For Cubs, Run Production Will Hinge on Being Productive with Runners in Scoring Position—All Year

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

It's not just you. The Cubs' offense has been boom-or-bust this season. The offense is completely dependent on sequential hitting, which leads to some frustrating nights in front of the TV. The Cubs, who lack a reliable 40-homer hitter to anchor the lineup, rely on clusters of hits to score. They're more about depth than star power, even after making a splash by signing Alex Bregman this winter. That makes their performance with runners in scoring position even more important than it usually is.

Overall, the Cubs' hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP for short) has been solid: they're 12th in the league with a .256/.346/.393 slash line. In their 15 wins, they've excelled. In their nine losses, though, yeesh: .118/.205/.147. That's uglier than looking at the Cubs pitching IL list.

Of course, teams don't hit as well in losses as wins, but Chicago is the most volatile team in the league. Their batting average in losses plummets by .224, relative to their wins. By comparison, the league average is .088. The dynamic with OPS is the same, with a .661 difference (league average: .245). The Cubs aren't just streaky, they're the most boom-or-bust team in the entire league.

With a lineup bereft of a legitimate superstar bat, when several players struggle, the entire offense can crater. Corner outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, for example, are really fighting it with RISP. Currently, they are 7-for-42 with 21 strikeouts in these situations. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong are also scuffling to start the campaign, which cuts down the number of baserunners and makes the failures with RISP appear more stark. Any struggle in this lineup will make the offense sputter.

What does this mean going forward? Probably not as much as one would think. The Cubs recently won a game 2-1 against the Mets, wherein they went 0-for-9 with RISP. With their elite defense and complementary pitching staff, they don't lack alternative ways to win games. They should be fine over the course of the remaining games, but don't be shocked if their offense cools off again for a stretch. After all, it's a reflection of how the roster is constructed.

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