What We Should Make Of Post-Hype Prospect Chase Strumpf?

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images

On the surface, 2019 might not feel that long ago, but especially for baseball, six years is a very long time. The only two players who appeared on the Cubs' 2019 roster who even remain with the organization are Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. Many of the players have long since retired from baseball entirely, such as Jon Lester. Jonathon Lucroy, Mark Zagunis, and Cole Hamels. You probably forgot that Carlos Gonzalez took 40 at-bats with that team... I know I did. It's important to remember how long ago that is when we remember that the 2019 draft saw the Cubs select an infielder from UCLA named Chase Strumpf 64th overall. 

A trip down memory lane to the summer of 2019 reminds us just what kind of player the Cubs were hoping they had gotten with that selection. At the time of the draft, Strumpf was considered a top-50 prospect on the big board by many outlets. Baseball America ranked him #42 on their board and praised his strikeout-to-walk ratio, bat-to-ball skills, and knowledge of the strike zone in general. They saw him as a "regular second baseman" at the next level. The Cubs looked to have gotten a bit of a steal when they selected their man out of Southern California, if we go by the BA big board.

Six years, however, is a long time, and that scouting report would quickly become outdated. Strumpf hasn't had a particularly smooth go of it since draft day. There have certainly been flashes and some runs of quality play, but his prospect status has faded considerably over that time span. The last time Baseball America had the former Bruin ranked as a top-30 organizational prospect was two years ago, when he was ranked 24th. In this updated report, they continued to praise his strike-zone awareness, but a flaw had appeared; it seems they were off on his bat-to-ball skills, as they now mention his propensity to swing and miss within the zone. This issue would continue to snowball as the infielder saw his K% balloon to 34.5% in Triple-A during his 2024 season. He would hit for power between the swings and the misses, but that tendency was holding him back.

However, this isn't about the past; it's about the present, and this year, Chase Strumpf has seemingly made some progress. The now-27-year-old has had a resurgent year with the I-Cubs, posting a .260/.359/.560 line, which is 32% better than the league average. His K% has dropped to 28.2%, the lowest it's been since Strumpf's time in Tennessee during the 2021 campaign, while maintaining a strong 13.7% walk rate. If there's one thing the initial scouting report got right, it's that the kid takes his walks. 

Digging into the Statcast profile for Strumpf also highlights positives; Strumpf hits the ball extremely hard when he makes contact. His 94th-percentile ranking in both hard-hit% and barrel% highlights the damage he's doing when his bat connects. He's also pulling the baseball well, and his xData suggests that this isn't smoke and mirrors, and that the second-round selection is earning his outcomes.

There is one glaring issue still: his bat-to-ball skills remain an issue, as evidenced by his high whiff rate and low zone-contact rate. It's been two years, but BA's scouting report about his contact ability still rings true. It puts a bit of a damper on the results he's showing; he hits the ball hard, but he just doesn't hit it often enough As a 24-year-old making his Triple-A debut, you could believe he'd progress and learn, but as a 27-year-old repeater (this is his third go at Triple-A) this becomes more concerning and a larger red-flag overall. 

When examining Chase Strumpf's career, his batted ball profile, results, and Statcast page, I can't help but think of a former Cub third baseman from recent memory: Patrick Wisdom, because the parallels between the two seem fairly deep.

Wisdom was the 51st overall pick in the 2012 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. In his final scouting report, Baseball America highlighted Wisdom's plus power but noted his struggles with contact in the zone, specifically against breaking pitches. The third baseman struggled to make contact at the Triple-A level until his age-27 season, when his strikeout rate (in his fourth time through the level) fell to 27.6%. If you think the two stories are similar, this is only the tip of the iceberg.

When Wisdom was given a chance with the Cubs, he had a pretty distinctive profile; he would rank very high in things such as his hard-hit%, his barrel%, and his exit velocities. Where Wisdom would always struggle, as seen in his whiff%, zone-contact%, and this would reflect in strikeout rates that ranged from around 33-40% yearly. Wisdom wasn't a star player, but was a useful second division starter, and was able to compile four total fWAR with a 105 wRC+ in just under 1,500 MLB plate appearances. Below, you can see his 2023 Statcast page; it's quite reminiscent of Strumpf's 2025 Triple-A page, isn't it? Wisdom made a lot of hard contact, didn't chase a ton, but struggled with in-zone contact, and his strikeout rate suffered as a result.

I don't think that Chase Strumpf has much of a path with the Chicago Cubs, much like Patrick Wisdom didn't have a path with either the Cardinals or the Rangers. Both teams had more invested in other prospects whom they valued more than a 27-year-old Patrick Wisdom, and because of that, they eventually let him sign a minor-league contract with the Cubs in 2020. Chase, like Wisdom, was once-upon-a-time, is probably stuck behind multiple prospects right now at both third base and second base who are thought of more highly than he is. The reality is that Matt Shaw, Jonathon Long, and James Triantos are far more likely to get looks above him right now. Nipping on Strumfps' heels are prospects like Cristian Hernandez and Jefferson Rojas, who could be options at his position as well, so this isn't a short-term issue for him within the Cubs organization; he's going to get squeezed out a bit.

Where the future lies for the Cubs' former second-round pick is likely with another organization. He probably doesn't have significant value in a trade, but he could be a sneaky-good, throw-in for a team at the deadline. He won't headline any trade, nor would his inclusion make or break any negotiations, but if I were a team that wasn't particularly flush with MLB talent currently, I'd like to have Strumpf as that "third guy" in a trade with the Cubs. At that point, you wouldn't have to expect much from the infielder, but if you can squeeze some MLB value out of him like the Cubs did with Wisdom, that's better than most throw-ins. And in that vein, I can see Strumpf having an MLB career. It's probably not going to come with this organization, but I think there's a Patrick-Wisdom-like career out there for Chase to grab if the right conditions are met, and that certainly isn't nothing. It's quite commendable for someone who, just a few months ago, looked entirely cooked in that regard.

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What do you think about Chase Strumpf? Do you think he's earned a shot with the Cubs? Do you think it will have to happen with another organization? Let us know in the comment section below!

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