Linking Kyle Tucker's Discipline To His Barrel Rate

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Kyle Tucker hit .100 in spring training. He was 1-for-9 in Tokyo. Remember that?

Elite hitters are elite hitters for a reason. A rough spring or a stumbling out of the gate is rendered somewhat meaningless when you're talking about a 162-game season. And for the Chicago Cubs' star right fielder, that's exactly what we're looking at. 

After starting the domestic slate 1-for-10 in Arizona, Tucker has reached base multiple times in each game since. He recorded three hits on Saturday, four on Monday, and two more on Tuesday. On Wednesday, he was 0-for-3 but walked twice. That five-game stretch featured a four-game home run streak. In total, Tucker's run his slash line up to include a .324 average and .444 on-base percentage, with a 229 wRC+ through the season's first 45 plate appearances. 

He's obviously been quite good. As advertised, you could say. But there are a couple of interlocking factors here that are leading him to excel: plate discipline and barrels. 

Tucker has long been a guy capable of drawing a walk. He drew free passes at a shade over 16 percent last year and is off to a 17.8 percent clip in BB% this year. While his Swing% is up this year (albeit extremely modestly), his chase rate continues to drop: 

Fangraphs has him at the sixth-lowest swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone. Conversely, his in-zone swing percentage is up from 67.7 percent last year to 72.1 thus far in 2025. Even on those rare occasions where he does chase, though, he's not missing. His chase & miss rate is at 33.3%, which would represent the lowest rate of his career. 

To say Tucker is locked in would be underselling it. There's such an intense awareness of the strike zone that appears to exceed even his typically upper-tier approach. That's a positive on its own. Value exists in discipline in a vacuum. But being able to maximize that value through impact isn't a given. Except in Tucker's case, where he's making something out of it:

As a result of his discipline, Tucker's Barrel% has skyrocketed. He's at 25.8 percent thus far, which sits almost double his 12.9 percent mark in 2024. Given his previous marks, it remains to be seen how sustainable it is. But it's worth noting that Aaron Judge carried a (league-leading) 26.9 Brls/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event) through all of '24. 

Given where Tucker landed last year in the barrel game, this increased concentration should continue to bode well: 

The visual itself isn't any kind of surprise. The idea that a hitter is going to generate barrel contact on pitches inside of the zone seems like a fairly obvious concept. But the discipline with which Tucker is proceeding this year should allow him to maintain such a high rate of barrel contact. Especially given his seven percent cut in chase rate, as depicted above. 

Another factor worth noting is in Tucker's bat speed. His average swing speed remains similar to the two previous years for which we have data available (72.7 MPH). But he's also demonstrated a higher rate of fast swings this year. Tucker's at a 33.3 percent clip for fast swing rate, up significantly from 22.8 last year. 

It all speaks to a comfort with which Tucker is currently approaching each plate appearance. Discipline isn't a foreign concept. But there's something about a guy who knows exactly what he's looking for and is able to execute that search within each plate appearance. The Cubs have hung 35 runs on the board over their last three games. Kyle Tucker has been entrenched in the middle of that. 

It's hard to imagine that changes anytime soon. 

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