Make or Break Players For Cubs In 2025: Jordan Wicks

Jordan Wicks has long been a favorite of mine, as he's steadily climbed the minor-league ranks since being picked 21st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft. I was extremely encouraged by his 2023 debut, before things came crashing down last year.

The relatively soft-tossing lefty has a devastating changeup-curveball combination that enabled him to fill in admirably down the stretch (during a playoff push) that first year, and his six-pitch repertoire produced three pitches with an expected batting average below .225: the changeup (.212 xBA), the sinker (.224) and the curveball (.106). In that September cup of coffee, Wicks’s opponents' average exit velocity (88.1 mph), walk rate (7.5%), barrel percentage (6.3%), hard-hit percentage (33%), and groundball rate (50%) all would have been well above average, had he faced enough batters to qualify.

Of course, 2024 was a different story, as Wicks pitched to a 5.48 ERA (5.32 FIP) in 46 innings. He dealt with numerous recurring injuries, and when he was healthy, he spent most of his time at Triple-A trying to correct issues that presented themselves over his first (roughly) 80 major-league frames. Now 25 years old and two years away from his first trip through arbitration, Wicks needs to figure out what kind of pitcher he will be in 2025.

What Went Wrong In 2024?
Mostly, injuries. He had three separate Injured List stints last year: one early in the season for his forearm issues that never totally went away, and two back-to-back oblique injuries throughout the summer and stretch run.

As aforementioned, that severely limited his time on the mound last year, in what was supposed to be a crucial developmental year as he got lots of reps in the big leagues. Instead, he spent most of the campaign learning how to be efficient in his rehab without pushing too hard. Valuable skills for a pitcher, to be sure, but not exactly the kind of lessons the Cubs were hoping the 25-year-old was going to learn.

Beyond that, Wicks simply never found a secondary offering beyond his profile-defining changeup, as outlined brilliantly by Matt Trueblood. He toyed with a few different versions of a slider that he simply didn’t get enough chances to throw to lefties last year, and he’s still trying to find out how to fool opposing right-handed hitters with his sinker-curveball mix. If the plan is for him to stick as a starter going forward — and by all accounts, it is — he has to develop another plus-offering behind his gradually-improving fastball and excellent changeup, lest he turn into another one-pitch-short reliever like Hayden Wesneski.

What Can Go Right In 2025?

While Wicks still hasn’t found that third “trust pitch” in his repertoire, his fastball and changeup are a pretty darn good foundation.

Despite the incessant injury troubles, Wicks actually found an extra half-tick on his fastball in 2024 compared to his initial call-up in 2023. He threw 273 of them to righties last year (109 to lefties), generating a .328 wOBA (.391) and .335 xwOBA (.333). Compare that to 2023, when his fastball surrendered a ridiculous .470 wOBA/.406 xwOBA to righties and more reasonable .232 wOBA/.240 xwOBA to lefties. With a larger sample size, the hope is that his improvements when facing opposite-handed hitters can continue; his success against lefties with the fastball will likely be dependent on his ability to find the right version of his slider.

His changeup needs no introduction. He threw it just 20 times to opposing lefties last year (7.1% of his total offerings to left-handed hitters), but it generated an impossible .000 wOBA. Righties actually made contact against it, but only barely. They had a .268 wOBA/.291 xwOBA and a laughable 42.1% whiff rate against the pitch in 200 attempts in 2024.

The best-case scenario is Wicks finding a slider to throw against lefties and a curveball for righties, and becoming a key member of the rotation. Even if he doesn’t, though, a trip to the bullpen as a long-reliever/opener could make sense as the Cubs only have offseason addition Caleb Thielbar (and maybe Luke Little) in terms of southpaw bullpen options.

How Will This Impact The Cubs in 2025?

The Cubs spent the whole offseason adding depth on top of depth to their starting rotation. While many, including yours truly, clamored for them to add another ace, the team stayed true to their top three of Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon. Instead, they added Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Cody Poteet to a back-end group that already included Javier Assad, Ben Brown, Brandon Birdsell, Caleb Kilian , Cade Horton, and Wicks.

It would be an amazing story if Wicks developed into a surefire No. 4 starter, though that’s probably his ceiling given what we’ve seen from him so far. A world exists where he turns into a Keegan Thompson-esque swingman from the left side, dominating hitters from both sides of the plate with his two-pitch mix. Or, perhaps he’ll linger in Triple-A refining his arsenal, serving as “next man up” depth for whatever five starters Craig Counsell chooses on Opening Day.

The Cubs did a good job this offseason ensuring their 2025 season doesn’t hinge on the development and health of guys like Wicks and Brown. It would just make their outlook a lot rosier — and their hopes of making the playoffs again a lot more likely — if Wicks can rediscover his top prospect form.