Baseball's Best Division: Cubs Staring Down Unfriendly Gauntlet In NL Central

[Paul Niemiec]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

With roughly a week and change left in April, and roughly 90% of the MLB regular season left to go, it’s time to check in on how the rest of the NL Central is doing. As of 4/21, here are the current standings: 

Reds: 15-8

Pirates: 13-9

Cubs: 13-9

Cardinals: 13-9

Brewers: 12-9

The Cubs were middling to begin the season, but with the bats propelling them to a series win in Philadelphia, and a sweep of the spiraling Mets over the weekend, they are right back in the thick of things. The only caveat now is the state of the rest of the division, which does not have a team below .500. Even the Cardinals, who were thought to be the bottom dweller this season, have gotten off to a nice start. The technically third-place Cubs are still favorites to win the division, but this season is going to be much more of a gauntlet than originally anticipated, even after Milwaukee and St. Louis made some major subtractions from their rosters over the offseason.

Here is a brief look at how the Cubs’ divisional rivals have fared so far.

Cubs' NL Central Opponent Check-In

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds, who made the playoffs last season, are leading the division despite a -3 run differential. Coming off a sweep of the formerly red-hot Minnesota Twins, the team still sits dead last in baseball in wRC+ and batting average. The pitching staff as a whole has a 4.54 xERA, which ranks 24th in the league. Their top two starting pitchers, Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, have not thrown a pitch yet, and both have ambiguous injury outlooks at this point. Both should be in the rotation at some point this season, but it is unclear when that will be. Still, the Reds are winning games, although they have not played a team with a current record over .500 besides the Pirates.

What’s working: The Reds have exactly two things going right for them on offense: Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart. De La Cruz has already reached 1.0 WAR on the young season, with an .859 OPS, six home runs, and five stolen bases. Stewart is doing even better, with a team-leading .978 OPS, seven home runs, and 19 RBI. The 22-year-old is looking like an early frontrunner for the NL ROY award up to this point in the season. After a few seasons with a revolving door at first base, the Reds look like they have another star at the position, their first since Joey Votto retired. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was traded to Baltimore last week, leaving Stewart with little to no competition for playing time, especially with new/old friend Eugenio Suarez taking over the primary DH role. De La Cruz is one of the most exciting young players in the game, but he needed a dependable bat in the lineup to take some weight off his shoulders, and now it looks like he has that.

On the pitching side, they’ve gotten quality work out of former first-round pick Rhett Lowder as well as Chase Burns. In the bullpen, Brock Burke, Conor Phillips, Graham Ashcraft and Sam Moll all have ERAs under 3.00, with Tony Santillan yet to give up a run in his 10 innings pitched. Their number 10 organizational prospect Jose Franco has made his debut in the bullpen, and No. 7 prospect Chase Petty is waiting in the wings. If this group can hold things together on the mound until Lodolo and Greene return, the Reds will suddenly have a deep pitching staff going into the second half of the season.

What’s not working: The Reds’ offense and pitching rank toward the bottom of MLB in many statistics, and this is because any player I have not mentioned by name yet is off to a rough start. Here is a list of all the players on the Reds with at least 30 plate appearances that are hitting under .200: Tyler Stephenson, Matt McClain, KeBryan Hayes (hitting .058), T.J. Friedl, Noelvi Marte and Will Benson. Another mind blowing offensive stat for this team so far is that outside of the aforementioned Stewart, De La Cruz, Suarez, and Stephenson (due to fielding), not a single player has a positive WAR. The Reds have hitters who have been exciting before in McClain, Spencer Steer and Nathaniel Lowe, but there is definitely something in the water at Great American Ballpark that is causing such an offensive funk for most of the roster. Granted, there is no way this lineup should be this bad the rest of the season, since it is almost identical to the lineup that got them to the post season a year ago. Pitchers Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer are due for some positive regression at some point as well, since both have proven they are better than an ERA over five. The scary thing here for Cubs fans is that this Reds club has had serious problems on both sides of the ball, and is still 15-8. Once they get going, they might be viewed as the biggest threat to the Cubs in the division.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 

We’ve seen this happen in recent memory, but how real is it this time? The Buccos finished April of 2023 with a 13-9 record before the wheels fell off. This team does have a different vibe to it, however. They have the best pitcher in the world in Paul Skenes. 20-year-old phenom Konnor Griffin has made his debut right after signing an extension. Oneil Cruz finally looks like a key offensive piece, and newly acquired Brandon Lowe is mashing with seven home runs. Last season, Pirates starters finished sixth in ERA, and this season, they are currently second at 2.81. Pitching will be a strength as long as Skenes is healthy, but the question once again will be the perennially suspect offense.

What’s working: As previously mentioned, the Pirates have one of the highest-upside, young starting staffs in the game. Interestingly enough, Skenes’ 3.27 ERA is the highest of their five starters. 2025 top prospect Bubba Chandler is the only other starter sporting an ERA above 3.00, as Mitch Keller and Braxton Ashcraft are below 3.00. Cameron Mlodzinski, who has quietly been one of the more consistent arms around since 2023, has a dazzling 1.77 ERA through four starts. Jared Jones threw a live bullpen last week and should be joining the rotation sometime in June. The bullpen quartet of Dennis Santana, Yohan Ramirez, Isaac Mattson, and Gregory Soto have been the bright spots in a bullpen that is more good than great to this point. Hunter Barco, who has pitched briefly in the majors this season before being optioned, is one of their higher ranked prospects and should be up again soon.

If the offense, which ranks top 10 in runs scored, batting average, home runs, wRC+, and most other categories, is able to stay consistent enough through 162 games, this team could easily win the division. Outside of Cruz and Lowe, free-agent addition Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .329 with a .960 OPS. With Andrew McCutchen in Texas after his somewhat controversial exit, Bryan Reynolds, having been with the team since 2019, is the veteran leader and is enjoying a nice .809 OPS after his substandard 2025. They’re also getting solid contributions from role players Jake Mangum, Spencer Horwitz, and the Nicks: Gonzales and Yorke. Konnor Griffin is not off to the hottest start at the plate, but he has five hits in his last four games, and could be turning a corner. New veteran DH Marcell Ozuna is also seeing the ball better with a pair of homers in the last week, after starting the season ice cold. 

What’s not working: This is a hard question for this team, because nearly everything seems to be working. Yes, Griffin hasn’t been great through his first few weeks, but the rest of the lineup is getting the job done. They do need a catcher, as 2021 number one overall pick Henry Davis is looking more and more like a bust. Last season, Davis was usurped by another former top prospect Joey Bart, but now they are hitting both under .200. Their No. 9 prospect Rafael Flores made his debut last season, and could fit into the equation this season, but he is hitting .208 with Triple-A Indianapolis. In fact, none of their top prospects in Triple-A are hitting at all, as Jhostynxon Garcia and Termarr Johnson have averages under .160. The Buccos better hope their group at the MLB level can continue to hit, because there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope in the upper minors right now. There were questions defensively after Cruz had a terrible opening weekend in center field, and O’Hearn was signed to be a makeshift outfielder, but they have been okay, if not better than anticipated. Overall, the vibes are as good as they’ve been in over a decade at PNC Park, so let’s check back later to see how they’re holding up.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals were never supposed to be a main character for the 2026 season. They sold veterans Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras and were set on rebuilding, as their only “significant” addition was RHP Dustin May. Yet, here they are, tied with the Cubs, albeit with a -10 run differential. Cubs fans know the Redbirds have always found a way to remain competitive, and while this is the weakest roster in the division on paper, that could change quickly if some of the early results prove to be no fluke.

What’s working: Former top prospect Jordan Walker leads the NL in home runs with eight and all of baseball in WAR with 1.8. He is hitting .305 with a 1.013 OPS and is finally looking like the offensive force he was projected to be. Still only 24 years old, this looks like the breakout Cardinals fans have been waiting for, and if he ends up being the new offensive face of the team for the next half decade, St. Louis will yet again hold one of the best hitters in baseball. Alec Burleson has seemingly found his home at first base after bouncing around from the infield to outfield over his first few seasons. He is hitting .280 with an .820 OPS with more walks than strikeouts. Former seventh overall pick J.J. Wetherholt made his debut on Opening Day and has a .750 OPS, which is third on the team.

The pitching has been a bigger question mark, but they have a few young arms off to hot starts, who are auditioning for their role on the present and future Cardinals staffs. Although he is not striking hitters out, righty Michael McGreevy leads the team with a 2.49 ERA in four starts. Andre Pallante and Matthew Liberatore have been solid contributors as well, and should improve as the season progresses. The real treasure here on the Cards’ pitching staff is closer Riley O’Brien. The 31-year-old righty is building off a breakout 2025, where he pitched to a 2.06 ERA in 48 innings. He hasn’t given up a run this season in 12 1/3 innings and has a K/9 over ten. JoJo Romero has also been serviceable in the back end of the bullpen, with a 2.25 ERA. Likewise, 2021 fifth-round draft pick Gordon Graceffo has an ERA under 1.00 in his 10 2/3 innings pitched. Breakout rookie Matt Svanson was their best reliever last season, but has struggled so far in 2026. If he can reign in the walks (7.6/9), he would go a long way toward improving on their 25th-ranked bullpen xERA. In terms of reinforcements on the prospect lists, slugging outfielder Joshua Baez and pitchers Jurrangelo Cijntje and Quinn Mathews should see regular playing time before the season ends. Outfielder Lars Nootbaar should be back by late May or early June, which will certainly improve the offense as well.

What’s not working: The underlying stats for the offense (sixth in WAR, 13th in wRC+, 15th in batting average) show that the Redbirds could produce at least league-average offense throughout the whole year, but the pitching is a different story. They have the worst team K/9 in the game at 6.38, and they’re also in the bottom third in the league in BB/9. Free-agent addition Dustin May has given up 15 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings but has an FIP under four, signaling some positive regression could be looming. Kyle Leahy, on the other hand, has an FIP close to six, and does not at all resemble the guy who was one of their most important starters last season. They’ve also gotten lucky, being 5-0 in extra innings, and 5-0 in one run games. O’Brien deserves credit where it's due, but he is not exactly a proven big league arm. The Cards will need a quick turnaround from veteran Ryne Stanek in order to continue winning close contests.

Milwaukee Brewers: 

The defending NL Central champs started the season hot; they swept the White Sox to open the season and followed that up with series victories against the Rays and Royals. Then, they hit a skid on a road trip to the East, where they lost the second and third games of their series in Boston, and were swept by the Nationals. They had a nice rebound last week, winning both series against the spiraling AL champion Blue Jays and the scrappy, but still meh, Marlins. The offense that carried them last season has been middle of the pack in nearly any category you can name, and the pitching is very average as well. The Brewers started slower last year, and came roaring back, much to the dismay of Cubs fans everywhere. With reigning Manager of the Year Pat Murphy at the controls, and young ace Jacob Misiorowski leading the starting staff, there are still many reasons to bet on the Crew again. 

What’s working: Misiorowski is leading baseball with 42 strikeouts, which is helping fans forget that former ace Freddy Peralta is on the Mets. Brandon Woodruff is having a nice start to the year as well, in what he is surely hoping is going to be his first fully healthy season in a few years. The veteran pitching on the qualifying offer has a 3.42 ERA in his four starts. Speaking of ERA, Chad Patrick’s is under 1.00 in 19 innings pitched. Kyle Harrison, a former top-100 prospect, seems comfortable in his third organization in under a year. The bullpen hasn’t been nearly as effective, but DL Hall, Aaron Ashby and Grant Anderson have kept the group afloat.

Offensively, William Contreras and Bryce Turang are each hitting over .300, with Turang’s .437 OBP leading the NL. Garrett Mitchell has an OPS exceeding .800, and Gary Sanchez is tied with Jake Bauers for the team lead in home runs with five. Jackson Chourio is expected back sometime in May, which will be a much-needed boost to this lineup. 

What’s not working: The Brewers have a few key contributors not working right now. Christian Yelich just hit the IL and is expected to miss about a month. Andrew Vaughn has been out since Opening Day, and pitchers Quinn Priester, Craig Yoho, and Jared Koenig are all out as well. Injuries are a part of the game, and the Brewers are good at finding replacements, but they need Chourio, Yelich, and Vaughn in the lineup as much as possible because they have some guys who are not hitting. Joey Ortiz is hitting below the Mendoza line, along with Sal Frelick, but with Ortiz, it's looking more and more evident that his ceiling is that of a weak hitter. The Luis Rengifo third baseman strategy is flat out not working, as he is currently worth -0.3 WAR while hitting .167. Too bad their other newly acquired infielder, David Hamilton, is also hitting sub-.200, while top prospects Jett Williams and extension recipient Cooper Pratt are struggling in Triple, so it looks like Rengifo is the answer for the foreseeable future. They’re in need of their bullpen reinforcements too, as prospect Brandon Sproat has given up 13 earned runs and already been moved out of the rotation. The biggest issue in their pen is closer Trevor Megill, who has been brutal to start the season. He has an ERA over 10.00 while giving up eight earned runs, while last season, he gave up 13 earned runs in total. With an offense that is not nearly as potent as it was a season ago, the Brewers can’t afford to be coughing up leads late in games.

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