Anatomy of an At-Bat: What Alex Bregman Brings to the Table

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Here at North Side Baseball, we're going to bring you a lot of deep analytical dives on Alex Bregman over the next few days, weeks and months. Matt Trueblood has already gotten in the weeds over his swing tilt and his fit in the lineup, while others have discussed him being the Cubs' top target and what it means for Matt Shaw. If you are familiar with what I enjoy, you'll know that I'm a massive proponent of the analytical side of the game, that I feel strongly that the data matters. But excuse me for a moment, because the meatbalal side of me sometimes just feels like we have to see it to believe it. To see what Bregman actually does with the bat in his hand, let's break down a plate appearance he had against the Tampa Bay Rays in September and see what Bregman is capable of bringing to the table for the Cubs lineup in a different way;.

To set the stage, the season is getting late. The 84-70 Boston Red Sox are visiting division rivals, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox are in the American League Wild Card hunt, entering the day battling with teams such as Houston and Cleveland for a chance to extend their season with a playoff run. The Rays have had a somewhat disappointing season, but have Drew Rasmussen on the bump for the game. Rasmussen is in the midst of an excellent season where he will finish with an ERA below 3.00; it's a tough matchup, even if the Rays' overall record is less than sterling. 

The plate appearance in question is in the third inning and is the second matchup of the evening between Bregman and Rasmussen. In the top of the first, Rasmussen quickly got up 0-2 on the star third baseman, but after an at-bat-saving foul ball, the right-handed pitcher threw four balls, some of which were close takes, walking the Sox hitter. While I won't dive super deep into this matchup, I do want to point out one pitch in particular; the 0-0 cutter that Bregman watched. This is a great pitch. It's 91 mph, right on the knees. You can't do anything with this pitch. This is nearly unhittable; keep this in mind for later.

 

Getting into the appearance I'd like to highlight, the game now sits with the Rays leading 2-1, and there is already one out in the top of the third (Trevor Story started the inning with a weak ground out to second). Bregman steps into the batters box and takes strike one again: a sweeper right down the pipe. While yoiur initial reaction may be "why would you take that, it's right down Broadway?!", it's important to note that Bregman is not good against sweepers, finishing the year with a -3 run value on the pitch (by far his worst of 2025). He has just a .200 wOBA on the pitch. Drew Rasmussen didn't surrender a home run on the sweeper in 2025, either. It doesn't matter that this is right over the plate; it's not a pitch you have to swing at, and Bregman doesn't. This is clearly a plan. Bregman is, once again, unconcerned about getting behind in the count.

 

Now ahead in the count, Rasmussen has lots of options. With four pitches that graded out with a Stuff+ rating of at least 108, he also has deception on his side: "what will be throw"? He could go back to the sweeper, but it's not his only choice. Maybe he goes with the fastball up, or a slider/cutter off the plate. He got him to look at a perfectly placed cutter in the plate appearance before, so maybe he goes back there? The righty decides to do just that, and fires up a wicked cutter that a lesser hitter may have chased off the plate, but Bregman shows great discipline and evens the count. What could have been 0-2 or a weak ground ball to second is now an even count; Bregman is back in the at-bat. 

 

On f1-1. the Rays' pitcher gets a little wild, wasting two 96-mph fastballs, one up, and another out. Neither are particularly close; neither require much analysis. No one was going to swing at them in a 1-1 or 2-1 count. The first was well high and the second, well outside. They're just not good pitches; nor would they get many swings. Bregman's patience has earned him a 3-1 spot and the ability to remain patient and pick a pitch.

Perhaps, however, Bregman gets a little too patient. Rasmussen leaves a cutter right down the pipe that Bregman probably should have crushed. Maybe he was expecting it to dive away from him a little more like the 0-0 pitch in his first plate appearance. Maybe he was just surprised he left it there. We can't know for sure. You can even see him sigh a little after the pitch; he knew that was a mistake pitch and he didn't offer. But this is also why you get ahead in the count: you can be very selective. 

Another reasoning; Rasmussen hasn't been the same strikeout artist in 2025 as he had been in the past. He's controlled batted balls wonderfully, but his strikeout rate sits below the league average. Bregman must not be overly concerned with striking out; he hasn't swung the bat yet all game.

 

As the count is full, neither side is overly interested in giving in and the Red Sox hitter is going to be forced to swing the bat. Bregman knows that the season is on the line in every at-bat at this point of the year, so if you have an opportunity, you need to take it. Rasmussen is a fierce competitor and knows the teeth of the Boston lineup is behind the third baseman. An out here is his best chance of shutting down any possible momentum. Rasmussen dials up another pitch from his arsenal, this time going with a sinker around the same place at which he got Bregman to watch a cutter drop in. Bregman stays on it, and fouls it off. He doesn't have elite bat speed, but because his bat remains in the zone so long and his hands are quick, he's able to get enough of it to stay alive.

 

Now, Rasmussen dials up another fastball, this time running it up to 96 mph. It's headed to the same area as the cutter early in the count, which was such a close one. It's a ball, but it's not so much of a ball that Bregman can leave it up to an umpire. This isn't a waste pitch; this is a pitch designed to get a swing, and he gets it. The problem, if you're Rasmussen, is that Bregman isn't going to whiff on this. He's able to get his hands out, flips the bat and fouls it off. The appearance remains alive. There is a reason Bregman's strikeout rate has been elite; he just doesn't swing and miss very often.

Two straight heaters have been fouled off; one down, one away. Rasmussen isn't ready to give in yet, and throws a third consecutive fastball. However, this time, he changes the location. This is a gnarly 95-mph pitch up and in on the hands a bit. It's a strike, right on the black. This isn't a pitch you're going to get on top of, even with a flat bat path like Bregman's. But again, Bregman lives to see another pitch, getting his hands up enough to foul it straight back. He's made it clear; you're not going to get him on the four-seamer. 

 

We're eight pitches deep, and the battle continues. Thus far, Bregman has let two pitches go by in hittable spots, spit on an outside cutter, fouled off a handful of fastballs, and knows that something probably has to change on this pitch. Rasmussen's best pitch is likely his cutter, and he throws it 30 percent of the time. He loves getting the thing low and away, like he did on the previous at-bat and like he did on the 1-0 pitch this time.

He goes back to it here, but he makes a mistake; he hangs it. Unlike the last time, where Bregman watched a hittable cutter go, he takes advantage of the mistake. If you pay attention to Rasmussen, you'll see him mouth something. I'll assume it's a four-letter word; he knows what happened. After eight pitches of being highly selective—of fouling off and grinding him down—Boston's slugger gets ahold of one; Bregman ties the game at 2-2.

 

This is what a professional at-bat looks like: an at-bat with a very defined plan. Bregman knew not to attack an early pitch ill-suited to his swing. He knew where Rasmussen throws the cutter, and he didn't expand the zone until he had to. He even made up for watching a hittable cutter; he learned a lesson mid-at-bat.

These kinds of at-bats are coming to Wrigley Field for the next five years. And while we can't be certain what Bregman will age into—we can't foresee injuries, and cannot predict the future—what I can say with confidence is that that kind of approach ages like fine wine. You don't forget how to plan or stay within your game just because you get a little older. 

Maybe you're not convinced about his bat tilt, or having Matt Shaw play as a utility man; that's okay. But watching the man work brought me a new appreciation for what he does well. Bregman never flinched and never got worried that he was down two strikes. He made up for watching a hittable pitch. He simply outworked Rasmussen in that moment, until the Rays' hurler finally made the final mistake. The more I watch how Bregman works, the more I get excited that the Cubs will have this as a main feature of their lineup from 2026 and beyond. Seeing is believing. 

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What do you think of Bregman's plate approach? Where would you hit in him in the lineup? Sound off in the comments below; let's talk all things Alex Bregman. 

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