The Annual Ian Happ Summer Surge is in Full Swing

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

When you look at the big picture, Ian Happ is metronomically consistent. He's now batting .249/.341/.422 this season, after hitting .243/.341/.441 in 2024 and .248/.360/.431 in 2023. From week to week and month to month, though, we all know how hot and cold Happ runs. In fact, almost every year, he goes through the same routine: a hot spring training, a tough start, and then a surge in production throughout the summer. 

Last year, through the middle of May, Happ batted .219/.333/.301, with just one home run. Thereafter, though, he came alive, and hit .251/.344/.489 the rest of the way. In the team's final 118 games, Happ slammed 27 doubles, one triple, and 24 home runs. Some players simply need several weeks to adapt and adjust at the outset of each season, or don't swing comfortably until the temperatures rise. Happ's worst monthly split, for his career, is in April, when he has a .714 OPS. In June, he has an .817 career mark. We've reached the time of year when he tends to get into a rhythm, and indeed, he's been sensational this month. Nine of his 12 homers have come in June, and he's hitting .230/.327/.563.

Always making adjustments, Happ has improved substantially as a right-handed batter over the last two and a half seasons. Lately, he's moved deeper in the batter's box and opened up his stance from the right side, while also moving closer to the plate. Here's what his stance and stride looked like last June, from each side of the plate.

This is the most familiar form of Happ, to most fans. From the right side, especially, he's always used a fairly closed stance. His swing from that side has some drag to it, too. He's generally crashed forward, trying to run into the ball on time and then slowing his swing down near the contact point to avoid being too early. Here's a look at his swing in Statcast's animated visuals; note the way the instantaneous tracking of his swing speed flattens out at the top.

To fix that, Happ had a more open stance and a shorter stride from the right side by the start of this year. Here's what the stance and stride looked like in March and April.

As the year has progressed, though, he's found even more comfort in setting up and swinging that way. Now, he's moved to a more upright stance and a more conventional stride. He's also scooted all the way to the back of the box and closer to the plate.

Happ's bat speed is also up from the right side this year. As many switch-hitters do, he really seems to be blooming late from the right side. He's taken a long time to accumulate playing time and hone his approach against lefties, but he's now up to 1,034 plate appearances against them in his career, and it's showing. For a switch-hitter, maybe it's fair to expect that peak production against lefties comes later in one's career than it otherwise would. That's what we're witnessing with Happ.

His bat speed is not up as a lefty, but bat speed has never been his game from that side, anyway. His swing has more tilt against righties, and he controls the barrel better in those matchups. He doesn't lose acceleration late in the swing as a lefty, which means that he can be slightly early and still hit the ball hard, in the air.

For several years, now, he's consistently produced, especially after June 1. Happ will need to continue playing well throughout the second half, as the team deals with likely regression from Pete Crow-Armstrong and the incurable inconsistency of Dansby Swanson. Right now, though, he's on a tear, and that's helped the Cubs weather a long, difficult stretch.

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[Development DL]

I have noticed the improved splits . Thank you for the detailed analysis . 
The improvements from the right side , are typical of his overall growth as a player with diverse strengths . 
 

He has painstakingly taken data , used tech and coaching to attack weaknesses. 

He brings a level of consistency, that you documented well . 
 

I pray your family is well .  Thanks for this excellent piece .