Why on Earth are the Cubs Paying Hunter Harvey $6 Million Next Season?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Since being a first-round pick out of high school in 2013, Hunter Harvey has pitched 453 innings. That's not 453 innings in the majors, or 453 innings in the last five years. In parts of 13 professional seasons, Harvey has pitched a total of 453 innings. Since moving to the bullpen in 2020, he's been consistently good, with a fastball that reaches the upper 90s, a good splitter and a sometimes devastating slider. Even in that limited role, though, he's had no success staying healthy. 

The closest Harvey has ever come to pitching a full season was in 2023, when he piled up 60 innings in the Nationals bullpen and "only" missed a month with an elbow strain. In 2025, he dealt with a teres major strain that kept him out until after the All-Star break and an adductor strain that knocked him out for good in mid-August. He made less than $4 million this year, and only managed to pitch 10 2/3 innings in 12 games for Kansas City. He's averaged just 34 innings at the big-league level over the last five seasons.

It's peculiar, therefore, that the Cubs ponied up $6 million in guaranteed money to sign Harvey, according to ESPN. He's an above-average reliever, when healthy, but he's very rarely healthy, and at age 31, it's unlikely that that will change. He's had at least four separate elbow injuries; three different shoulder issues; an oblique strain; and multiple leg injuries as a pro. The Cubs have plenty of money left to spend this winter, but their budget is not limitless. On the contrary, they're unlikely to be allowed to spend more than about $230 million on their 2026 roster, and that figure is already over $190 million, after the commitment to Harvey.

This isn't a wise expenditure of resources. It's the kind of thing the Dodgers or Mets might do—paying for a pitcher with a chance to work in high-leverage moments in October, but rolling the dice on an exceptionally fraught health record. The Dodgers and Mets, though, will each spend about $100 million more than the Cubs will in 2026. Unlike the Dodgers, too, the Cubs have little chance of winning their division. Harvey is the wrong kind of luxury item—like a high-maintenance sports car that doesn't even impress people all that much between its too-frequent breakdowns.

Harvey really is a fine middle reliever, as these things go. He's struck out 26.8% of opposing batters and walked just 6.8% of them in his time in the majors. Still, signing him to a guaranteed deal needlessly ossifies Chicago's bullpen, and giving him a substantial sum (more than Phil Maton will make in 2026, though he's guaranteed a second season and has a chance to see his salary rise further via incentives) risks tying their hands financially.

As it stands, the Cubs' relief corps features five hurlers—Maton, Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb—who can't be optioned to the minors. Daniel Palencia can theoretically be sent down, but in any scenario wherein the Cubs entertain doing so, their bullpen is in big trouble, anyway. In theory, that leaves two spots for optionable arms, but in reality, the Cubs are still likely to add a starting pitcher this offseason, pushing Colin Rea into a long relief role. Rea, too, is locked into the roster, so they would then have just one spot with real flexibility remaining.

In one sense, that part is a minor concern, because Harvey is so likely to spend so much time on the injured list that he barely clogs the pipeline. Still, spending both a roster spot and a meaningful amount of money on him seems like a bizarre decision. He's the level of player and risk where, if signing him costs them a chance to do anything else they might wish to do, it was a mistake. The Cubs must believe they'll unlock something in him, either by taking his game to another level or by keeping him healthy, where all his previous employers have failed to do so. They shouldn't have had to put such stakes on that kind of wager, though, and the smart money says they'll rue the choice to do so sometime next summer.

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[Clark_Addison]

Why don't they spend money......they spent how much to get a middle reliever.....such a bad take. Harvey is good when healthy and that is what this is, a high risk/high reward move that only costs $6m for a guy who (if healthy, I'll agree) is an 8/9 guy with velocity and K's. Let's hope he is finally healthy (he has to pass a physical), because if so, this will be a steal. 

[Clark_Addison]

Also more than Phil Maton.....technically you are right but spinning untruthfully. 

Maton is getting 5.5m in 2026 is true, (0.5m is not a substantial difference though) but he is guaranteed 14.5M for his 2 year deal with $3M of it as a buyout of a 3rd year club option) So he is either getting 2/14.5 or 7.25m per year (which is more than 6m) or he is getting 3/20M or 6.67m/year (which is also more than 6m). I highly doubt Maton would like to trade contracts. 

Also how much did Jed tell you his budget was for 2026? Oh, he didn't, so you are guessing based on the past what it is for this year. It might be the 1st level of luxury tax, it might be $230m, it also might be $260m. The fact is they don't tell anyone, as they don't want other teams or agents to know how much they have left. My guess is they rarely spend it all, nor do we ever know as it is really hard to fall exactly on your budget. Some years they go under and some years over as the Cubs do operate in a carry over system versus a corporate america use it or lose it system. I think we will have a much better understanding in about a week or so as Imai and Okamoto have to decide and then based on if they sign either (or both) they will be done or move on to someone like a Bregman or one of the other top SP's or even the trade market. Best part is they don't have to add, we would like them to add some more but they don't have any huge hole they have to fill, just ones we would like to see an upgrade at the top and push everyone done a spot to make the whole team better. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Harvey is getting the 15th highest AAV of FA RP, and all the names below him on the list are some combination of lefty specialists that aren’t leverage options, guys who throw substantially less hard, or pitchers that simply aren’t nearly as good.  The degree of any potential overpay is a rounding error as it relates to impacting other signings unless you think he was destined to be closer to the league minimum, in which case it’s you and not the Cubs that need to recalibrate on his value.

[Jeff Alson]

I too was surprised by the $6 million contract for one year. Obviously the Cubs do think that they can either keep him healthy or at least get high-leverage innings in October. Time will tell.

More important, I think this signing suggests that they will go past the first luxury tax threshold this year. My prediction is that they will sign both a starting pitcher and infielder (avoiding trading any of their key young players) which will take them above the threshold. They have shown a willingness to bounce around the threshold from year to year, and it will be very feasible to drop back under the threshold in 2027 with all the expiring contracts at the end of 2026. 

Finally, I was surprised by Matt's statement that "the Cubs have little chance of winning their division." Current NL pennant odds imply that the Cubs and Brewers are co-favorites to win the NLCD, each with a 30-35% chance to win the division. That would be similar to saying that a .325 hitter has "little chance" to get a hit.

[gflore34]

57 minutes ago, Jeff Alson said:

I too was surprised by the $6 million contract for one year. Obviously the Cubs do think that they can either keep him healthy or at least get high-leverage innings in October. Time will tell.

More important, I think this signing suggests that they will go past the first luxury tax threshold this year. My prediction is that they will sign both a starting pitcher and infielder (avoiding trading any of their key young players) which will take them above the threshold. They have shown a willingness to bounce around the threshold from year to year, and it will be very feasible to drop back under the threshold in 2027 with all the expiring contracts at the end of 2026. 

Finally, I was surprised by Matt's statement that "the Cubs have little chance of winning their division." Current NL pennant odds imply that the Cubs and Brewers are co-favorites to win the NLCD, each with a 30-35% chance to win the division. That would be similar to saying that a .325 hitter has "little chance" to get a hit.

 Ignore that, in nearly every piece, he finds a way to make such a statement.  He also thought the little engine that could had a chance against the Dodgers.

Edited December 29, 2025 by gflore34

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Jeff Alson said:

I too was surprised by the $6 million contract for one year. Obviously the Cubs do think that they can either keep him healthy or at least get high-leverage innings in October. Time will tell.

More important, I think this signing suggests that they will go past the first luxury tax threshold this year. My prediction is that they will sign both a starting pitcher and infielder (avoiding trading any of their key young players) which will take them above the threshold. They have shown a willingness to bounce around the threshold from year to year, and it will be very feasible to drop back under the threshold in 2027 with all the expiring contracts at the end of 2026. 

Finally, I was surprised by Matt's statement that "the Cubs have little chance of winning their division." Current NL pennant odds imply that the Cubs and Brewers are co-favorites to win the NLCD, each with a 30-35% chance to win the division. That would be similar to saying that a .325 hitter has "little chance" to get a hit.

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