Kyle Tucker is Really Slow. Is That a Problem?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The one lousy part of the Cubs' superstar right fielder's game in 2024 was his baserunning—and not just after he fouled a ball off his shin, breaking it. Is his athleticism declining so fast that the Cubs should worry about it compromising his game in 2025?

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The greatest of several great things about Kyle Tucker, at least until now, is that he's good at so many things—and that he really doesn't have a notable weakness. Tucker, 28, is a tremendous hitter (90.9 runs better than average at bat for his career, according to Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Runs Above Average framework, and 16.2 runs to the good in 2024, alone, despite all that missed time); a fine fielder (1.3 runs above average for his career, although he was below-average prior to a strong 2.3 Deserved Runs Prevented in 2024); and a sneakily terrific baserunner (3.2 runs better than average, according to Deserved Runs on the Bases), with 103 steals and just 14 times caught stealing.

Last season, though, he was merely average on the bases, and although he successfully stole all 11 bases he attempted to take, he slowed to a career-worst 26.0 feet per second in sprint speed, according to Statcast. Nor can we read that as a mere product of the broken bone he suffered when he fouled a ball off his shin in early June, because it's part of a trend that makes plenty of sense—almost every player gets slower with age—but could be trouble:

• 2019: 27.7 feet per second
• 2020: 27.6
• 2021: 27.4
• 2022: 26.7
• 2023: 26.6
• 2024: 26.0

Again, we expect players to get slower after about age 23, in most cases, but this is a dramatic slide. It comes, too, as the league's standard for athleticism in right field only continues to rise. The average MLB right fielder now posts a sprint speed around 27.5 feet per second, so Tucker is demonstrably behind them—not one step behind (that was true by 2022), but two steps slower.

If he hits the way he did in 2024, of course, that doesn't matter. Nor is it impossible, even now, to be a strong defensive corner outfielder without good raw speed. Indeed, his glove has rated very well, and the eye test has tended to match that, even as he's slowed down. Tucker won't be able to go over the wall at Wrigley Field and take away home runs, as he did quite well at the short and shallow wall in his former home in Houston, though. He'll have to guard the deepest right-field corner in baseball, and navigate tough wind and sun conditions. We know for sure that that's still difficult, even on this side of the renovations to Wrigley and the upgrades to things like the lights illuminating the outfield for night games, because we all watched Seiya Suzuki wrestle with the position and get speared into the turnbuckle by it over the last two seasons.

On the bases, it shows up even more undeniably. Tucker still took 11 bases with good instincts and opportunism, and the Cubs' coaching staff is sure to encourage that tendency this season, too. He also did fine when reading the ball was enough to earn an extra 90 feet, because of the defense's alignment and the location of a hit. He uses his eyes and his baseball brain well.

However, a fair bit of baserunning comes down to pure speed, and you either have it, or you don't. There were other times when Tucker read the ball well, but when a faster player would clearly have had a chance to advance, and he pulled up and played it safe, instead.

Plus, when you hit the ball all over the yard with authority (as Tucker does), one of the benefits is often a ball bouncing off or to the wall, with defenders hightailing it in pursuit of a bad bounce or trying to make up ground after you caught them out of position. When that happens, there's very often an extra 90 feet out there to be had as the batter, and Tucker used to be good at claiming them. Used to be.

The above was not an isolated incident, either. There were a couple of doubles on which Tucker pulled up safely at second, but when other hitters could have sought a triple. There were a couple of long singles, to the line or the gap in right field, on which past versions of Tucker might have been safe at second. He was thrown out on one, and stopped at first on others.

Speed is an asset, but Tucker can and should still be great this season without it. It'll be interesting to see if he can recover well from last year's leg issue and get back a bit of the lost pep in his step, and whether that ensures that the Cubs get the best of his defense and baserunning. His offensive production shouldn't even be in question, so this is a nitpick. If and when the team does talk to Tucker about a long-term deal, though, it bears weightier consideration. Even at 26 feet per second, Tucker is a good enough athlete to help in multiple dimensions of the game. If he loses another step or two over the next three years, though, his 30s could be ugly. It's not a major threat to his short-term value, but his long-term projection is a separate question.

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[imb]

 

• 2023: 26.6
• 2024: 26.0

this is exactly why i dont want jed to extend him. he lost half a foot per second from 23 to 24. at this rate, at the end of a 13 year contract, he'll be merely running 20-21 feet per second. unacceptable.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A couple thoughts about this.

 

• Sprint speed only trends one way if you zoom out, but not absolutely.  We could imagine an article written about Happ on this topic 4 years ago.  His sprint speed had fallen from 28.8 to 27.1 over his career, and combined with already moving off the dirt and his uneven offensive output at the time, you could wonder if he was about to become a marginal DH.  Instead his sprint speed bounced back to 27.7, 27.9, 27.7, and 27.9 last year at age 29, the T-2nd fastest of his career.
• Tucker's 2024 is not a very good comparison to his previous baseline.  About a quarter of his plate appearances came after he returned from a leg injury, when clearly the priority would not be about maxing out his running speed at every opportunity.  He DH'd for a week before resuming his spot in RF, which tells me the priority was getting his bat in the lineup for the pennant race moreso than ensuring he was 1000% athletically recovered.   He also missed the three warmest months of the year with that injury, which I'm assuming are probably peak sprint speed league-wide.
• On top of the comparison, the actual value/impact lost from that sprint speed is unclear.  Yes, as you note he did have his worst baserunning season, though again having a quarter of his PT come post-injury clouds the magnitude.  2024 was also an improvement on the previous year defensively by both OAA and UZR(which was a career high).  His range value for UZR in particular was a career best on a rate basis, for as much as we can trust that tidbit.
  
  
  On the whole, I think the bigger speed/athletic related concern for Tucker is less that his sprint speed was X, it's that he had a significant leg injury and we need to see the proof of concept of what he looks like after that point. 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

On the whole, I think the bigger speed/athletic related concern for Tucker is less that his sprint speed was X, it's that he had a significant leg injury and we need to see the proof of concept of what he looks like after that point.

This is a good point.  The Brewers signing Christian Yelich to a mega extension immediately after he had mangled his knee comes to mind.