Q Scores: Quintin Berry Has 2025 Cubs Making the Most of Great Outfield Defense

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

On Saturday, Daniel Palencia had to close out a 2-0 game for the Cubs, with the top of the Reds order coming up. If even one batter reached base, Elly De La Cruz would come to the plate representing the tying run. Palencia dispatched Matt McLain on a routine fly ball, but TJ Friedl then hit a sinking line drive to left-center field. Against a lot of defenses, that ball is a hit. In fact, Statcast estimates an .850 expected batting average for balls with that combination of exit velocity and launch angle, and if you search for batted balls like it that turned into outs, you'll mostly find balls that happened to be hit right at a fielder.

Instead, of course, we got to see Pete Crow-Armstrong's skills on full display. The Cubs center fielder broke perfectly on the ball, sprinted to his right and dove, scooping the ball neatly, shin-high, as it nosed downward toward the grass. 

The only unfamiliar thing about that, by now, was that Crow-Armstrong even needed to leave his feet. This year, it has become routine to see him make dazzling plays look fairly easy. He's made five catches in nine opportunities rated by Statcast as 5-star efforts, which means that the system estimated a success rate of under 25% on the ball. No other outfielder has made even four such catches, and defending Fielding Bible Award winner for center field (and two-time defending NL Gold Glover, if you're into the inferior fielding laurels) Brenton Doyle is 0-for-11 in his chances to make such catches this year.

Crow-Armstrong has caught multiple sharp liners like that one by Friedl, and stolen extra-base hits from others on longer drives that nonetheless didn't stretch his range all that far. Remarkably, Crow-Armstrong is outperforming every other outfielder in the sport, without having to fling himself belly-first onto many warning tracks or scale walls to bring back home runs. He's looked downright comfortable making plays other outfielders wouldn't even come close to making.

The secret behind his success (other than a unique cocktail of talent and work ethic) is one that extends beyond Crow-Armstrong, to the Cubs' other outfielders, too. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Cubs have saved 5 runs this year based on their outfield positioning, alone. That ranks second in the majors, trailing only the Detroit Tigers. 

For that, Cubs fans can thank Quintin Berry, the man the team hired away from the Brewers last fall to help them tighten up both their baserunning and their outfield defense. Under Berry's stewardship, the team has become as good as anyone at putting their guys where the ball is likely to go—a small advantage rendered huge by the scope of Crow-Armstrong's talent.

That liner from Friedl was hit to an unusual place; Friedl hits more of his catchable flies and liners either deeper to the gap in left-center or to right field.

Thus, the Cubs had to position Kyle Tucker a bit toward the line in right field, and Crow-Armstrong was slightly offset toward right, to cover the gap in right-center. Ian Happ was well off the left-field line, the better to cut off balls hit toward the gap, but he was never going to get to this ball before it landed.

In this case, in other words, there was no way for the Cubs to have wisely set up to make this catch easy. All they could do was line up to make catching it possible—and that's what they did. A similar thing happened on that long drive by Jung Hoo Lee in early May. That ball was hit well, and relatively low, to the gap, and Lee hits such balls to either side. The center fielder has to play him deep, but laterally neutral. Crow-Armstrong did, and thus, a ball that could never have been easy remained playable.

Every team uses extremely detailed scouting reports and a wealth of data to position players, these days. Berry, however, is a big believer in preparing his guys by having them work throughout the spring on making plays by feel and through great communication. That way, as he later installs information-driven positioning plans, they're already accustomed to making small adjustments on the fly, based on weather, the pitcher and pitch selection, situation, and so on. 

You can see why that makes a difference with a player like Crow-Armstrong, who combines excellent jumps with unique athletic ability. Moving his starting point a bit more than other teams might extends his range until he can cover practically any hit a batter can manage. To see the difference, first, compare Crow-Armstrong's array of starting positions (and the corresponding Outs Above Average rating for each):

to those of Doyle, the Rockies' formidable center fielder:

With the privilege of being able to roam the gaps more and worry about depth a bit less (since Wrigley Field is so much more snug a center field than Coors Field has), Crow-Armstrong varies his starting places more than Doyle does. He also varies those positions more than he himself did last year, a testament to Berry's influence. As a result, we can see how his range (the lighter lines here, on this superimposed image comparing the two) exceeds that of Doyle. Crow-Armstrong can get to more stuff, because he starts in slightly more aggressive positions, closer to balls that would be at the edge of either of their ranges.

The implications for this subtle expertise Berry has demonstrated run much deeper than Crow-Armstrong's individual brilliance, though. Great positioning has consistently put Seiya Suzuki closer to balls that strain his shaky capacity as an outfielder this year, resulting in some good plays turned in despite imperfect reads and reactions.

Kyle Tucker is now a markedly below-average runner and can't actively add value with his range in right field, but put him in good positions, and he can make plays on the ball.

Ian Happ hits the sweet spot among the four outfielders, in that his defense has always been more sound than Suzuki's and he's a better athlete than Tucker, but he's not a range-extender like Crow-Armstrong. Good positioning allows him to make the plays that would normally be just beyond his reach, specifically because he's not especially good at the truly dazzling finish. He needs to be able to draw a bead on the ball, and the Cubs have him doing that as regularly as ever. At 30, he might win his fourth straight Gold Glove this year.

Positioning is a subtle science. The line drive right to an outfielder is an easy way to see it in action, but sometimes, that's blind luck. By contrast, sometimes the running or even sliding catch is the sign that a team set their unit perfectly, to cover as wide a spectrum of possible hits by that particular batter as possible. The Cubs are creating ample value in the field just by being well-coached (and responsive to that coaching). Tomorrow, we'll dig into how Berry has also (with help) turned up the dials on their baserunning and the value they get therefrom.

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[Development DL]

This is what I pay for .  Explains a lot . Including how patched together staff is holding up .  At least partly so . 
 

keep these up Mr T  kudos