Shota Imanaga's Fate Was Sealed in the Cubs' Final Game of the Season

Shota Imanaga has proven, invariably, that he is a MLB-caliber starting pitcher over the last two years. Since signing a complicated contract with the Chicago Cubs, the Japanese southpaw has authored a 3.28 ERA in 318.0 innings. He's also got a 4.24 FIP, 3.75 xERA, 1.01 WHIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 4.3% walk rate to show for his efforts. Though he received no accolades for his truncated 2025 performance, Imanaga's rookie campaign was dazzling, as he finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young voting, on top of earning a spot on the Senior Circuit's Midsummer Classic roster.

With that résumé, it's a bit of a wonder that the Cubs chose to decline what was effectively a three-year, $57 million option on Imanaga for the 2026-28 seasons. That passed the baton off to the 32-year-old, who rightfully said no to his $15 million player option for the 2026 season. He is now a free agent, and given how his tenure ended—not to mention the fact that he will surely receive more than the $19 million per year Chicago just declined to give him—it's all but a certainty that Imanaga has thrown his last pitch in a Cubs uniform.

This merry-go-round of decisions feels more disappointing than jarring after the way Imanaga collapsed down the stretch this year, but it's nonetheless a sad turn of events. It felt like a lock in August that the Cubs would pick up the option; by the middle of October, the odds had swayed all the way in the other direction.

In truth, this decision was really made in Game 5 of the NLDS, when the Cubs' braintrust collectively decided to hold Imanaga out of the most important game of the season, despite being on full rest. Matthew Boyd had gotten his revenge on the Milwaukee Brewers a game earlier while facing elimination, but Imanaga had become so untrustworthy by that point that Craig Counsell elected to go with a bullpen game in the sudden-death affair. It sort of worked—the carousel of relievers, including bulk-eater Colin Rea, only allowed three runs—but the Cubs still lost the game, and thus, their season.

And it's hard to blame Counsell for that choice. Imanaga was the ace of the staff heading into the year, but his home run issues had gotten so pronounced by the playoffs that he was simply unplayable. Over his final nine starts of the regular season, Imanaga allowed at least one home run in every appearance, including multi-homer efforts in five of his final six starts. That trend continued into the playoffs, as the lefty surrendered three home runs in just 6 2/3 frames, including two in less than three innings against the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS. The Cubs declined his option today, but they had made their decision on Imanaga weeks ago.

Funnily enough, both parties' decisions regarding this pseudo-mutual option are directly tied to the impending 2027 lockout. The Cubs have been terrified of it since the last CBA was ratified, as can be seen in their curiously-constructed payroll. A majority of their "core" veterans are due to be become free agents after next year, as the franchise is clearly prioritizing payroll flexibility in the future. Removing Imanaga's salary from the books only furthers that directive. This team will not be caught off guard by the new economic parameters of the sport, current contention window be damned.

Imanaga, likewise, surely feels the same pressures. A one-year, $15 million deal hardly approximate his current value regardless, but this could be his best chance to secure a multi-year contract before the new CBA rules potentially harm his earning potential. This was more of a Cubs choice than an Imanaga one, and once they declined the contract, he was all but guaranteed to reciprocate.

Ultimately, this confluence of events leaves the Cubs in a difficult state heading into the offseason, with Justin Steele's recovery and Cade Horton's continued development taking on even more outsized importance in the team's immediate fate. Those two, plus Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd, can form the skeleton of a strong rotation, but after watching the Dodgers march through the postseason with an elite group of starters, the Cubs lack the talent (and depth) to be considered in that echelon.

Of course, the team could close the gap by reinvesting the money it is saving on Imanaga in a free agent like Michael King or Dylan Cease. But, given the lockout fears and how we saw them operate after salary dumping Cody Bellinger last offseason, I wouldn't hold my breath.