The Chicago Cubs Will Play 113 Games Before the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

Barring rainouts that are made up late in the season, the Chicago Cubs will play 113 regular-season games before the 2026 MLB trade deadline, which the league officially set this week for August 3. In a recent collective bargaining agreement, the league and the players union changed the rules around the deadline, allowing the commissioner's office to set the date of the deadline each year. Until the early 2000s, the deadline had been fixed at 11:59 PM on July 31. Then, for a while, it was still glued to that date, but the time moved up, so that deadline deals happened during drivetime and prime time.

Now, it can be moved around by the commissioner, to avoid having it land on weekends or dates when many teams are playing night games that might be disrupted by last-minute roster changes. In this case, since July 31 is a Friday, the league has moved the deadline back to the following Monday. Half the league plays that day, but Rob Manfred and his staff are gambling that clubs will conduct the bulk of their business after the games of Sunday, Aug. 2 and on the morning of Aug. 3.

It seems like a small change, but in truth, this is the latest in a series of steps pushing the trade deadline later and later in the season. That began with one huge change, but it's been followed by several small ones going in the same direction.

Cubs fans of a certain age remember the famous Rick Sutcliffe trade, which so galvanized the 1984 team. It happened on June 15, because until the mid-1980s, that was the date of the trade deadline. This is why, for baseball traditionalists, Memorial Day is such an important landmark for teams in terms of self-evaluation. Once that holiday passed, clubs only had roughty another fortnight to set and pursue their direction.

After the deadline moved back to July 31, it stayed there for decades—but Opening Day didn't stand still. It began creeping earlier in April around the time of the switch to the date of the deadline, and then in 2018, it jumped forward another week. For almost a decade, the league has been playing the first full series of most seasons in March. Here's the result—the number of games the Cubs had played by the time the trade deadline arrived in selected seasons, chosen for regular intervals and recency:

• 1984: 61
• 1994: 103
• 2004: 104
• 2014: 107
• 2024: 109
• 2025: 108
• 2026: 113*

It almost looks like one big change, then stasis, but the creep is real. The nominal deadline has steadily moved deeper into the season calendar, making for less value delivered by players acquired at the deadline. On the other hand, it's important to note a force moving the 'real' deadline the opposite direction: the evolution of the waiver trade period.

For decades, the deadline was fixed on June 15, but in practice, teams could and did make trades until the end of August. These tended to be smaller deals, but by an unspoken (or at least, spoken of only on backchannels, lest they get into trouble) agreement, teams wouldn't claim a player being waived by another club for the purpose of trading them. That allowed players to be dealt after the deadline.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, though, some teams began to attempt greater brinksmanship with that strategy, trying to deal for very important players on the other side of the deadline. The trend came to a head in 1993, when Atlanta claimed Dennis Martinez on waivers to prevent the Giants from getting ahold of him as the two sides raced to the finish line in the NL West. Norms shifted quickly, and for the next 15 years, the waiver trade period existed—but it was curtailed. Teams could only trade players to the team who claimed them on revocable waivers, and only players with big contracts or some noteworthy warts would clear the waiver wire and become freely movable. 

Finally, ahead of the 2019 season, the league got rid of the waiver trade period altogether. In essence, then, the trade deadline spent a long time floating in the wide space between mid-June and the end of August; then got compressed into a sloshy space from the end of July to the end of August; then became, effectively, the end of July. Now, it's the end of July, period—except when the league decides it can slosh a few days into August, after all. Meanwhile, with Opening Day sliding around and the structure of the schedule (with regard to off days, scheduled doubleheaders and so on) changing often, the number of games played before the deadline (or "deadline," or deadlines, or whatever) hit has changed meaningfully over the years.

It's fair to say, though, that we're now headed for the most restrictive deadline in baseball history. It's a hard stop on trades, and it comes with roughly 50 games left on the schedule for each team. That doesn't give anyone much incentive to trade top prospects for a player, unless it be someone under team control beyond this year. It does allow a fistful of extra games for a team or two to fall out of contention and decide to sell, but because prices are likely to be low, some clubs might simply hold onto their guys.

Deadlines spur action, especially in high-information, competitive marketplaces. Teams know their own players and everyone else's too well to make a reckless trade because they happen to love a given player, and often, only the time pressure of the deadline can move two clubs off their intransigent positions in a negotiation. We should expect to see fewer and less exciting trades because of this change to the deadline's math. 

On the other hand, this is extra incentive to teams to be active before the season begins. Teams with guys who become free agents in the fall have to know that their trade values will tank by the end of July, when an acquiring team also won't be able to extend the player a qualifying offer. In the handful of weeks before the season begins, expect to see a few members of the prospective 2026-27 free-agent class dealt, because now is the time for those trades, especially given the way the schedule is working out this year.

The Cubs still aren't likely to trade Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki. They could, however, be more likely to sign someone like Zac Gallen, who would give them unwieldy but excellent pitching depth. Rather than be a desperate team trying to pry loose a starter in mid-July when their club would rather wait for Aug. 2, teams can still sign free agents like Gallen, Framber Valdez or Chris Bassitt, so they don't end up needing to do much at what looks to be a quiet deadline. If you're likely to get two fewer starts from a pitcher now than you would have when trading for them at the deadline 15 years ago, you might as well sign someone in February, instead. The financial price of doing so will be lower than the prospect price you pay in late July, once you account for all the extra work you'll get from the player.

There's something a bit boring and ickily corporate about the deadline becoming a floating thing. It feels like Manfred and his office choose the deadline out of no consideration but convenience each year, and baseball really isn't supposed to cater to the convenience of executives or players. It's also moving too deep into the season, where the impact of the summer trading period dwindles toward zero. That's bad for baseball, which has always gotten lots of juice out of sports-talk radio, taxi driver banter, and family arguments at the 4th of July over what the local nine needs to do to get better. Moving the deadline earlier would make more sense, but the league prefers to cater to convenience—and to the rationalistic economic minds of modern front offices. That's a shame, but it's only a small thing. More than anything else, it's a curiosity. 

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[Development DL]

Insightful and informative.  Did not realize this had been implemented.   I agree with your premise’s.   I have thought for a bit , the budget was going to trail only . lA , the big Apples , and Tor and Philly . 

With a signing like Gallen ,being the lynchpin . 
Soild piece 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29 by Development DL
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