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Posted

I kinda like it and kinda hate it.  On the one hand, he's a guy with a year of control and the price tag is seemingly not outrageous, so the risk is relatively low.  He's over two years out from TJS and he's apparently fully recovered from his shoulder injury, plus he seems like a bounceback candidate in 2026 for his contract year.  Alcantara feels like a slight overpay, but not to the point where I'd immediately say no.

On the other hand, shoulder injuries are always messy and he's never pitched more than 150 IP in a season going back to his minors days.  This team is going to have a bunch of guys with checkered injury histories in the rotation over the course of 2026 (Horton, Boyd, Wiggins, Steele) and I feel like adding another to that mix wouldn't be the best idea, especially if the Cubs think he's the TOR guy they need.

Put another way, if you told me the Cubs would walk away from this offseason with Bubic/Cease, Bubic/Imai, or even Bubic/King, I'd do this deal.  If it's instead something like Bubic/Woodruff, I'd be disappointed.

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Posted

It's not a dealbreaker, but a one year deal in the rotation is not great.  Like that's my biggest issue if Shota accepts the qualifying offer.  Not worry about how he'll be in 2026 (I suspect pretty good) but that specter of having to replace three starters next winter.  IMO pay the extra prospect cost to turn from a rental to Ryan/Gore/Cabrera/Alcantara.

There's also some Bubic-specific stuff to consider.  Yet another low velo lefty, the fact that his return to the rotation aas cut short due tona shoulder injury, and the fact that he has that large gap between his ERA and his peripherals (we already have a lot of that going around).

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