee Brewers, a rare standings win for the Cubs over their division rivals. They were sixth in the league in batting average (.251), second in on-base percentage (.339), and paced the league in isolated power (.177) and wRC+ (114). It was an offense that, by all accounts, should have been quite a bit better across even as small a sample as the Wild Card round. 

Sadly, though, there's a case that what happened is exactly what fans should have expected, under the circumstances. Pete Crow-Armstrong (the presumptive runaway winner for National League MVP) and second-half star Alex Bregman went a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and a walk. Those two, occasionally along with Seiya Suzuki, were the engine of the team's offensive structure. As went those two (or three), so went the offense as a whole. 

It's not that the Cubs were entirely reliant on two bats. A team doesn't lead the league in runs scored on the strength of a pair of hitters. However, Crow-Armstrong and Bregman did provide the only sustained production we saw from the team's lineup. 

This is where the Cubs stood production-wise from a month-to-month standpoint in 2026: 

• March/April: 169 R (3rd), .261 AVG (4th), .353 OBP (1st), .166 ISO (7th), 119 wRC+ (3rd)
• May: 115 R (19th), .217 AVG (28th), .315 OBP (14th), .128 ISO (26th), 87 wRC+ (21st)
• June: 141 R (7th), .250 AVG (17th), .343 OBP (5th), .194 ISO (5th), 120 wRC+ (4th)
• July: 139 R (3rd), .266 AVG (4th), .342 OBP (3rd), .176 ISO (9th), 118 wRC+ (3rd)
• August: 178 R (1st), .271 AVG (1st), .349 OBP (2nd), .243 ISO (1st), 137 wRC+ (1st)
• September: 108 R (15th), .242 AVG (18th), .329 OBP (8th), .153 ISO (19th), 103 wRC+ (14th)

There were only two months wherein the offense average-ish or worse. In May, for instance, each of Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, and Nico Hoerner fell below 80 in wRC+. Kelly's 78 was highest; Swanson's 30 was a true black hole in the batting order. In September, Kelly took his turn being helpless (48 wRC+) as, once again, four starters fell well below the average threshold. Ian Happ's 85 paced that quartet. Ironically, Michael Busch's best work came when the team was otherwise struggling, but overall, he did more to weigh down the offense than to buoy it.

From April through September, here's where each of the team's starters fell by wRC+ (organized alphabetically): 

• Bregman: 104, 94, 92, 127, 177, 195
• Busch: 68, 167, 118, 96, 104, 117
• Crow-Armstrong: 87, 115, 235, 171, 185, 145
• Happ: 126, 127, 90, 89, 108, 85
• Hoerner: 130, 59, 62, 93, 105, 66
• Kelly: 143, 78, 129, 68, 133, 48
• Suzuki: 177, 51, 158, 160, 163, 107
• Swanson: 118, 30, 127, 93, 125, 52

Crow-Armstrong and Bregman started the season slowly. Once they found their footing, though, they were locked in for the remainder of the year; Crow-Armstrong paced the league in fWAR by a wide margin (10.6), while Bregman went on to finish seventh (5.5). The remainder of the group, however, was largely unable to provide steadiness in terms of their production. 

Down the stretch, the only reliable help those two got came from Suzuki. With the exception of a brutal May and a closer-to-average September, he had another season of sustained production. However, while Crow-Armstrong and Bregman were each able to produce across a variety of situations, Suzuki ran into some trouble in the form of a ballooning strikeout rate (touching 26% even in strong months) and underperformance with runners in scoring position (.213 batting average for the season). He's as close a third member of the team's run production squad as the Cubs had this year, but there are always those small stretches that stop him from completely emerging as a slugging superstar. 

Only four regulars provided regular value at the plate, and much of Busch's was wrapped up in a career-best 13% walk rate considering; his ISO figure dropped more than 100 points from 2025. Bregman's percentile distribution looks as it always has. Crow-Armstrong's in illustrative of an MVP-caliber season. Suzuki has his approach and some other figures working his way. The rest are a smattering of limited skill sets that, as indicated by their run value, are unable to sustain production over a long stretch. Much of the positive work Swanson, Happ and Hoerner did came in April and May, too. By the end of the year, none of those three brought much to the table.

That's where the 2026 Cubs ran into trouble. The floor for this group is high. But the ceiling is not especially impressive. The group, as a whole, is too streaky to have been expected to find success in the absence of production from Crow-Armstrong and Bregman. Each popped for a two-week or a month-long stretch. Big picture, though, this was always a two-man show, starring two top 10 fWAR players, with Suzuki occasionally popping in. As we saw in the final stretch of the year, that was ever going to be enough for the Cubs to compensate for their woeful assembly of the pitching staff.

 

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[camiata2]

I can understand being frustrated with Seiya's performance with runners in scoring position this year (I know I was), but to come to the conclusion that he was an inconsistent and only occasional contributor on offense this year is just horrendous analysis. Be better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, camiata2 said:

I can understand being frustrated with Seiya's performance with runners in scoring position this year (I know I was), but to come to the conclusion that he was an inconsistent and only occasional contributor on offense this year is just horrendous analysis. Be better.

Welcome to the site! Maybe you misunderstood Randy? He said this about Seiya:

"Down the stretch, the only reliable help those two got came from Suzuki. With the exception of a brutal May and a closer-to-average September, he had another season of sustained production."

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Randy Holt said:

Image courtesy of Matt Marton-Imagn Images

 

The Chicago Cubs were bounced from Major League Baseball's 2026 postseason with extreme prejudice. They scored one run in two games against the San Diego Padres, and headed home with far more questions than answers. 

While most of those questions were about the men on the mound, that the offense scored just one run across 18 innings raised a significant issue in its own right—one the team will need to address moving forward. Run production had already waned toward the end of September, for the team that scored more runs than anyone else in the league for the entirety of 2026. 

The Cubs' 850 runs were 18 more than the second-place Milwaukee Brewers, a rare standings win for the Cubs over their division rivals. They were sixth in the league in batting average (.251), second in on-base percentage (.339), and paced the league in isolated power (.177) and wRC+ (114). It was an offense that, by all accounts, should have been quite a bit better across even as small a sample as the Wild Card round. 

Sadly, though, there's a case that what happened is exactly what fans should have expected, under the circumstances. Pete Crow-Armstrong (the presumptive runaway winner for National League MVP) and second-half star Alex Bregman went a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and a walk. Those two, occasionally along with Seiya Suzuki, were the engine of the team's offensive structure. As went those two (or three), so went the offense as a whole. 

It's not that the Cubs were entirely reliant on two bats. A team doesn't lead the league in runs scored on the strength of a pair of hitters. However, Crow-Armstrong and Bregman did provide the only sustained production we saw from the team's lineup. 

This is where the Cubs stood production-wise from a month-to-month standpoint in 2026: 

• March/April: 169 R (3rd), .261 AVG (4th), .353 OBP (1st), .166 ISO (7th), 119 wRC+ (3rd)
• May: 115 R (19th), .217 AVG (28th), .315 OBP (14th), .128 ISO (26th), 87 wRC+ (21st)
• June: 141 R (7th), .250 AVG (17th), .343 OBP (5th), .194 ISO (5th), 120 wRC+ (4th)
• July: 139 R (3rd), .266 AVG (4th), .342 OBP (3rd), .176 ISO (9th), 118 wRC+ (3rd)
• August: 178 R (1st), .271 AVG (1st), .349 OBP (2nd), .243 ISO (1st), 137 wRC+ (1st)
• September: 108 R (15th), .242 AVG (18th), .329 OBP (8th), .153 ISO (19th), 103 wRC+ (14th)

There were only two months wherein the offense average-ish or worse. In May, for instance, each of Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, and Nico Hoerner fell below 80 in wRC+. Kelly's 78 was highest; Swanson's 30 was a true black hole in the batting order. In September, Kelly took his turn being helpless (48 wRC+) as, once again, four starters fell well below the average threshold. Ian Happ's 85 paced that quartet. Ironically, Michael Busch's best work came when the team was otherwise struggling, but overall, he did more to weigh down the offense than to buoy it.

From April through September, here's where each of the team's starters fell by wRC+ (organized alphabetically): 

• Bregman: 104, 94, 92, 127, 177, 195
• Busch: 68, 167, 118, 96, 104, 117
• Crow-Armstrong: 87, 115, 235, 171, 185, 145
• Happ: 126, 127, 90, 89, 108, 85
• Hoerner: 130, 59, 62, 93, 105, 66
• Kelly: 143, 78, 129, 68, 133, 48
• Suzuki: 177, 51, 158, 160, 163, 107
• Swanson: 118, 30, 127, 93, 125, 52

Crow-Armstrong and Bregman started the season slowly. Once they found their footing, though, they were locked in for the remainder of the year; Crow-Armstrong paced the league in fWAR by a wide margin (10.6), while Bregman went on to finish seventh (5.5). The remainder of the group, however, was largely unable to provide steadiness in terms of their production. 

Down the stretch, the only reliable help those two got came from Suzuki. With the exception of a brutal May and a closer-to-average September, he had another season of sustained production. However, while Crow-Armstrong and Bregman were each able to produce across a variety of situations, Suzuki ran into some trouble in the form of a ballooning strikeout rate (touching 26% even in strong months) and underperformance with runners in scoring position (.213 batting average for the season). He's as close a third member of the team's run production squad as the Cubs had this year, but there are always those small stretches that stop him from completely emerging as a slugging superstar. 

Only four regulars provided regular value at the plate, and much of Busch's was wrapped up in a career-best 13% walk rate considering; his ISO figure dropped more than 100 points from 2025. Bregman's percentile distribution looks as it always has. Crow-Armstrong's in illustrative of an MVP-caliber season. Suzuki has his approach and some other figures working his way. The rest are a smattering of limited skill sets that, as indicated by their run value, are unable to sustain production over a long stretch. Much of the positive work Swanson, Happ and Hoerner did came in April and May, too. By the end of the year, none of those three brought much to the table.

That's where the 2026 Cubs ran into trouble. The floor for this group is high. But the ceiling is not especially impressive. The group, as a whole, is too streaky to have been expected to find success in the absence of production from Crow-Armstrong and Bregman. Each popped for a two-week or a month-long stretch. Big picture, though, this was always a two-man show, starring two top 10 fWAR players, with Suzuki occasionally popping in. As we saw in the final stretch of the year, that was ever going to be enough for the Cubs to compensate for their woeful assembly of the pitching staff.

 

 

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Couldn’t you do this with evey team? All players have peaks and valleys. The superstars’ valleys aren’t as low or last as long. But how many teams have multiple superstars? Kind of a needless analysis IMO. Just another post that wouldn’t have been posted had the Cubs still been playing. And, maybe, had the two stars of the team actually played well they may have still been playing. Not blaming them, just pointing out that research to try to explain why a team failed after it failed is easy. And in this particular analysis, I do think after every team loses someone can post the same thing about that teams line up.

[Paul7]

1 hour ago, camiata2 said:

I can understand being frustrated with Seiya's performance with runners in scoring position this year (I know I was), but to come to the conclusion that he was an inconsistent and only occasional contributor on offense this year is just horrendous analysis. Be better.

Swanson is the real bad one hitting with RISP, under .200 historically.  He didn't choke in the playoffs with RISP, it was just Swanson being Swanson.  There's a reason Atlanta let him go.  

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Paul7 said:

Swanson is the real bad one hitting with RISP, under .200 historically.  He didn't choke in the playoffs with RISP, it was just Swanson being Swanson.  There's a reason Atlanta let him go.  

Dansby’s career batting average is .247, all AB. His BA over his career with risp is .248. He is fine in that situation in his career. 

[Cub Fan in Dallas]

It's going to be a tough off season to upgrade offensively. Seiya or Randy Arozzarena are the best available corner outfielders and Randy is worse in the field than Seiya, while being equally inconsistant. It'd be hard to hand both corner jobs to rookies or near-rookies. Shaw seemed to have an inside track on one of them. But it's hard to see him approaching Seiya's productivity with the bat. Maybe Happ's. But he's a downgrade defensively for Ian and maybe even Seiya. Alcantara is an unknown commodity (mostly) and didn't earn much good will this year. So I think they'll have to bring back Seiya (maybe a front loaded three-year deal) with an eye to moving him to DH as better options emerge internally or externally.

[Bill Fogg]

The biggest question for the Cubs offseason is : do they resign Suzuki ? It should be pretty clear that Happ isn't coming back, and I have mixed feelings about Suzuki. I don't have statistics to provide but Suzuki's offensive production has been fairly consistent over his Cub tenure but going into this season I thought that he underperformed in clutch situations. He didn't do anything this year to change my opinion. At his age, it is unlikely that we will see any improvement and there is a strong probability that another team will overpay what he is worth because frankly there aren't many good outfield options available this off-season. Alcantara does not look ready, and we are probably better off with another left- handed hitting outfielder. I know that hindsight is always correct, but I wish we still had Bellinger manning one of the outfield spots [ and not paying him $5 million to play for the Yankees ] this upcoming season.    

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Bill Fogg said:

The biggest question for the Cubs offseason is : do they resign Suzuki ? It should be pretty clear that Happ isn't coming back, and I have mixed feelings about Suzuki. I don't have statistics to provide but Suzuki's offensive production has been fairly consistent over his Cub tenure but going into this season I thought that he underperformed in clutch situations. He didn't do anything this year to change my opinion. At his age, it is unlikely that we will see any improvement and there is a strong probability that another team will overpay what he is worth because frankly there aren't many good outfield options available this off-season. Alcantara does not look ready, and we are probably better off with another left- handed hitting outfielder. I know that hindsight is always correct, but I wish we still had Bellinger manning one of the outfield spots [ and not paying him $5 million to play for the Yankees ] this upcoming season.    

I think it is far more likely Happ comes back than it is Seiya. Happ might accept a QO or may take a discounted deal to stay here. Suzuki isn’t taking the QO and might cost too much to keep. 

[Thusly Boned]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think it is far more likely Happ comes back than it is Seiya. Happ might accept a QO or may take a discounted deal to stay here. Suzuki isn’t taking the QO and might cost too much to keep. 

Yeah, you'd much rather keep Suzuki than Happ (I love Seiya), but as you say Suzuki isn't going to accept the QO. And if he does in fact command a nine-figure contract over 5+ years, I don't think that is a wise move to make.

I'm not convinced Happ will take the QO given the state of thew market, but he's definitely more likely.  But as much as I have appreciated him, I hope he doesn't. I'd be pretty irritated Jed offered him any kind of multi-year deal, tbh. His extreme streakiness is frustrating, and with another similarly hot/cold everyday player in the lineup, I think he should be let go.

But otoh, as bad as the offseason market is, I think replacing either or both of them in any meaningful way would end up being trade and/or Alcantara.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Thusly Boned said:

Yeah, you'd much rather keep Suzuki than Happ (I love Seiya), but as you say Suzuki isn't going to accept the QO. And if he does in fact command a nine-figure contract over 5+ years, I don't think that is a wise move to make.

I'm not convinced Happ will take the QO given the state of thew market, but he's definitely more likely.  But as much as I have appreciated him, I hope he doesn't. I'd be pretty irritated Jed offered him any kind of multi-year deal, tbh. His extreme streakiness is frustrating, and with another similarly hot/cold everyday player in the lineup, I think he should be let go.

But otoh, as bad as the offseason market is, I think replacing either or both of them in any meaningful way would end up being trade and/or Alcantara.

Happ is streaky. But as a left hand hitter he actually has a good year. I wouldn’t be surprised, nor disappointed, if Happ came back. But they have to sit him against a left handed pitcher.

[Cub Fan in Dallas]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think it is far more likely Happ comes back than it is Seiya. Happ might accept a QO or may take a discounted deal to stay here. Suzuki isn’t taking the QO and might cost too much to keep. 

I think Happ is not a guy you resign in the environment the Cubs are in. Left field defense is his calling card. But Left Field defense is sort of overrated compared to other positions. You'd rather have an offensive guy in that position IMO. Happ is probably the most controversial Cub because he can do several things very well, and several others where he leaves you shaking your head. He's been worth about 20 Mil per year up until this year. Now his age, his deficiencies make him expendable. Meanwhile Seiya has value in RF short-term and DH longer term. If you're going to go after one of our corner outfielders, in a market that will put them in demand, I'd go after Seiya. 

[Bill Fogg]

Any close inspection of Happ's offensive performance this year reveals a player in decline. In June & July I argued that for a player with as many homers he had hit and the fact that he batted either 3rd, 4th, or 5th in a very good offensive lineup, let's just say his RBI numbers were abysmal. To me it appeared that he could no longer catch up to a good fastball, and I speculated that he needed a vision test. I actually thought that his Gold Glove Awards were overrated and that his defense had started to decline also. He had been a very solid player for a significant amount of time, but it is difficult to imagine a world where he returns to his previous levels of productivity. I understand that as a switch hitter [ especially left- handed ] he has some value but it is time to move on. Thank you Ian, and good luck.     

[Cub Fan in Dallas]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Dansby’s career batting average is .247, all AB. His BA over his career with risp is .248. He is fine in that situation in his career. 

But you can't think it's getting better, right? It's on the downturn. And it's OK to observe that fact and consider the implications. What it means to line-up construction, etc. We have a third of team that is aging, a third that is leaving its prime and a third that are young. Meanwhile, we have a free agent class, position-wise, that is underwhelming. It's OK to love Dansby and still say that his contributions from here on out will be mostly defensive, though, once on base, he still has a ton of upside. He just doesn't get on base enough. For better or worse, Dansby will be the SS on this team for three more years. I don't regret signing him. But I also don't regret considering him a bit a a liability now. That's the nature of long-term contracts, after all. He can contribute. But it will be less and les every year until 2029.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Bill Fogg said:

Any close inspection of Happ's offensive performance this year reveals a player in decline. In June & July I argued that for a player with as many homers he had hit and the fact that he batted either 3rd, 4th, or 5th in a very good offensive lineup, let's just say his RBI numbers were abysmal. To me it appeared that he could no longer catch up to a good fastball, and I speculated that he needed a vision test. I actually thought that his Gold Glove Awards were overrated and that his defense had started to decline also. He had been a very solid player for a significant amount of time, but it is difficult to imagine a world where he returns to his previous levels of productivity. I understand that as a switch hitter [ especially left- handed ] he has some value but it is time to move on. Thank you Ian, and good luck.     

Using a guys rbi total is not a good way to argue he is in decline. His OPS as a left handed batter was over .800. His issue was batting right handed, period. He will most likely be given a QO by the Cubs. If he takes it he will still be here. If he doesn’t I am fine with moving on. But, if he gives the Cubs a home team discount, I wouldn’t object to him for a couple more years. Please explain this close inspection of his offense that clearly tells us he is in decline. And it needs to be more than his rbi were down. If they have him they absolutely have to have someone against left handed pitching. But if he can produce OPS of 800+ in over 400 AB against right handed pitching he is still valuable. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Cub Fan in Dallas said:

But you can't think it's getting better, right? It's on the downturn. And it's OK to observe that fact and consider the implications. What it means to line-up construction, etc. We have a third of team that is aging, a third that is leaving its prime and a third that are young. Meanwhile, we have a free agent class, position-wise, that is underwhelming. It's OK to love Dansby and still say that his contributions from here on out will be mostly defensive, though, once on base, he still has a ton of upside. He just doesn't get on base enough. For better or worse, Dansby will be the SS on this team for three more years. I don't regret signing him. But I also don't regret considering him a bit a a liability now. That's the nature of long-term contracts, after all. He can contribute. But it will be less and les every year until 2029.

Swanson was a top 10 SS offensively, by WAR.
And that wasn’t the point of my post anyway. Paul7 suggested Swanson has always been bad with risp. I pointed out that isn’t true. He is the same with risp as he is in any situation. Overall he is an average offensive player. But as a SS an average offensive player turns into a better than average offensive SS. 

[Cub Fan in Dallas]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Swanson was a top 10 SS offensively, by WAR.
And that wasn’t the point of my post anyway. Paul7 suggested Swanson has always been bad with risp. I pointed out that isn’t true. He is the same with risp as he is in any situation. Overall he is an average offensive player. But as a SS an average offensive player turns into a better than average offensive SS. 

I think Dansby's defense makes it more likely we can sign good to great pitching. I think his offense is not as important. I think you are right. RISP or simply how he performs regularly is probably equal. My focus is not on his offensive returns. They are on the value he can add over the final few years of his contract defensively. Again, I think he was a good signing. Given how the other SS who were available that year have panned out (Correa, Turner, Bogarts) I think he's been a big win.