Call to the Pen: NSBB Writers' Bold Predictions for the 2025 Chicago Cubs

[Matthew Trueblood]

As the season begins in earnest, we asked several North Side Baseball writers to offer up bold (but plausible) predictions. Here's what we came up with.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The 2025 Cubs will be a fascinating team, one way or another. They're at a stage of the competitive cycle wherein desperation is right at the doorstep, but they also have the talent required to win their division—and perhaps even make a deep run into October. Here are some of our writers' specific and supportable (if a bit outlandish) predictions for the season ahead.

@1908_Cubs (Jason Ross): Pete Crow-Armstrong will lead the team in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement.

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PCA will lead the Cubs in fWAR in 2025, over Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Justin Steele, Dansby Swanson… the lot of them. No, I don’t think he’s their best player, and far from the best hitter, but when you combine his premium position (center field) and little in the way of competition for innings with his elite skills of defense and baserunning, he’s got an easy pathway to find three or four wins. Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho both were able to be below-average hitters but above-average players. If Crow-Armstrong gets hot enough (his spring suggests he’s getting more comfortable) and shows just enough plate discipline to post a 95 wRC+, he’s very capable of being the league's best defender and best baserunner to supplement that. There’s electricity in the Cubs center fielder this season, and I believe it will end with the Cubs’ second-year player topping the list in fWAR.

Bryan Jaeger: Crow-Armstrong will lead the National League in stolen bases.

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Last season, Crow-Armstrong stole 27 bases in 30 attempts over 410 plate appearances—all as a rookie. In his two full minor-league seasons, he stole 69 bases in 90 attempts. When he gets on base, he is looking to run, so if he improves his on-base percentage (.286 last season), there will be plenty of steal opportunities. Elly De La Cruz is the biggest threat to Crow-Armstrong leading the NL in steals. Cruz stole 67 bases in 83 attempts, but he had 286 more plate appearances than Crow-Armstrong. Cruz plays every day, which increases the risk of injury. If Cruz misses a significant amount of time, then the Cubs center fielder has a great chance of leading the NL in stolen bases.

Matthew Trueblood: Kevin Alcántara will Wally Pipp Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Look, by now, I'm well-established as the Grinch where Crow-Armstrong is concerned. He's an utterly electrifying player, when he does something good. Few players can be more fun to watch. Too often, though, he's flailing at absolutely everything, and it worries me deeply that he lacks the feel to hit and the raw power that allowed Javier Báez to survive so long with such weak plate discipline. He also plays so recklessly that a major injury feels almost inevitable. I hope I'm wrong about that part, but if Crow-Armstrong does go down for two months after a collision with a wall or a teammate in June, he might never get his job back.

This is, equally, a statement of confidence in Alcántara. He's flashed terrific tools throughout his tenure in the minor leagues, but until this spring, the risk that he would never tap into his power was very real—unavoidable, even. Though he only got limited time with the big-league team in an interrupted Cactus League campaign, Alcántara showed real progress in terms of lifting the ball. He looks poised for the big developmental step that has seemed attainable all along. If he's consolidating his offensive skills just as Crow-Armstrong is sputtering, the team will eventually need to give their less-heralded young outfielder a shot.

Other Predictions:

• @Brandon Glick: Matt Shaw will be sent back to Triple-A Iowa; Gage Workman will take over as the starting third baseman.
• @Seth Stohs:  Cubs starters will rank among the bottom half in most important pitching categories. However, they will have a top-5 bullpen led by Ryan Pressly, who will lead the league in saves.

This cluster of forecasts does a good job of capturing the exceptionally wide range of possible outcomes for the Cubs this year. Drop your own bold predictions in the comments below, and get ready for a major rollercoaster of a season.

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