The Cubs' 5th Starting Pitcher Will Be One of These Nine Hurlers. But Which?

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The 2025 Chicago Cubs have a lot of candidates to break camp as the team’s fifth starter. Who’s the current favorite? Who can seize the spot with a strong spring?

The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation was a huge weak spot in the 2024 season. Despite an encouraging 2023 season, a second decline came fast for Kyle Hendricks just one season later. In 24 starts, he posted a 6.27 ERA. Those 24 starts (and the fistful that went to other hurlers as the team scrambled to solve the problem) were low-hanging fruit for Jed Hoyer to pluck and improve the team in 2025. 

He’s certainly given himself options. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon all return to provide stability at the front of the rotation. All signs point to Matthew Boyd being the fourth starter, with Craig Counsell recently saying that they are “preparing for 32 starts” from him, according to The Athletic—even if that number is obviously a bit optimistic.

This leaves an abundance of candidates (some of whom successfully started games for the Cubs last season) to take that fifth spot. Of course, it might take all of these dudes to get through 162 starts, but we cannot project that. For now, let’s take a look at each one and what they can do to start the season in the rotation.

The Favorites

Javier Assad
He will be the team’s fifth starter because… he has been there and done that with the Cubs. Assad made 29 starts with the Cubs last season and posted a 3.73 ERA. He made 10 starts in 2023 and posted a 3.02 ERA.

What’s the catch? He also posted a 4.64 FIP in 2024 and 4.29 mark in 2023, suggesting that some regression is coming. Personally, I still have no idea what to make of Assad. Is he the type of guy who can consistently beat his FIP by over a run? Or is he a ticking time bomb waiting to explode? Regardless, I think he’s earned the right to keep showing what he can do.

He won’t be the team’s fifth starter because… he’s injured. He came down with an oblique strain early in camp. According to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, he has resumed throwing. The delay is still enough to put his status for Opening Day in doubt.

What to watch for this spring… will he see game action? Is he healthy?

Colin Rea
He will be the team’s fifth starter because… he has to start the season on the big-league roster. Unlike Assad and many of the other pitchers we will be naming later, Rea cannot be optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Unless he’s hurt, Rea will be on the big-league roster, either as a long man in the bullpen or in the rotation. 

He won’t be the team’s fifth starter because… he has the lowest ceiling of any of their options. We know what Rea is. He’ll reliably give you five innings (while allowing two or three runs) just about every time he toes the rubber. There’s value in that. The Cubs certainly would have taken that from Hendricks last season. He’s also 34 and, unlike other options, probably doesn’t have a future with the Cubs past this year. He was signed, specifically, to be a depth piece, while a lot of these other options continue to develop. 

What to watch for this spring… will he start or come out of the bullpen? I am not sure I’d put too much stock into either, but it might give us a clue into what role the team envisions for him off the bat.

The Prospects
Jordan Wicks
He will be the team’s fifth starter because… he gets back to what he does well. Marquee Sports Network’s Andy Martinez reports that Wicks spent the offseason working on his conditioning, rather than his strength. This comes after a season when his velocity was up, but he struggled to remain healthy.

He won’t be the team’s fifth starter because… he still has work to do. Wicks still needs to figure out who he is as a pitcher. Is he going to chase more velocity and strikeouts, like he did last season, or is he going to be a guy who pitches to contact, but limits hard contact?

What to watch for this spring… pitch development beyond the changeup. For more on Wicks, read Brandon Glick’s piece on him from last week. 

Ben Brown
He will be the team’s fifth starter because… he has the highest ceiling. Brown dazzled in eight starts last season, putting up a 3.23 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate. He might have the best raw stuff in the organization, among those with an iota of a chance to start.

He won’t be the team’s fifth starter because… he needs a third pitch. Brown features a fastball that he throws at 96 mph and beyond, and a curveball (or death ball, if you will) that is as devastating as any. Few pitchers can succeed as starters with only two pitches. Can Brown? Can he find a third pitch to mix in? Or is he a shutdown reliever, rather than a starter?

What to watch for this spring… did he spend the offseason developing a third pitch?

The Longshots
Caleb Kilian
Kilian, the only remaining piece from the Kris Bryant trade, has struggled to combine the ability to miss bats with the ability to consistently find the strike zone. If he makes any starts for the Cubs this year, it’s either a bad sign for the team, or a sign that he has made a huge, unexpected stride in his development, both physically and mentally. 

Cody Poteet
Poteet, the return for Cody Bellinger, saw his strikeout rate jump in the minor leagues for the Yankees last season. Can that continue, or is he a guy who will have to pitch to contact? He has two option years remaining, so he likely starts the season in Iowa. His first spring outing did, at least, show an intriguing uptick in velocity.

Cade Horton
Horton, the team’s top pitching prospect, is not starting the season with the big-league team, so stop dreaming. He has one objective this season: stay healthy. If he does so, he'll eventually turn up in Chicago.

Brad Keller and Chris Flexen
There is a non-zero chance one of these guys gets named the fifth starter, even if it be extremely remote. If either particularly impresses in spring training and the Cubs don’t want to risk losing them to another team, they might have to be assigned to the 40-man roster and make the team for Opening Day. Otherwise, they’ll have the right to opt out (at some point; minor-league deals vary in when and how many times a player has that chance) and test free agency. Both have previously found success in their big-league careers, but both are several years removed from it.

That's nine names for one job—or two, if the team uses a six-man rotation. It's wonderful to have that degree of depth, even if in a perfect world, they would have more strength above this group. If the spring doesn't involve significantly more attrition (already, they've seen Assad delayed and Brandon Birdsell sidelined, so don't get too hopeful just yet), they should enter the regular season with ample options to manage the long grind of the 162-game campaign.

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