Three Starting Pitchers The Cubs Should Target At The Trade Deadline

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

It is not a crisis. The alarm bells aren’t ringing. There is no need for panic.

Yet.

The Cubs' rotation is shockingly full of question marks for a team that is in first place at the break. Cade Horton is nearing his career high in innings. Matthew Boyd hasn’t gone this far in a season since 2019. Ben Brown is in Iowa with an ERA over six. Shota Imanaga can’t do it all, can he?

Compounding this is the uncertainty for the staff in future years. Justin Steele is no sure bet to return at the same level as before his elbow malfunctioned. Matthew Boyd is 35 and has only one year left. In fact, after 2026, Cade Horton is the lone current member of the rotation under team control.

The Cubs are expected to make a move for starting pitching. They have the prospect capital to acquire more than a rental; they will attempt to trade for a piece to close out this competitive window. With that in mind, here are some controllable pitchers from non-contending teams the Cubs should explore. And even better, I’ll explore them and tell Jed what he should do!

Option 1: Sandy Alcantara
Sandy has had a struggle coming back from Tommy John surgery. There are some factors in his favor. He’s still slinging the fastball at 97, but not getting strikeouts. He has never had a high strikeout rate, though. What’s appealing here is the 46% ground ball rate, given the elite nature of the Cubs' infield defense. Sandy would fit right in with his contact-first philosophy.

At $17.3 million next year and a club option for 21, the contract should be affordable. The Cubs have also had success with players who have an elite pitch; Alcantara's is his sinker. If they acquire him, this pitch and the pitch labs' genius could help him regain his past glory.

Jed Hoyer should pursue. A perfect target, not without risk, but nobody is.

Option 2: Luis Severino
As I sat to research Severino, the thought was that a guy with a 95+ heater would add some additional flaming hot spice to the rotation, adding some much-needed strikeout juice. Oops! An 8% strikeout rate and 3rd percentile whiff rate are more Colin Rea than Tarik Skubal (who’s not available). Adding Severino would be more of the same in terms of content.

The flip side is that in his 38.2 innings, not in a minor league bandbox of a home field, he has a 0.93 ERA. That’s not without meaning. Also noteworthy is his two additional years at a relatively high salary of $ 47 million. Given his extensive injury history, he is not a good bet.

Jed: Stay away from this one.

Option 3: Mitch Keller
Corner the market on Kellers! Brad has been successful, so why not another?

Mitch is a long-term safety play. He’s signed to a reasonable deal through 2028, worth around $ 15 million per year, which is cheaper than Jameson Taillon and similarly productive. 

This is not an ace. This is a reliable innings-eater and start-maker. Over the last three seasons, he has had 29, 32, and 31 starts. This season, he’s on track to do the same with 20 starts to date. His XERA is a career low 3.81 (3.48 actual ERA). He’s also been healthy; the last injury was a fatigued shoulder in 2022. 

Keller might not be the fancy ace that wins a playoff series like Madison Bumgarner in 2014, but guys like him are necessary to get there. For innings fillers and out-getters, there are worse than Mitch Keller. 

Jed, go right ahead on this one.

Many expiring pitchers could be acquired to provide help this season at a cheaper cost, both financially and in terms of prospects. If the Cubs are serious about sustainability beyond what seems to be a window that ends in 2026, they need to get some longer-term arms in the system. 

Time for Jed to get in the kitchen. Let’s see if he can cook.

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[Arlen]

I don't have much confidence in Jed Hoyer's decisions of this sort Keep the guys you have including prospects and pick up another foreign pitcher next offseason, Jed. And try not to think of Lou Brock every time you see Cam Smith.