3 Cubs Things You Are Absolutely Forbidden to Freak Out About—and One That Might Matter

[Matthew Trueblood]

'Fan how you wanna fan' is the worst advice the internet ever gave. Be better than the fan you want to be. After the Cubs were swept in the Tokyo Series, here's how.

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Cubs will come back home from Tokyo without a win, save the one they managed over the Yomiuri Giants in an exhibition game before they took on the Dodgers. By the end of the two-game regular-season series, it was hard not to feel the farce and foolishness of making these games count. In the future, if MLB wants to put on showcase events to continue boosting their footprint in Asia, they should do so by scheduling exhibition games, and find ways other than making the contests part of the season standings to exhort teams to send representative groups and put forth real effort.

In the meantime, though, the Cubs will have to wear an 0-2 in the NL Central table for a week, before re-starting their regular season with four games in Arizona. That's not fun, but nor is it a big deal. In any two games against the Dodgers, a 1-1 record would be a fairly welcome result. In the odd, strained atmosphere that the Tokyo Dome provided and under the bizarre circumstances of having had to ramp up early, going 0-2 is not a real problem.

Still, the hot takes will flow. You, dear reader, are better and smarter than those hot takers, but we all become like those with whom we surround ourselves, and social media is a bad influence. Here's your guide to resisting that influence: three storylines that will swirl around the Cubs for the next eight days that do not matter or deserve your agitated reaction, and one thing that does deserve serious consideration.

Non-Story No. 1: Cam Smith Might Just Make the Astros!
There are layers to this one. Firstly, there's a segment of Cubs Twitter (and, even if you've escaped that cesspool, of Cubs Bluesky and Cubs Facebook and Cubs whatever; is Mastodon still a thing?) who were never fully on board with the Kyle Tucker trade, because the Cubs only have him for one year. Now, two games into the 162 the team is promised with him, Tucker has only managed one hit, and the Cubs have no wins. He's struggled all spring, too.

Meanwhile, the centerpiece of the package the team gave up to land Tucker is on the verge of beginning his first full professional season in the majors—a situation with few modern precedents that will have prospect-huggers especially concerned. Cam Smith was the Cubs' selection with the 14th overall pick in last summer's MLB Draft, and now, he might make the Opening Day roster for the Houston Astros. He could even do so as the right fielder, the very position the Cubs are only ephemerally filling by slotting in Tucker out there. Does this mean the team made a massive error by trading Smith?

No. Obviously. Come on. Get real, here.

Firstly, the fact that Smith could make the Houston roster says far more about the Houston roster than it does about Smith. Their outfield is such a mess that they've also entertained moving Jose Altuve to left field. They're depleted by injuries, and even if they weren't, they would be weak and thin on the positional side. This is not the team that went to seven straight ALCSes anymore. It's a greatly diminished shell of that club, which is the main reason why Smith will make the team.

Secondly, you don't make a trade like this as some huge bet against Smith's future. The benefit of that trade was twofold: acquiring Tucker, and clearing Matt Shaw's path to playing time at third base. There's a good chance that the team is better both for having Tucker in right and for having Shaw instead of Isaac Paredes. To make that move, they had to give up something good, and Smith was that something good.

Few evaluators are higher on Smith than on Shaw, though, and it's important to remember that Smith still only has 165 plate appearances in professional baseball, counting his appearances in the Grapefruit League. He's put up video game numbers this spring, but that's in a tiny sample, against pitchers who (on average) have pitched mostly in High A and Double A—the highest levels he reached in the pros last year, anyway. Smith is going to get exposed by big-league pitching if he makes this team, even if he eventually turns out to be really good. 

Finally—and this is where I invite you to expand your frame of reference beyond baseball, but it's cogent even within that narrow scope—worrying about whether or not other people are living better than you is immature and self-defeating. If you're a Cubs fan, what Cam Smith does is no longer your business. The success or failure of this trade will be determined by the performances of Tucker and Shaw. Do not 'fan how you wanna fan,' because most of the time, 'how you wanna fan' will include indulging in jealousy and attending to things beyond your circle of real control or care. Humans are wired up with all kinds of instincts and impulses that served our evolutionary ancestors well, but do nothing but harm and bring nothing but misery for our present selves. In life, and in baseball: Identify the level of rationalism and behavior toward which your instincts are pushing you, and then aim higher. In this case, that means not glowering jealously at Smith's career, no matter what.

Feel free to lament the Cubs not signing Alex Bregman. The Cubs are lamenting not signing Bregman, whom they felt they had a good chance to land in free agency. Feel free to feel anxious about whether the Cubs will extend Tucker. They should, but I continue to think there's only about a 1-in-8 chance that they will. Lamenting trading Smith on the basis that he's on the fast track to the majors, however, is knuckleheaded nonsense.

Non-Story No. 2: Justin Steele Not Looking Sharp in His First Outing
Look, the Dodgers are a tough matchup for any starting pitcher—the more so if said hurler missed a start during spring training due to an illness, got battered on a day when the wind was howling out in Arizona just before leaving for Japan, and is pitching a regular-season game at a moment when they'd ordinarily be in the early or middle stages of building up in preseason play.

If you want to take a critical tack on this one, the right way to do it is to wonder whether Steele should have started in this series at all. Jameson Taillon or Matthew Boyd might have been better candidates to pitch the front portion of the second game; they looked to be more built-up and ready for this. It seems to have been important to Steele to be part of this, though, and it was just one game. Despite his poor results and his shaky spring, don't spend your time wringing your hands with worry over Steele. He'll be fine.

Non-Story No. 3: The Unproductive Starts for the Team's Top Sluggers
Hopefully, the crack of the bat and the thwap of the ball against the wall on Tucker's late double Wednesday were enough to shake you from real concern about his tough couple of games, and even from your worries about his spring training stats. Undeniably, Tucker has been a little bit off—a little bit under the ball. That he's so consistently hit fly balls during this prolonged period of February and March struggle is a subtle but excellent sign, because it reinforces what we already know about Tucker: that he's an extreme air-ball hitter with an unusually good feel for contact, among such hitters.

When most guys who hit for power go into a slump, strikeouts pile up. Tucker has put it in play. He's just popped the ball up too often, and occasionally, he's even gotten slightly underneath otherwise well-hit balls. He did that again in Japan. On Tuesday, he had a lineout that left his bat at over 95 miles per hour. Wednesday, he had flyouts at 99 mph and 97.3, just slightly missing them. Then, of course, came the laced opposite-field double at 104 mph.

Tucker's zeroing in. He's going to hit, not just for average, but for the power the Cubs were missing during this short two-game stint. His quality of contact is just fine; he'll square the ball up a bit better when the season resumes.

Seiya Suzuki's process was not nearly as good as Tucker's, but you should be even less worried about him. He was plainly pressing—expanding his zone in ways that we never see from him, in an effort to make something happen in his homecoming series. He'll be frustrated by having missed his chance for that cathartic moment, but after a couple more Cactus League games, he'll hit the ground running again in Arizona. He's a very, very good hitter, who just let outside pressure in under unique conditions.

The One Thing You're Allowed to Worry About
It's becoming an old saw of mine, while both I and he are still young, but so be it: Pete Crow-Armstrong simply can not swing this much. It's untenable, and if you're among the many believers that he's going to make big strides at the plate this year, you have to explain to me why you think his plate discipline will improve before you'll get me on board.

Crow-Armstrong swung at 57.1% of the pitches he saw in the minors in 2022. That number was 52.8% in 2023 and 60.1% in 2024. In the big leagues, he swung at 53.4% of everything he saw in 2023 and 59.1% of it in 2024. He's swung at 53.5% of all pitches in the Cactus League this year and he went to Japan swinging more than ever.

There are two types of hitters who can succeed with an approach that aggressive:

1. Ones who blend plus or better power with plus or better feel for contact; and
2. I lied to you, on purpose, as a trap. There's no second kind of hitter who can be good while swinging as much as this dude does.

Right now, Crow-Armstrong doesn't have plus power, and he doesn't have plus feel for contact, so he's 0-for-2 on being the kind of unicorn who can sustain success as a regular while swinging indiscriminately. He could eventually be a plus power guy. I don't think he has any realistic chance to be a plus contact guy. His best chance to be a good hitter, overall, is to stop swinging so damned much—but the stark reality that he has come into this season utterly unreformed should worry his boosters profoundly.

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All the Cubs really need at this moment is rest. They should fly home and get back onto their regular clocks and routines. Hopefully, no one the team is serious about as a contributor this year will even appear in their next Cactus League game, coming up fast on Friday afternoon. Don't let these two losses (or goings-on in Florida, at least on the baseball front) intrude too much on your thoughts between now and then. Unless you're Pete Crow-Armstrong. Pete, if you're reading this, please try to resist the temptation to swing at it.

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[Development DL]

As we celebrate the birth today of a daughter we lost , I realize reading this piece , I realize the source of our sometimes differing world views , while sharing in a common grief . 
 

I find you an author who first follows the numbers .  Life can and does miraculously leap outside them .  Forgiveness , the right to put aside ( literally ) , the hurt done to us , is an example. 

I think even within your chosen style ( I like following data , while leaving open the opportunity for change ) , you provide some informative context . 
 

PCA has a style much more reminiscent of a  Jackie Robinson than a Brandon Nimmo . That style drove me to want to be an NFL WR when I was in HS .  Flamboyant, joyous , Confidence . 
 

But your swing percentage analysis , correctly indicates , what could be , a large offensive inhibitor, if not changed . 
You are a good check on the lens I fan with . 
 

Hope can and does renew , in life , as well as this “ MVP machine “ era of PD .  In my families 40 plus years at a high level of athletics and academics , data has served us well in this context . 

I enjoy and benefit from your written endeavors .  I feel as if some layers were peeled back today .  
 

You have a nice gift   I pray we both see life a little more in the margins . 
 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2025 by Development DL

[Matthew Trueblood]

11 hours ago, Development DL said:

As we celebrate the birth today of a daughter we lost , I realize reading this piece , I realize the source of our sometimes differing world views , while sharing in a common grief . 
 

I find you an author who first follows the numbers .  Life can and does miraculously leap outside them .  Forgiveness , the right to put aside ( literally ) , the hurt done to us , is an example. 

I think even within your chosen style ( I like following data , while leaving open the opportunity for change ) , you provide some informative context . 
 

PCA has a style much more reminiscent of a  Jackie Robinson than a Brandon Nimmo . That style drove me to want to be an NFL WR when I was in HS .  Flamboyant, joyous , Confidence . 
 

But your swing percentage analysis , correctly indicates , what could be , a large offensive inhibitor, if not changed . 
You are a good check on the lens I fan with . 
 

Hope can and does renew , in life , as well as this “ MVP machine “ era of PD .  In my families 40 plus years at a high level of athletics and academics , data has served us well in this context . 

I enjoy and benefit from your written endeavors .  I feel as if some layers were peeled back today .  
 

You have a nice gift   I pray we both see life a little more in the margins . 
 

 

 

Much love, DDL. Mar. 28 will make nine years since our eldest son died. It's a pain everyone can imagine but only a few of us are unlucky enough to really know. Thanks for being vulnerable, and willing to process the feelings and the facts side by side. That's what life and baseball are both about.

[Development DL]

Thanks Mathew , very kind of you .  You are a good man , in addition to being a gifted writer . I continue to anticipate your pieces , like I did the sporting news , when I was a boy .