BREAKING: Cubs to Sign First Baseman/DH Justin Turner to One-Year Deal

[Matthew Trueblood]

Checking the final absolutely necessary box on their to-do list, the Chicago Cubs snagged a beloved veteran and right-handed hitter to complement their starting, left-handed-hitting first baseman.

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs are finalizing an agreement to sign first baseman and DH Justin Turner, a source confirmed Tuesday morning. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic broke the news.

Turner, 40, will be a valued bench bat and a backup to Michael Busch, the team's primary first baseman. He can also act as a platoon partner for Busch, and a fill-in DH when injuries strike the corner outfield spots and/or Seiya Suzuki heads to the outfield against certain left-handed starters. 

We should be very clear about what this deal isn't. Despite the many years of good work Turner did as the third baseman for the Dodgers, he's no longer capable of handling that position, even on a part-time basis. He's not the new backup third baseman; that job remains Jon Berti's. Rather, Turner (who batted .259/.354/.383 for the Blue Jays and Mariners in 2024) will help the team access better matchups, both to begin games (against southpaw starters) and within them. He suffered a huge loss of bat speed from 2023, when he slugged a robust .455 while calling Fenway Park home, but still has value because of his contact skills and solid swing decisions.

While the risk that Turner will never rediscover his power is profound, he's a well-rounded hitter with a great feel for contact. He's only struck out in 17.6% of his plate appearances since the start of 2023, and he continues to draw walks at an average-plus rate. That could change this year, too, if pitchers perceive the declining degree of danger in his swing, but Turner is a former winner of the Roberto Clemente Award and a smart, highly respected hitter. He'll bring gravitas, a positive attitude, and the wisdom that came with a thoughtful redesign of his swing prior to his late-20s emergence as a star-caliber player at the hot corner, now over a decade ago.

He'll round out the Cubs' positional roster by shielding Busch from some lefties and giving Craig Counsell the luxury of lifting certain hitters to get a matchup edge late in games. In 221 career plate appearances as a pinch-hitter, he has a solid .738 OPS, although it's been a long time since that was a prominent role for him.

Almost no one swung a slower stick than Turner in 2024, but he retains the special capacity for meeting the ball with the fat part of the bat that helped him turn a corner and access unexpected power when he got to the Dodgers in 2014. It's an imperfect translation, because of wind and temperature effects, but this chart of Turner's line drives and fly balls since the start of 2023 overlaid on Wrigley Field shows you how he could fit gorgeously with the Cubs. His power is increasingly wall-scraper stuff, but Wrigley is a good place for the balls he hits to scrape the top and the back side of the wall in left-center, rather than landing right against it on the field of play.

According to Mooney, the deal will be worth $6 million. That leaves the Cubs wiggle room to make a final addition, but Turner is the last piece they felt they truly needed. From here, their pursuits will be purely opportunistic. 

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[ryanrc]

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesnt play much of a factor in a pennant race. but at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen games (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes.  

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games. 

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.