The Blueprint For A 90-Win Cubs Team In 2025

[Brian Kelder]

There is a narrow path to the Cubs building the elusive, Craig Counsell-endorsed 90-win team. There are certain numbers and benchmarks to be watched for as the season goes forward if the Cubs wish to reach that threshold.

Image courtesy of AP Photo/Nick Wass

30 and 6: This is the number of starts Justin Steele needs to make for the season and in September, respectively. Steele has been a very good pitcher when he takes the mound. Unfortunately, he has not been healthy enough to make more than 30 starts in a season. Compounding this, his Septembers have contributed to the Cubs' lack of playoff berths. In 2022 and 2024, he was injured for all or most of the final month. In 2023, with the Cubs falling one game short of the playoffs, he struggled to the tune of a 4.91 September ERA. Justin Steele needs to be able to maintain his stellar summer production for an entire season for the Cubs to make the leap to 90 wins.

40: Pete Crow-Armstrong's stolen bases need to be plentiful. Getting to this number means that he's certainly been on base over 30% of the time. If he does this, we have a possible All-Star center fielder on our hands.

30 is also the number of home runs someone needs to hit. Kyle Tucker should be a lock for this; Seiya Suzuki or Michael Busch would be the most likely candidates thereafter. Eight of the top ten home run hitting teams made the playoffs in 2024. The Cubs, even when acknowledging the addition of Tucker, really need someone to level up this season in the power department. Keep an eye on the middle of the order to see if a leap can be made.

.776: Dansby Swanson needs to reach this OPS in 2025. With the Cubs behaving like a mid-market team all winter, they absolutely need their biggest investment to not hover around a 100 wRC+. Swanson, as highlighted on Locked On Cubs, simply cannot be a negative offensive asset at the amount of salary he's commanding. Swanson probably won't have post anything above a .330 OBP (his career high was .345 back in 2020), so to do this, his slugging percentage has to rise. His 2024 mark of .390 simply isn't acceptable, no matter how steady he is on defense. If he can replicate his 2022 campaign (32 doubles, 25 home runs), the Cubs' offense may be deep enough to compete with anyone.

25: Someone on the roster needs to take control of the ninth inning and total 25 or more saves. Maybe Ryan Pressly can stave off Father Time for one more season. Perhaps Porter Hodge can continue his momentum from the past two seasons. It doesn't matter who does it. The Cubs need stability like this at the back-end of the bullpen.

0: This would be the number of bench players with a WAR below zero. No more Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, or Nick Madrigal in sight. Justin Turner, Jon Berti, and eventually Kevin Alcantara will be needed at some point. With better injury luck this season, as well as able-bodied replacements to sub in, the Cubs could be talking an extra two or three wins thanks to their improved depth alone.

These five things address all of the shortcomings from last season's 83 win team. A reliable bullpen would flip some of the blown saves to wins. Dansby Swanson being a reliable bat should help add another win or so. The rotation depth is helped here, and bench bats can be utilized more effectively. 

This is the blueprint. This is the way.

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