As Cubs Keep Options, Roster Spots Open, Some Opportunities Arise—and Some Are Missed

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Ten of the 30 teams who make up MLB have a full 40-man roster. Eight more have 39 players on that reserve list, and six more have 38. The other six teams break down as follows: Yankees, Padres, 36; Phillies, Rangers, Angels, 35; Cubs, 31. Chicago not only has fewer players on their big-league roster than any of their 29 competitors, but four fewer than the trio of teams who would otherwise represent the extreme low end of the distribution.

Having that many vacancies provides lots of flexibility, but it also stands as a reminder of how much work lies ahead of Jed Hoyer this winter. The circumstance is a result of the team having lost a startling number of players to free agency—Kyle Tucker, Willi Castro, Justin Turner, Carlos Santana, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Brad Keller, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale and Reese McGuire all finished the season with the team but were eligible for free agency after the World Series or (in McGuire's case) were non-tendered last month. However, it's also a result of the team's failure to build a deep farm system. Chicago left several players off their 40-man roster when the deadline came to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, but when that draft happened Wednesday, they didn't lose any of the guys in question. Even some of the players who are currently on the roster (James Triantos, Pedro Ramirez, Riley Martin, Luke Little, Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, Jack Neely) are fringe pieces with little immediate value to the parent club, and a few more (Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara) either haven't yet gotten a chance to prove themselves or have seemed not to have the full confidence of the organization. Where there should be robust reserves of homegrown talent to reinforce the roster, right now, there are blank spaces.

Again, that has its upsides. The Cubs signed right-handed reliever Collin Snider to a minor-league deal Wednesday. Snider, 30, is a funky, low-slot hurler who could become the 2026 answer to Tyson Miller in the Chicago pen. They were in good position to land him on such a deal, because with all that open space, Snider can reasonably expect that there will be a 40-man spot for him to win if he shows well during spring training. The Cubs can also take on players on a trade partner's 40-man roster, if needed, without needing to shuffle as much or remove players from their own roster the way other teams might.

Generally, though, the Cubs have let the opportunities afforded by keeping a skeleton crew in November and December drift by. They didn't trade for any prospects who needed to be added to overstuffed 40-man rosters last month, or snap up anyone who stood to be non-tendered because of another club's roster crunch. They also, downright stunningly, didn't take anyone in Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft. They're actively choosing to hold open so many roster spots that it's conspicuous, despite having a very limited set of non-roster players with any real upside for 2026.

In other words, the team is setting itself up for a spending spree in free agency—but also leaving themselves no other choice. Though the internal preference of the front office is to add top-flight pitching via trade, rather than via free agency, any deal that would net them the caliber of player they're looking for would have to include one of Matt Shaw, Ballesteros, Caissie, or Alcántara. They've talked to other teams about various deals that would send out Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, or Ben Brown.

By not snatching up players via waiver claims, trades or the Rule 5, Hoyer and company have eschewed chances to chart a more balanced course through the offseason. At this point, the Cubs will almost surely sign at least four more players to big-league deals this winter. That's good news, and so is the underlying reason why they're doing this: they have set high goals for the player types they hope will fill those slots. The team is pursuing above-average starting pitchers, high-leverage reliever candidates, and top-tier bats. They've been active in trade talks regarding MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera, and they've talked to Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. They've extensively scouted Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, and talked to the representatives for all three. They're hunting serious, impactful talent.

The risk, however, is obvious. Those nine open places on the roster speak to the thinness of the organization and the difficulty the team will have in maintaining leverage, should any more of their top targets come off the board before they begin to flesh themselves out. This is a highwire act of a hot stove strategy. Hoyer will be active; there will be headline-grabbing moves. However, the Cubs have cornered themselves a bit, and getting better will be an expensive endeavor because of the more cost-effective opportunities they've chosen not to pursue.

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[Bertz]

I'm not super worried about the farm and org depth.  On the one hand there is a pretty big talent gap around AA.  To use Theo's "waves of talent" metaphor there's currently a wave on the MLB/Iowa border that is fantastic, the wave behind that is sad and pathetic, and then it's a pretty healthy farm again from there. 

You don't love using "sad and pathetic" about any portion of your org, but I think the strength and depth of that Mo/Alcantara cohort should likely mask it.  There's only so many roster spots open on a competitive club and it will take time to fold everyone into the big league roster.  That should hopefully take enough time and allow the lower levels to matriculate up before we feel that talent gap.  On the position player side at least.

What I'm most curious about is what the team can even use 9 (!!!) spots for.  Before yesterday I assumed 5-6 spots on actual named players and then 3-4 spots on hijinks to stockpile some Gavin Hollowell types.  But not adding a live arm in the Rule 5 draft is a weird non-move if you're planning to be so heavy on those roster-fringe moved.  The only things I can think are A) some of this space is already accounted for even if nothing public or official has happened or B) the team thinks that the caliber of arm you can get on a split contract or via waiver wire roulette is materially higher than you can get in the Rule 5.  The latter isn't unreasonable but it is surprising.

[Clark_Addison]

Part of the reason for so many spots is the influx of prospects already. If some of them would have moved slower, they would just now be being added and we would have more older vet types on the roster still. This goes with people saying we have slipped on prospects. But right now we have PCA, Shaw, Busch, Amaya as regulars already and players like Ballesteros, Caissie, Alcantara already having been up with the big league team plus players like Cam Smith that was traded. Not as much on the pitching side but Horton moved pretty fast even with losing most of 2024 due to an injury.

There will be free agent signings that will be on the opening day roster along and a volume of minor league deals for RP's that will need 40 man spots if they make the opening day roster (or when they get called up).  

This is not a negative, most teams are loaded with roster filler types they don't want to cut but have no choice when they add a FA.