Chicago Cubs 2025 Position Analysis: Third Base

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The Cubs are betting big on their top prospect to handle third base with aplomb in 2025. Do they have any safety valves in case that bet goes sideways?

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Leading up to and well into the 2024 season, I spilled a lot of ink parsing through the Chicago Cubs’ situation at the hot corner. While a fan of the idea of giving Christopher Morel extended ride at the spot given his offensive profile, that experiment quickly wore itself out. The glove was bad. The arm, despite its impressive strength, was erratic. While the Cubs were able to stomach such eccentricity within someone like Javier Báez, the defensive upside that their former middle infielder possessed was nowhere to be found. 

Worse yet, Nick Madrigal’s impressive defensive debut from 2023 didn’t carry over to the new year (in those rare moments he was healthy). In total, the team rotated six different players for more than two games at the position. David Bote was average defensively; Miles Mastrobuoni was slightly above. The team acquired Isaac Paredes in exchange for Morel, aiming to get a little more stability on defense while still maintaining some quality on the other side of the ball. 

We know how that turned out. His offensive profile wasn’t super suited for Wrigley Field and the Cubs were able to flip him as part of the package for Kyle Tucker. Of course, that leaves the Cubs in a familiar position of uncertainty regarding an outfield corner. 

CUBS THIRD BASEMEN AT A GLANCE

Starter: Matt Shaw
Backup: Jon Berti
Depth: Gage Workman, Justin Turner
Prospects: Pedro Ramirez

Cubs fWAR Ranking Last Year: 26th (0.0)
Cubs fWAR Projection This Year: 2.9

THE GOOD

The trade of Paredes and the failed pursuit of Alex Bregman leaves a spot open for Matt Shaw. 

Shaw represents one of the top offensive prospects in the sport, possessing a mix of approach, contact ability, and power that make him an extremely enticing player to watch. That profile also ignores his speed and instincts on the bases. He hit 21 homers and stole 31 bases between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s been prone to an adjustment period, but his skill set has allowed him to minimize that actual timeline and turn in quality production regardless of level. 

While we’re unsure how his defense will translate to being a full-time Major League third baseman — mostly due to his arm being the lowest-graded of his tools — but the opportunity here is a really exciting thought. The Cubs aren’t generally the team with the exciting young player who breaks out in a loud way. At least not since, like, 2015. But Shaw has a clear and legitimate opportunity to be that guy for them in 2025. 

THE BAD

The trade of Paredes and the failed pursuit of Alex Bregman leaves a spot open for Matt Shaw.

There isn’t a safety net here. Even beyond Bregman, a signing of someone like Josh Rojas or Yoán Moncada could have made some sense in order to provide one. And we don’t know to what extent the Cubs pursued such an avenue. Shaw struggling out of the gate isn’t a concern. At each level, the natural adjustment period ran its course and Shaw proved to be adept at handling the additional challenge. But should reaching the top level turn into something more prolonged, it’s unclear as to how the team will handle the position should he need to return to Iowa for a spell. 

The options beyond Shaw are fine defenders, but notably questionable on the offensive side. Rule 5 pick Gage Workman has had a stellar spring but has yet to appear in a regular season game above Double-A. Even if he sticks around, you’re looking at a much lower offensive ceiling than that of the team’s top prospect. Options like Jon Berti or Vidal Bruján or non-roster invite Nicky Lopez can handle the position defensively but have bats that linger around average to (far) below. 

It isn’t an outright concern just yet. We have no reason to think that Shaw won’t be able to hit in the way that he has each time he’s leveled up. But staring down the barrel of uncertainty if things need to go past him would represent a real challenge for this year’s group. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Even with those lingering negative thoughts at the back of one’s mind, the third base position has a chance to be a real exciting element of the 2025 Chicago Cubs. After hearing so much of the vaunted farm system over the last few years, opportunities are finally opening up for us to see the upper-tier prospects in action at the highest level. The Cubs haven’t necessarily been known to be aggressive in promoting, but Matt Shaw has shown enough to say that the gig is his until it isn’t. 

Ultimately, his defense will be immaterial. And while the projections don’t expect him to go off to the tune of Rookie of the Year candidacy, most of them have him falling in the 13-15 homer, 15-20 steal range. That would be enough to be a solid contributor, with the on-base stuff ideally following in the years to come.

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