Is Ian Happ a Victim of Circumstance or Stuck in a Mechanical Spiral?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

In an ideal world, Ian Happ represents the ideal leadoff hitter for the 2025 Chicago Cubs. Past iterations of Happ have indicated a player with consistent output, combining upper-tier plate discipline with competence on the basepaths. Even with modest power and limitations in the steals game, the on-base presence alone should be a boon for the bulk of the guys hitting behind him. 

Except, that hasn't been the case this year.

A strong March & April aside, Happ is enduring his worst season since 2021. He's turned in a .312 wOBA, a 102 wRC+, and a slash line that goes .228/.326/.375. His isolated power sits at just .147. And those numbers include a legitimate power surge in June that saw Happ hit nine homers and post a .274 ISO. This, of course, doesn't even include the baserunning situation, where Happ has showcased legitimate regression. The situation has become untenable enough that Craig Counsell removed him from the top spot in the lineup for the three games prior to the All-Star break. 

In a vacuum, though, the numbers aren't particularly terrible. They're passable, really. If you were getting a .330-ish OBP and occasional power, you'd be happy enough with that considering the successes the Cubs have seen up and down the lineup. Instead, there's an issue in that the numbers have actually gotten worse as the season has worn on: 

If it weren't outright concerning, it would read as something actually fascinating. Happ started the year much the same as he generally has in years prior. His approach drove his production and allowed him to land as a technically-above-average bat (by wRC+) in March & April. If prior seasons were any indication, the power would come as the temperature warmed up. That very much did, but only while everything else fell off. Except the approach, that is, as Happ has been able to deploy his keen eye to prop up his numbers into something even remotely serviceable. 

Some of this can just read as the nature of baseball. It ebbs, it flows, and it eventually evens out. At first blush, that could almost be the case, especially when you look at the BABIP column. However, the fact that performance trends don't look terribly favorable for Happ pulling himself out of this anytime soon does register as legitimately worrisome: 

Essentially, all you're getting at this point, in terms of actual production, is derived from the patience. Happ has maintained his ability to tamp down the swing rates and generate walks. But, he also isn't parlaying that patience into anything of value, other than the occasional walk. From here, we confront a couple of different issues in evaluating what the remainder of Happ's 2025 looks like. 

The first is simply examining how much of what we've seen from Happ can be attributed to bad luck versus some other element that is stifling his production. The expected statistics (xBA, xwOBA) do indicate Happ should be better than we've seen. We could also use the BABIP numbers to determine that. However, even those don't serve Happ on their own when you consider individual months. The xBA was at .225 and .235, respectively, in May & June, while the xwOBA checked in at .301 in May. We can broadly state, however, that Happ's production should be better based on the majority of the expected metrics.

Another issue is Happ's nature as a switch hitter. Rather than look for issues in one swing, you're looking for issues in two. Not only that, but you're looking at different pitcher tendencies depending on handedness. It's a much more complex investigation than you might find with a hitter of one-handedness. And that's where things start to get really messy.

Take, for example, Happ's attack angle. Swinging as a lefty, it's been intensely consistent this year: 

His right-handed swing, however, offers something entirely different: 

Happ's making contact at deeply different angles depending on the handedness in which he's operating. At the same time, even the swing path itself is prone to bouts of inconsistency in a different way. Here's Happ's swing path when swinging right-handed: 

That's a marginal change to begin with, but it's also stabilized as the season has worn on. You're getting a consistent swing path from Happ against lefties. Then, you look at the other side of the plate: 

It presents something entirely erratic but also something that makes a certain degree of sense. The inconsistency in the mechanics offers a possible explanation for why you're seeing so much variance in different aspects of Happ's game in '25. Not that there's clear-cut correlation, but the months with a flatter swing (April & June) from the left side of the plate, for example, offered higher barrel rates than the other two. His month of steepest attack angles (June) gave him his highest quality of contact from the right.

Again, we're not necessarily seeing correlation, but it does offer at least some semblance of an explanation as to why Happ's been all over the map from a production standpoint, and neither side of the plate has been immune to it.

There hasn't been a marked enough change in the approach in a given month to lead us to believe anything other than a mechanic issue could be the source of Happ's unfortunate luck. Sure, we could point to his emphasis on swinging at fastballs in June as a reason for his power output there, but that also doesn't offer up explanation for everything else happening underneath the surface across the months of data we've seen to this point. 

It's a soft conclusion to reach without correlation. But, considering just how all over the spectrum the batted ball types and the outcomes have been this year, a mechanical issue is really all we have to go off at this point. Which is why it probably makes sense for Craig Counsell to consider leaving Happ out of the top spot coming out of the break in favor of a more stable option, at least until he's able to regain some consistency on the mechanical side.

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[Big Ran]

I think Happ has just reached  a point in his career where things are going to start declining for him. By not signing Tucker and Happ’s decline at seasons end will only fuel the fire even more for trading Cam Smith.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Big Ran said:

I think Happ has just reached  a point in his career where things are going to start declining for him. By not signing Tucker and Happ’s decline at seasons end will only fuel the fire even more for trading Cam Smith.

Welcome to NSBB!

[PVG]

Happ has significant career splits - about .700(OPS)  vs. LHP and .800 vs. RHP.  
There have always been questions about using Happ as a RH hitter - he's avg at best.
Maybe it would make sense to just have him face RHP - focus on his LH side -  - at least until he can get out of this funk.