Declining Shota Imanaga's Option Will Allow the Cubs to be Better in 2026

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

When the Chicago Cubs signed Shota Imanaga two offseasons ago, the contract they agreed upon was anything but a simple five-year pact. Instead, it was a convoluted mix of team and player options, as both sides would have agency on deciding how long the contract would truly be. Finally, on Nov. 4, both sides declined their respective options, leaving Imanaga a free agent and the team a pitcher short in their rotation. 

If your initial reaction was of shock and confusion, that's fair. It would have been inconceivable a few months ago that the two sides would have gotten to this point and yet, here we are. There's still a chance that the Cubs will extend the qualifying offer to Imanaga and that he will accept, foregoing free agency and sticking around on a one-year, $22 million contract, but as our own Matt Trueblood reported the other day, that would seem unlikely. Ultimately, even though Imanaga was a fresh of breath air as a human, the Cubs making this choice is likely one with reason and with a plan for the future. 

From the Cubs' perspective, the choice was either to pick up the remaining three years and $57 million or to decline their end of this deal (thus allowing Imanaga to choose free agency). Looking at recent free agents who signed contracts in the ballpark of 3/$50m (or so) gives us an idea of what type of a pitcher gets these kinds of contracts; Yusei Kikuchi (3/$63m), Luis Severino (3/$67m), and Seth Lugo (3/$47.5m) are likely our three closest proxies over the last two years. There are a few players, such as Nathan Eovaldi, who got three years as well, but at $75m total, it's probably fair to say his contract is a little too rich compared to the others. 

Looking at these four starters and seeing where Imanaga stacks up gives you a decent picture as to why the Cubs may have chosen to not pick up his option. By highlighting the season each pitcher had prior to signing their contract, we can see that Imanaga performed below most of the others in almost every category (though it is fair to point out that part of the reason why his fWAR is so low compare to others is because of his 2025 injury). His FIP and xFIP are both significantly worse than the other three, which does not bode well for the future. The only other pitcher on this list who had expected data in the 4.00 range was Severino, and part of his contract was likely a premium paid to get him to accept going to play for the Sacramento Athletics.

What this means is that if Imanaga were a free agent alongside those guys, he would probably have gotten less than a 3/$52m deal in the open market. That doesn't exactly mean he's toast, but he probably didn't pitch well enough in 2025 to be a slam-dunk at that price point. You could probably make an argument that with a few mechanical tweaks you could get him closer to the guy he was in 2024, but I'm not sure he's a pitcher who's really any better than a good third option in a contending teams' rotation. 

Another point of emphasis for the Cubs is that to improve from a 92-win team in 2025, it will not be easy. The team appears content with losing Kyle Tucker from right field, but beyond Tucker, there aren't a lot of obvious places to get better. Most of their roster is fairly entrenched with above-average starting players, but a lack of true star power. Even in the rotation, the Cubs have Rookie of the Year finalist Cade Horton, 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele who will all be back in 2026. By allowing Imanaga to leave via free agency, they create an opening that they may be able to fill with someone who offers bigger upside. 

The good news is that the offseason is going to offer a lot of options for the Cubs to take a leap pitching-wise. Free agents such as Dylan Cease (of whom the Cubs have already been linked with), Michael King, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez will all be able to be signed by any team. It's possible that Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai will be posted, and could add another high-ceiling pitcher into the mix. And we can't forget that the trade market will likely see names such as Joe Ryan, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara and MacKenzie Gore pop up from time to time as possibilities. It's not fun to see Imanaga leave, but this will allow the Cubs many opportunities to get better. 

If you're worried about the Cubs spending the amount of money or prospects it would take to acquire one of these names, I do think the Cubs will make at least one splashy move this offseason. Remember, the team dipped into the prospect pool for Kyle Tucker already (which would allow you to think they could be players in the trade market) and they did sign shortstop Dansby Swanson to a $177 million deal a few offseasons ago. With Tucker likely netting the team a compensation pick, they will likely be fine with bidding on even the best players in the pool. In addition, it's pitchers, not hitters, who seem to be aging better (even with the threat of Tommy John always looming). Six pitchers aged 35 or older posted 3+ fWAR seasons in 2025 compared to just two hitters of the same age. The Cubs' may not have the same reservations in signing a pitcher to a long-term contract as they do with hitters.

Beyond just past behavior, the Cubs should have plenty of money to throw around. FanGraphs' Roster Resource currently has the Cubs at a projected Opening Day salary of $148m, and they ended last season with an estimated payroll of $206m. Even if we ignore late free agency attempts last offseason to sign Tanner Scott or Alex Bregman (which showed a willingness to increase that number), they are almost $80m shy of last year's (admittedly poor) total. Add in the context of coming off a 92-win season, Jed Hoyer's previous comments about creating a consistent team who wins 90 games, and the extra playoff revenue, it's likely that the Cubs will spend most of that money. Spending it entirely on one-year deals and the bench is impossible. They could easily sign two starters for $45 million combined and still have $40 million left over to address the bench and bullpen. This money will certainly play into that.

Ultimately, I think the Cubs' decision to not pick up Imanaga's option makes perfect sense. He might not even get a three-year, $57 million contract on the open market, and by allowing his spot to open up, the Cubs will give themselves opportunities to improve on what Imanaga is likely to provide in the future. I'll miss the Mike Imanaga II jokes, his pithy comments, and his umpire stare-downs, but in a business world, this is a business decision. And I think at the end of the day, the Cubs will go into 2026 with a better roster because of it. 

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What do you think of the decision to let Imanaga walk? Do you think this was a good idea, or a bad one? What other pitchers would you like the Cubs to target? Let us know in the comment section below!

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[DK1230]

The only thing that matters is this....difference makers win championships.  Absent true difference makers on this club, absent legitimate difference makers in the minors and absent signing for or trading for difference makers this offseason....these decisions being made are just rearrangements and nothing remotely close to improvements.  

[Victor Reichman]

The writer has a very short memory. Shota was outstanding in 2024 and the first 1/2 of 2025, when he could have made the All Star team. He had a bad 2nd half by giving up the HR ball. But, who says that couldn't be corrected. He was a wonderful, humorous teammate and now we will be paying much more for a starting pitcher. IMO, this was one of the most short sighted moves the Cubs have made. LHP who throw strikes when they want are not an easy commodity to replace. I don't want Valdez for a long term, huge payout deal. He collapsed in the 2nd half as well after an outstanding 1st half.