Matt Shaw's First Game(s) and First Month Will Be Tough, but His First Season Could Be Great

[Jason Ross]

While the lineups for the Tokyo series have yet to be announced, it's safe to presume that the Cubs' top prospect will make his MLB debut in Japan and then be included on the Opening Day roster Stateside. What should we expect from the former first-round pick in 2025?

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Entering the offseason, it didn't look like Matt Shaw was poised to open the season with the big-league squad. With quality MLB starters in Isaac Paredes and Nico Hoerner manning the positions at which Shaw is most capable, it looked like the top prospect was going to end up in Iowa as insurance—until the Cubs shook up the roster with the Kyle Tucker trade. Out went entrenched starting third baseman Paredes, which created a Shaw-sized hole in the infield.

With the rest of the offseason yielding only marginal infield alternatives, only an injury could have stopped the former first-round pick from claiming his position in the Opening Day lineup. This week, the Cubs announced Shaw would be making the trip to Japan, so (although another round of the same dilemmas, this time with more players involved and no more roster spots available, awaits when the team gets back to the States) it's officially Matt Shaw season on the North Side.

Since he's clearly going to play at least these two games against the Dodgers, the question will now shift from "Can Shaw actually claim the position right away?" to "What is he going to do in 2025?" The reality is that there are a wide range of possible outcomes for Shaw this season. Many are good, but long periods of struggle are also very much on the table, and plenty of possible permutations land between the two extremes. It would be great if Shaw just showed up and crushed MLB pitching, but I think it's important to remember that such stories are few and far between in the annals of the game. We only have to look at the routes that Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch took to MLB stability to see how it may play out for the team's latest infusion of youth.

Both Crow-Armstrong and Busch debuted in 2023, but struggled in tiny samples. Last year, both ended up with lots of big-league playing time, but each had ups and downs as the year went. The Cubs' speedy center fielder really struggled through his first run, posting a 64 wRC+ through the All-Star break and looking generally overmatched at the plate. Then, through a mechanical change and a better plate approach, a much better player emerged. While he slumped toward the end, that was a fun preview of what could be. Busch, conversely, saw the reverse: a strong start, followed by periods of struggle. By the end of the year, the Cubs' first baseman showed improved contact ability and was much better on defense. 

Both are somewhat cautionary tales about how prospects' rookie seasons will go. Looking league-wide, the most highly-touted prospects have encountered adversity, including Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, and James Wood, so expecting that should be the default position. Shaw will probably see periods like this himself. Just looking at the schedule, Shaw is likely to see some flat-out amazing pitching in his first month as the Cubs will play the Dodgers (seven times), Arizona (7), San Diego (6), Texas (3) and Philadelphia (3) before the calendar turns into May. Those are some of the best pitching staffs on the planet, and it doesn't even take into account that the environment at Wrigley over that span is unlikely to be very hitter-friendly. Add in questions of how well his unique hitting mechanics are going to play at the highest level, and there's a good chance that Shaw's first month will be a series of hard lessons, rather than a stretch of sustained success. 

If this sounds like I'm being a bit of a Debbie Downer, the good news is that I think this is the normal progression for almost any offensive prospect in baseball today. Ultimately, I do think Shaw's game translates well to the highest level. Things like contact rate are great indicators of how a player can expect to handle MLB pitching, and Shaw has made high levels of contact at every stop. He's mashed fastballs, regardless of velocity. He's athletic and should add baserunning value. The ZiPS projection system he's going to be a stone's throw from being as good as Paredes, even as a rookie. 

While I think the first 45 days or so for Shaw may be rough, I also think we will see him turn the corner around May 12. That marks the end of the Cubs' incredibly tough first portion of the season, and should coincide with warmer temps at home. The Cubs may not play a single team with a winning record between May 12 and Jun. 5, as they will play Miami, Colorado, Cincinnati, and the Chicago White Sox over that span. It wouldn't be surprising to see Shaw go on a mini-heater then, consolidating his early learning and gaining confidence along the way. 

Already, Shaw has shown a penchant for working through new levels, even as he's made approach changes. Last season saw him struggle early in Tennessee, fighting to find his power after he worked on making better swing choices. Nonetheless, he was able to finish with a wRC+ at Double A north of 140, and at the end of the year, the Southern League gave him their MVP award. The righty then struggled initially in Iowa, only to once again finish his time with a wRC+ over 140. He's capable of taking in new information, processing it, and learning from it. You want to see that.

What does this all mean? Have some patience. There will be days on which the kid is going to look bad at the plate. He's going to get fooled by some nasty stuff; he's going to expand the zone; and he's going to make mistakes. When he does, don't despair for him. It would have been easy for the Cubs to give up on Crow-Armstrong in mid-July last year and send him back to Iowa, but their patience paid off. The Cubs, as an organization, have shown an improving ability to transition young talent into becoming MLB players. Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Justin Steele, Nico Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong, and Busch all count as success stories.

By the end of the year, I feel pretty confident that the rookie is going to make some positive noise for the Cubs. Does that mean he's going to hit 20 bombs, carry a 115 wRC+ and win Rookie of the Year? Could be. But it could also be a situation in which the overall line is mediocre, sporting a wRC+ that starts with a nine and an OBP that is closer to .300 than .330. Yet, under the hood, improvement will keep going apace. By October, Shaw has a chance to be a key cog and a consistent performer. At that time of year, as they say, there are no rookies.

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Are you excited for Matt Shaw's 2025 debut? What are your predictions for his rookie year? Do you think he will win the Rookie of the Year? Let us know in the comment section below!

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