Jack Neely: What was his injury, should he be back?

[craig]

Hi, guys.  I'm thinking Neely got injured around last June. 

1. Did we ever get info why?  Any surgery?  
2. Maybe back, and 100% healthy this spring? 
3. Or maybe a 60-day DL type guy who won't even count against the 40-man?
4. *IF* he magically has full health and magically improves his command somewhat, he might be a deep depth option.  
5. 40-man is almost full, and a guy can't be placed on 60-man till camp starts.  So *if* there are waiver claims they want to make that can't wait for camp, or if they sign a FA outfielder or something prior to camp, he might be a de-roster candidate, too, if they want a 40-man spot sooner than camp?  
6. Guessing that if Neely is healthy, and they do end up needing to de-roster somebody, I'd rather de-roster one of Dean, Hollowell, Rolison, or Roberts.  
7. Seemed like his stuff, velocity, K-stuff was pretty nice after the Leiter trade.  But didn't seem as fast or as K-excellent last season.  Not sure if he was pitching hurt the whole time, or if the Cubs infrastructure had suggested adjustments that ended up degrading his stuff?  
8. But yeah, the original stuff/velocity seemed pretty good, just not enough command.  Would love to see Zombro and Cubs staff help him recover the velocity and life, but somehow help his control to bump up a little bit?  One of those drop-arm-slot-6-degrees or something type tweaks?  Who knows.  

 

 

Edited January 14 by craig

[craig]

Add-on note. 

1. Cubs ended up with an excellent bullpen last year, with the mix-and-match 1-year vets. 
2. They are going again with 5 vet FA's, four new, and most short-term.   (Harvey-Maton-Webb-Milner-Thielbar)
3. So start that process again next year.
4. It would be super nice if the Cubs could internally develop some of their own young guys.  Have them cheap instead of spending $30M on free agents, of considerable age and variably iffy reliability.  Last year internal Palencia converting from wildman to a good, effective guy was huge.  
5. Would be SO helpful if they could develop some guys from within the Hodge, Brown, Assad, Little, Wicks, Martin, Neely, Rollison, Robert, Hollowell crowd who'd end up being actually pretty good.  With enough stuff, control, consistency and composure to be good and throw enough strikes.  You could hypothetically literally save enough $$ to cover a Hoerner-sized raise, for example.  And kinda knowing your guys, and not entering an offseason with no idea how the bullpen market will shape up and how much it will cost to patch something together.  Lets go, pitchers and HOttovy and Zombro and infrastructure!  Get better, get good, let's go!

[Bertz]

IIRC it was a lower body injury for Neely

With modern bullpen construction I have seen some smart folks suggest the plan should be "let's collect a bunch of stuff guys and cycle through them based on who *at this moment* is healthy and throwing strikes."  Obviously you can't horde the ~20 you'd need to fill out an eight man bullpen, but amassing 4-5 to fill out two slots?  I think that's doable.  

In the same way last year Hodge and Pearson ended up blowing up on us while Palencia and Keller ended up showing out, looking forward Palencia's still got pretty significant downside risk to him and we shouldn't leave Hodge/Little/Neely for dead.

[craig]

Great!  Lower-body injury in June would seem unlikely be interfere with either offseason training/tinkering, or with being 100% for camp and season.  I'm pretty interested in him as a stuff guy who might eventually make it work for the Cubs.  

• 2024, >4:1 K/BB.  79K/18BB/50IP/4HR.  
• 2023, >4:1 K/BB.  74/17/47/4.  Those were some excellent K/BB rates, without problematic HR.  
• 2025,  <1.5:1 K/BB.  39/27 K/BB at Iowa (30IP), K's still solid but walks went crazy up.  

Who knows why?  Working on something?  Impacted by lower-body stuff well before IL?  Just randomly out of whack?  Cubs coached some adjustments that made him worse?  My recall is that velocity reports were down last year, for whatever reason.  Beats me. 

But hoping with a winter to work on things, Tread or wherever, that he'll both have his velocity and life back, but also be able to recover his location from 24/23, and perhaps make it better.  Zombro, please get him fixed!  

Agree, Palancia may regress, and agree that Little, Hodge, and Neely aren't dead.  

Some obvious practicals: 

1. young guys have options.  You can see if healthy and throwing strikes at this moment at Iowa, before pulling them up. 
2. That wasn't comparably true for Merryweather or Pressly or Neris.  Veterans on guaranteed contracts get big-league spots and get to succeed or fail in big-league innings.  If they are NOT healthy, or are NOT throwing strikes, those failures hurt the big-league eam.  
3. Relievers only pitch 5-12 spring-training innings, right?  Too small a sample to be sure that Neris is cooked, versus just kind working himself into shape.  
4. I like the reality that we could have Little, Hodge, Neely, Brown, Wicks, and the Biochemist all getting innings at Iowa, optimizing their control, and being available.  If some of the guaranteed-contract guys age-decline, or don't show the control they had previously that made them big-league useful, you've got a schlew of options.  
5. Non-roster stuff pickups are fun to take shots on, and every once in a while you hit on a Keller who adds a bunch of velo.  But, there is more to pitching than stuff or velocity.  Many healthy high-velo "stuff" non-rosters are available because they lack adequate location.  Pearson very fast, very little control, zero command.  A healthy non-roster stuff guy is probably non-roster available because he's been bad, probably due to location.  If Tyler Beede could locate consistently, he'd not be non-roster available.  Maybe Zombro and Hottovy can make it click for him.  Corbin Martin has some stuff, and hopefully he'll emerge; but he's non-roster available because he's always been variably bad, and he's always been variably bad because he's always been variably wild.  Maybe Zombro and Hottovy can make it click for him, but odds aren't super favorable. 
6. this is partly where Keller was different:  he'd always been a pretty good control guy, it was his stuff that had lacked.  But suddenly he shows up with the decent control he'd always had, but suddenly his velo was way up.  Great pickup!
7. I kinda love non-roster take-a-shot guys who are kinda coming back from injury.  Sometimes if they prove fully recovered, both stuff and control can win.  
8. I also like non-roster take-a-shot guys who don't have a free-agency option.  Some have option for FA at end of camp, if not rostered; or have an option in May if not rostered.  I like guys who look healthy and stuffy in camp, but who can get sent to Iowa, show whether they can throw enough strikes there, and then call them up when opportunity knocks.  But yeah, with cats like Beede or Martin or Snider, I'd like them able to go to Iowa and stick there for a while, and see if they can sustain success, and can out-pitch our Hodge-Brown-Little-Neely-Martin guys.