What Should Cubs' Pitching Plan Look Like for Game 2 Against Milwaukee Brewers?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

It's been a long stretch of tough outcomes for Shota Imanaga. He's a smart, adaptable and wonderfully human southpaw, but recently, he's running into too many barrels and craning his neck to watch too many balls sail over the outfield wall. He's allowed at least one home run in 10 straight starts, during which his ERA is 4.70 and he's surrendered a total of 16 long balls. The trouble stems, in no small part, from a persistent problem getting his release point up the way he did before his hamstring strain in May.

As good as Imanaga has been since joining the Cubs in January 2024, therefore, he's not inspiring much confidence recently. His excellent control and his pitchability have hung in there, but he just can't get out of the strike zone when he needs to right now, and thus, he's having a hard time mitigating opponents' power. The Brewers aren't one of the league's highest-powered offenses, in terms of hitting home runs, but they pose a real threat to Imanaga and the Cubs heading into Game 2.

That's not to say that there's any doubt about the legitimacy or wisdom of starting Imanaga. I want to take a moment to dispel that notion, because it seems unfortunately prevalent online and in Chicago's sports conversation today. It was not a mistake to give Matthew Boyd the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS, and it's not a mistake to give the ball to Imanaga Monday night. The team needs innings from both of those guys to get through this series, and although Boyd proved an especially bad matchup with the Brewers throughout this season, it made a world of sense to bring him back on three days' rest after throwing just 58 pitches in the Wild Card Series against San Diego. The plan was to use him in an abbreviated start; the Brewers just landed their knockout punch before the Cubs could get into their bob-and-weave.

Delaying starts by Boyd and/or Imanaga until later in the series wouldn't have done anything of value for the Cubs. On the contrary, it made much more sense to slate them for these two games, which each have off days on either side of them. That gives Craig Counsell the luxury of being aggressive with his bullpen behind each of them. He had to be more expansive with the relievers than he would have liked on Saturday, but Aaron Civale and Ben Brown soaked up the majority of the lost-cause work, which gives the skipper plenty of angles to play in Games 2 and 3. 

Let's talk about those angles, and specifically, the plan Counsell and his staff are likely to sketch to get to Out No. 27 Monday night, in a game that is just this side of a must-win. First, let's approximate the lineup the Brewers will deploy. Jackson Chourio tested his hamstring on the workout day Sunday, and it looks like he avoided a serious injury that would take him off the roster for the balance of the series, but he seems unlikely to be on the card for Game 2.

That poses a challenge to Pat Murphy, who relies on Chourio and catcher William Contreras as the right-handed counterweights to his three best left-handed batters in the top half of the batting order—especially when a lefty is on the bump for the opponent. He does have the luxury, though, of sliding Andrew Vaughn up into the heart of the order if needed. Here's a best guess of what Milwaukee will send out to counter Imanaga and whatever else the Cubs have in store.

1. Brice Turang - 2B
2. William Contreras - C
3. Christian Yelich - DH
4. Andrew Vaughn - 1B
5. Sal Frelick - RF
6. Caleb Durbin - 3B
7. Isaac Collins - LF
8. Blake Perkins - CF
9. Joey Ortiz - SS

Expect Imanaga to face that entire order once. The real fun starts right after that. With the off day coming after this one as the series changes venues and Imanaga having struggled so much lately, there's little chance that the team will ask him to work his way through the lineup even a second time. The only dilemma is whether to let him face Turang a second time or not. In August, Turang torched a ball against Imanaga, a ferocious line drive to right field on a fastball that the lefty had aimed for the outer edge but which ended up on the inner third. In general, though, Imanaga has had his number; that hit is Turang's only bit of success in nine plate appearances.

Therefore, for my money, Imanaga should get Turang, too. After that, though, it's Colin Rea time. Counsell should give the ball to Rea for the balance of the Brewers' second trip through the order. The rest of the game's plan depends partially on how those two pitch and what the offense can muster against Aaron Ashby and (almost certainly) Quinn Priester, but here's a best guess at how things might map out:

• Imanaga: 10 batters
• Rea: 8 batters
• Drew Pomeranz: 3 batters (Turang, Contreras, Yelich, third time)
• Daniel Palencia: 7 batters (the bottom six in the lineup, Turang the fourth time)
• Andrew Kittredge: 5 batters (Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Durbin, fourth time)
• Brad Keller: 3 batters (Collins, Perkins, Ortiz, fourth time)
• Caleb Thielbar: Likely, whatever's left of the game (Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, fifth time)

In reality, you hope that the game is more condensed than this. Over the last five years, teams who face exactly 36 batters in road games are exactly .500 (623-623), so if you have to go any further than the end of the fourth trip through the order, you're in trouble. The Cubs would prefer that Palencia and/or Kittredge are so efficient that Keller comes in a few batters sooner, to close out a win in the ninth. You have to plan for something worse than the ideal, though, especially when facing the Brewers and their relentless on-base machine of an offense.

No important Chicago pitcher will be unavailable in this game, as the team tries to steal one at The Ueck before coming home to the Friendly Confines. They have such ample chances to rest the hurlers they do use that they're likely to pull the plug on Imanaga before trouble can truly roil, and then to be aggressive in the way they deploy the rest of the trustworthy arms. It's important to have a map, but as Game 1 (painfully) reminded the Cubs, the Brewers are good at tearing up your map and forcing you to start pressing buttons almost desperately. Chicago's ability to avoid the early haymaker will determine whether they can convert a good gameplan into a much-needed win.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

With all the off days I don't mind an aggressive hook on Shota if he struggles, but in terms of what Plan A should be I really hope they're planning on more than one trip through the order from him.  In both seasons he has been very successful the 2nd time through as he adapts to what he's seen in the first trip, the Brewers lineup does not have a particularly fearsome bat they need to worry about getting a leverage arm in to face in a specific spot, and we've just seen in the wild card there are very real costs borne by repeatedly going to the same leverage relievers.  If he's given up 3 runs the first time through on 2 homers by all means, go get him. But I need to see some real damage being given up before I consider pulling Shota before 15-18 batters faced.

[Arlen]

Seems to me, Craig Counsell doesn't have a good sense of how to handle the playoffs, especially regarding which of his pitchers are hot and which are cold. Look at his career W-L in the postseason.