Cubs have interest in Kotsay

[RynoRules]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

 

Touche, but Kotsay has been generally more consistent. Erstad had the one monster OBP year, but otherwise not great. Kotsay has been more steady the last 5 years.

 

Your comparison, however, is a little too accurate for my comfort.

 

Erstad hasn't had an 800 OPS since 2000. Kotsay has done it 3 times since then. Kotsay is a far superior defensive player, and has outperformed Erstad for several years. Their numbers are similar this year, but historically Kotsay is better after the ASB, while Erstad performs worse. Also, Erstad is also hitting about 40 points higher than his expected BABIP, while Kotsay is about 60 points below his expected BABIP.

 

Its an interesting com[parison, but I think Kotsay has more value in the context of a trade with us b/c he has more of what we need than Erstad does, to wit, a leadoff hitter who is a good OFer.

[Chocolate Milk]

I love your avatar cpatt20. Thought I'd let you know.

 

Seconded!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I love your avatar cpatt20. Thought I'd let you know.

 

Seconded!

 

Heh, thanks. I saw some guy at a Reds board that had it, and thought it was cool.

 

Maybe I should bring back the one with Calvin hitting the bat-eating baseball, so I can crash Banedon's comp. :twisted: ;)

[jjgman21]

 

Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

 

 

I here ya. Kotsay may be doing a little better then again he may be hitting alot of weak groundballs and pop ups and his stats right around what he deserves (I just put together what BABIP is...incidentally, what is Barrett's?).

 

For future reference, you can find BABIP here. A rough way for calculating expected BABIP is LD% +.110.

 

Barrett

 

LD%: .253

Expected BABIP: .363

Actual BABIP: .289

 

Barrett's line if he was hitting his expected BABIP: .347/.385/.542/.927

 

Barrett has been criminally unlucky.

 

That LD% has to be wrong. That's pretty much impossible. I know Barrett has been hitting the ball hard all year, but that's just stupid.

 

The problem probably lies with definitions of line drives. What is a line drive? There must be plenty of different people that score balls in play, and I'm sure not all of them have the exact same definition of a line drive. I'm also sure individuals aren't always consistent, and they'll call the same thing a line drive once and a flyball another time etc.

 

I wish Baseball Info Solutions or whatever they're called published much more raw data.

 

that's why I asked. Barrett has been in a bit of a slump as of late, but if we would have looked at these stats two weeks ago, his expected numbers would have been of the fricken charts. the slump he was in in April was the biggest streak of bad luck I have ever seen. he was hitting liners all over the field right at em, and not striking out at all, yet he was 6 for 60 or something ridiculous like that. it was the kind of streak that could have ruined a players year by making him press, so it sure was good to see him continue with the same approach and get so hot in May and early June.

[studes]

The problem probably lies with definitions of line drives. What is a line drive? There must be plenty of different people that score balls in play, and I'm sure not all of them have the exact same definition of a line drive. I'm also sure individuals aren't always consistent, and they'll call the same thing a line drive once and a flyball another time etc.

 

I wish Baseball Info Solutions or whatever they're called published much more raw data.

 

Just wanted to say that you're better off using our new, current batting charts at the Hardball Times:

 

http://www.thehardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php

 

If you want the raw data from BIS, they would somehow have to be reimbursed for their effort. But they do have a fairly specific definition of line drives. I believe that there may be a "gray area" of 10% between LD and FB, but that's about it.

 

Remember that a line drive isn't necessarily hit hard. It just comes off the bat on a certain trajectory.

[series65cubsfan]

The problem probably lies with definitions of line drives. What is a line drive? There must be plenty of different people that score balls in play, and I'm sure not all of them have the exact same definition of a line drive. I'm also sure individuals aren't always consistent, and they'll call the same thing a line drive once and a flyball another time etc.

 

I wish Baseball Info Solutions or whatever they're called published much more raw data.

 

Just wanted to say that you're better off using our new, current batting charts at the Hardball Times:

 

http://www.thehardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php

 

If you want the raw data from BIS, they would somehow have to be reimbursed for their effort. But they do have a fairly specific definition of line drives. I believe that there may be a "gray area" of 10% between LD and FB, but that's about it.

 

Remember that a line drive isn't necessarily hit hard. It just comes off the bat on a certain trajectory.

 

 

Welcome to the forum!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The problem probably lies with definitions of line drives. What is a line drive? There must be plenty of different people that score balls in play, and I'm sure not all of them have the exact same definition of a line drive. I'm also sure individuals aren't always consistent, and they'll call the same thing a line drive once and a flyball another time etc.

 

I wish Baseball Info Solutions or whatever they're called published much more raw data.

 

Just wanted to say that you're better off using our new, current batting charts at the Hardball Times:

 

http://www.thehardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php

 

If you want the raw data from BIS, they would somehow have to be reimbursed for their effort. But they do have a fairly specific definition of line drives. I believe that there may be a "gray area" of 10% between LD and FB, but that's about it.

 

Remember that a line drive isn't necessarily hit hard. It just comes off the bat on a certain trajectory.

 

Welcome Studes! I really enjoy your work at THT.

[jjgman21]

if you're talking about a short term solution for this year only, why not Lawton instead of Kotsay? he plays the position you're looking to fill (albeit not well) so no centerfield controversy, costs about the same but requires no commitment beyond October, matches Kotsay every bit in OBP, and plays for a team that will probably be looking to dump a salary instead of fleece the highest bidder of prospects.

 

don't want to toot my own horn....ok, I do want to toot my own horn a little bit. wish you could have made it happen back on June 27 when I suggested it, Jim.

[rickrolled]

if you're talking about a short term solution for this year only, why not Lawton instead of Kotsay? he plays the position you're looking to fill (albeit not well) so no centerfield controversy, costs about the same but requires no commitment beyond October, matches Kotsay every bit in OBP, and plays for a team that will probably be looking to dump a salary instead of fleece the highest bidder of prospects.

 

don't want to toot my own horn....ok, I do want to toot my own horn a little bit. wish you could have made it happen back on June 27 when I suggested it, Jim.

 

Heh, way to go.

 

I'm still impressed Hendry didn't have to give up a reliever with decent upside like Wellemeyer or anyone like that for Lawton. Just an average backup OF that we really didn't need.

 

Nice job JH

[rocket]

when i'm mod bumping old threads will be a bannable offense

[Electron Blue]

when i'm mod bumping old threads will be a bannable offense

 

Heh, I remember a while ago (this year) someone bumped the old "Choi for Lee" thread. People absolutely bugged out for a brief moment, thinking we did the trade again :P

 

BTW, how can I nominate Rocket Sauce for mod? :wink:

[Roast]

when i'm mod bumping old threads will be a bannable offense

 

What about those who say adam dunn suck??