Can Michael Busch Get His Power Back Despite Lost Bat Speed?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

The Cubs offense got off to a great start. They batted .261/.353/.427 as a team through the end of April, and scored nearly 5.5 runs per game. That was never going to prove sustainable, of course. The only two teams in Cubs history to score at that kind of pace all year were the 1929 and 1930 clubs, and in those years, offense was at such a frenzy that they could hardly help it. It didn't have to get this bad, though. Since May 1, the Cubs are batting .202/.306/.331. That's why they're currently mired in a stretch of seven straight losses, and 11 in their last 13 games. 

Technically, none of that is Michael Busch's fault. In fact, his was the last piece of slumbering lumber to limber up this spring. He had a .576 OPS through the end of April, but is batting .275/.440/.493 in May. That's a tremendous line, indicative of a player who has tapped into the value of a shrunken strike zone and become an unstoppable OBP guy. He's walked 19 times and struck out just 20 times in 91 plate appearances this month, entering Sunday's games. Even over the last four contests, in which he's gone 0-for-13, he's managed a pair of free passes.

However, something really is amiss with Busch, even now. He's missing some serious bat speed, and more than that, the timing and angle of his swing are a hair off. He's still making good swing decisions, which has kept him afloat in the OBP department, but the power that made him such a dynamo at the top of the lineup last season is absent. Can he get it back?

Well, firstly, of course he can. What we really want to know is how likely he is to actually do it, and to estimate that, we need to reacquaint ourselves with Busch's swing a bit. As you surely remember, last year, he found something that turned him from a good hitter with slightly above-average power to a borderline All-Star who hit 34 homers. He actually swung a tick less fast than he had in 2024, but he made more solid contact, thanks to a superb bat path that matched a well-organized plan of attack. He hit the ball hard, and he hit it hard in the air, often to the pull field. 

This season, that's just not happening. Busch's average exit velocity is down from 92.2 MPH in 2025 to 88.5. His average exit velocity on batted balls in the launch angle sweet spot (8°-32°) is down 2.4 MPH. His average launch angle on hard hit balls (95+ MPH) is down 5°. As good as Busch has been in May, it's still mostly because he's drawing walks and putting the ball in play. There's little sign of the power he had in 2025.

Here, in two videos, is why. The first is a home run Busch hit against Miles Mikolas last year, on the 4th of July. 

The second is a similar pitch from last month, on which he hit a well-struck but harmless flyout.

The telling moment in the two swings comes, perhaps unsurprisingly, just as he's making contact. To illustrate the difference, I've added an arc to each, going from his belt buckle to his left elbow by way of his armpit.

Now, to be clear, that arc is not quite how any hitter would or should think about the problem in Busch's swing this year. Nobody's mental cue for a successful power stroke is the angle of this imagined arc. But it does a fine job of highlighting what's happening. Busch's hands get farther from his body earlier in his swing this season. He's not tucking his back elbow in and powering his swing by forcing that top hand through a firm front side, the way he did last year. That's led to a slight flattening of his swing.

In the above examples, there's another key variable. Last year's homer came when Busch was ahead in the count, 1-0. He could sit on a fastball in and be ready to turn on it, with his front shoulder rolling backward and his torso twisting at top speed to power a short stroke with lots of long-ball potential. This season's pitch came with two strikes, so part of the reason Busch is letting his hands get away from his body is to cover the outer edge. He can't be as aggressive with that turn of his upper half, either, because he has to respect the possibility of a breaking ball a bit more. This is a real difference, but if it were an isolated case, it wouldn't be especially telling. 

It's not isolated, though. In fact, here's Busch getting all over a two-strike pitch that was a bit away from him (and harder) last year.

And here's him scorching a ball, but to the big part of the field, on a 1-0 count, just this Friday. 

Once again, we'll look at the moment of contact on each swing.

Even when he extends his arms, this year, Busch is going around his front side, more than through it. Some of the difference lies in him letting energy flow through his whole frame better, from his feet to the end of his bat, but some, again, lies in him flattening out slightly. He's a bit more focused on hitting the ball, this year, and a bit less focused on hitting the ball hard, in the air, to a productive part of the park. The specifict of the focus and conviction he had at the plate last year is just not quite as fine this spring, and the results have spoken to that.

If his bat speed remains down—and it's markedly down, about 1.5 MPH from last year—he might have to make a larger adjustment to his plan at the plate than he's made so far. He saw a surge in bat speed once the weather ceased to be frigid, but he's plunged back down on that front over the last fortnight. He'll need to organize his zone differently, if he's no longer able to rotate as quickly as he did last season and/or if the flattening of his bat path is permanent. Otherwise, some of his best contact will continue to be wasted, and Busch will settle back into being what he was in 2024. That was a solid hitter, but the Cubs' offense needs him to be more than that. They're relying on him much more now than they were in 2024, when they platooned him and when they had Cody Bellinger to help them punish righties. Busch doesn't have to hit 34 home runs again, but walking at a career-high rate isn't worth it if he trades in his power in the process. Right now, that's exactly what he's doing, because his swing isn't right.

 

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