Cubs Pitchers Can't Stop Giving Up Home Runs. Eventually, They'll Sink the Team

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Entering their series with the Milwaukee Brewers, the Chicago Cubs woke up once again atop the National League Central at 29-18. On the surface, they look exactly like what every contender hopes to be in May: an explosive offense, a division lead, and enough margin for error to survive imperfect stretches.

But underneath the record lives a far more uncomfortable reality. This pitching staff has just produced the most home run–vulnerable start any Cubs team has had this century. The historical numbers are no longer ignorable. And on Sunday, on the South Side, the problem exploded in plain sight again.

The Cubs let another chaotic Crosstown Classic slip away, stranded 13 runners, finished just 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position, and ultimately watched Edgar Quero end the game with a two-run walk-off homer in the 10th inning to seal a 9-8 White Sox victory.

The last time a White Sox hitter delivered an extra-inning walk-off homer against the Cubs was Carlos Lee’s grand slam off Courtney Duncan in the bottom of the 10th on June 8, 2001, at Comiskey Park II. This time, the image felt impossible to ignore: another lead gone, another decisive swing, another baseball disappearing beyond the wall.

Through their first 47 games, no Cubs team this century had allowed more home runs than this 2026 group.

Season	HR	Final Record
2026	64	???
2017	58	92-70
2006	58	66-96
2025	57	92-70
2022	57	74-88
2020	57	34-26
2021	56	71-91

And that is the truly unsettling part.

Chicago is not simply enduring a bad week. It is building the kind of statistical profile that usually belongs to unstable, inconsistent, or fundamentally vulnerable teams. And yet the Cubs keep winning, even while allowing 49.7% of their runs via the home run. That contradiction has become the defining tension of their season.

The Cubs Are Surviving Devastating Contact

The staff ERA does not look catastrophic. Even some surface-level bullpen metrics remain competitive. But the issue is not how many runs they allow.

The issue is how they allow them.

Because this staff keeps failing in exactly the situations where good pitching staffs are supposed to impose control. Chicago leads MLB in:

• 27 HR allowed after getting ahead 0-1.
• 18 HR allowed the second time through the order by starting pitchers.
• 10 HR allowed on changeups.
• 7 HR allowed on curveballs.

That combination tells a brutal story. An 0-1 count should belong to the pitcher. It should open the door to expanding the zone, generating defensive swings, and ending plate appearances quickly. Instead, Chicago is allowing more damage than any team in baseball after getting ahead in the count.

Perhaps the most revealing data point of the season is this:

Situation	HR Allowed	MLB Ranking
2nd PA in G, as SP	18	Worst in MLB
After 0-1	27	Worst in MLB
Innings 7-9	21	Bottom 5 in MLB

That explains why so many Cubs games feel fragile even when they hold leads.

Lineups are adjusting quickly to Chicago’s pitching staff. The damage begins once hitters recognize patterns, sequencing, and velocity shapes. And when the Cubs fail, the damage almost always arrives explosively. Not singles nor long rallies, but rather swings that instantly change games.

A look at the heat map reveals some of the staff’s worst command mistakes.

Forty-four percent of the home runs allowed have come against pitches left in the heart of the zone throughout the vertical plane. Only 19% of those command mistakes occurred while the hitter was behind in the count.

Jameson Taillon Has Become the Symbol of the Problem

No pitcher better reflects this vulnerability than Jameson Taillon.

Home Runs Allowed by Taillon in 2026

• Four-Seam Fastball: 5
• Cutter: 4
• Changeup: 4
• Sinker: 2
• Sweeper: 1

And that is exactly what makes this alarming. There is no single pitch collapsing under pressure. The entire arsenal is getting punished. Taillon has allowed 16 home runs in nine starts, which is 25% of the 64 home runs surrendered by the Cubs as a team.

His recent outing against the White Sox became a near-perfect representation of what is happening to Chicago’s entire pitching staff: five home runs allowed in just five innings, with damage arriving against multiple pitch types. Taillon joined a list no Cubs pitcher wants to join: pitchers who have allowed at least five home runs in a game.

Player	HR	Date	Age	Team		Opp	Result	IP	H	R	ER	BF
Warren Hacker	5	11/8/1954	29-263	CHC	@	CIN	L, 1-8	5	6	5	5	23
Steve Stone	5	9/7/1974	26-360	CHC		CIN	L, 5-8	2.1	5	5	5	13
Ismael Valdéz	5	11/6/2000	26-295	CHC	@	CHW	W, 6-5	5.2	10	5	5	29
Carlos Zambrano	5	12/8/2011	30-072	CHC	@	ATL	L, 4-10	4.1	8	8	8	22
Travis Wood	5	27/7/2012	25-172	CHC		STL	L, 6-9	5	7	8	8	24
Jason Hammel	5	1/7/2016	33-303	CHC	@	NYM	L, 2-10	4	9	10	10	23
Matt Swarmer	6	11/6/2022	28-259	CHC	@	NYY	L, 0-8	5	7	6	6	22
Jameson Taillon	5	16/5/2026	34-179	CHC	@	CHW	L, 3-8	5	8	8	8	24

This was not one isolated mistake in location. It was structural demolition.

The Cubs Are Losing Stability

And here comes the most important question of all: How does this team keep winning?

The answer is probably the offense. The Cubs have been explosive enough to absorb mistakes that normally sink contenders. But the home run problem injects constant volatility into the team’s identity. No lead feels entirely safe. No inning feels completely under control.

Because this staff lives dangerously close to long-ball damage. Chicago’s starters are tied for the most home runs allowed in MLB with 39. The bullpen ranks fifth-worst with 25.

October rarely forgives this kind of profile. Yes, it is still May. Less than 50 games have been played. It would be excessive to declare this a final verdict on the Cubs.

Explosive offensive teams can survive for months while hiding cracks on the mound. Chicago is doing exactly that right now. Their lineup produces enough damage to erase mistakes, rescue uncomfortable nights, and keep the club atop the division even while the pitching staff continues allowing dangerous contact.

But trends matter, especially the ones that repeat this consistently. The vulnerability runs through nearly the entire staff structure: starters getting punished the second time through the order, relievers allowing decisive late-game swings, and far too many favorable counts ending in catastrophic damage.

That is what makes this otherwise impressive start feel uncomfortable. Chicago still looks like a first-place team., but it is also beginning to look like a team playing on an extremely thin margin every single night.

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[mk49]

First of all, I like both Kelly and Amaya.  That said, have a feeling they give up quite a bit more HR's, when Kelly is catching.  Is there an easy way to find the HR/9 between Kelly and Amaya?  I could be wrong, but I just feel that way.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 hours ago, mk49 said:

First of all, I like both Kelly and Amaya.  That said, have a feeling they give up quite a bit more HR's, when Kelly is catching.  Is there an easy way to find the HR/9 between Kelly and Amaya?  I could be wrong, but I just feel that way.

Amaya has caught Taillon a lot, including the game where he just gave up 5 homers, so I don't think your theory is gonna hold up

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

6 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Amaya ha atrapado a Taillon muchas veces, incluido el partido en el que acaba de permitir 5 jonrones, así que no creo que tu teoría vaya a sostenerse

Greetings, everyone! Thanks for the comments. This is a really interesting topic. My take on this data is that the difference between Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly isn't really about generating wild swings. They're practically the same there:

26.4% for Amaya and 26.1% for Kelly.

In other words, there's no evidence here that one "gets more stuff" out of the pitch than the other.

The difference appears after contact.

With Kelly behind the plate, opposing hitters have done much more damage:
6.0% HR/BIP, .175 ISO, and .416 slugging.

With Amaya, all of that drops:
4.6% HR/BIP, .144 ISO, and .358 SLG.

And for me, that's the most important point. It's not about strikeouts. It's about the quality of contact allowed.

Now, to be fair, Amaya has probably had slightly better results. His BABIP (.246) is quite low, and the difference between his wOBA (.295) and xwOBA (.321) suggests that some of the result may be due to variance or context.

But even adjusting for that, the expected profile still slightly favors Amaya.

Kelly doesn't seem to be getting "bad luck." In fact, his xwOBA (.328) is worse than the actual result (.317), which suggests that the contact allowed with him behind the plate has genuinely been more dangerous.

That's why, if you ask me which of the two has helped the staff more this season defensively, my answer would be Amaya. Not because he generates more wild swings, but because so far he has better limited the actual damage when hitters do make contact.

[mk49]

Thank you for the stats.  I thought Kelly had given up more HR, because of Cabrera and Shota, I guess.  Yeah, if you include Jamo in the mix, I guess they're about the same, as far as HR's go.

Then, you showed those stats, and they are very interesting.