Ranking 10 Ways Chicago Cubs Can Spend Their Available Money After Not Landing Tanner Scott

[Matthew Trueblood]

Sunday's news was a double whammy for the Cubs, who wanted Tanner Scott as the anchor of their bullpen and had built a portion of their spending plan for the balance of the winter around him. Do they still have good ways to use financial flexibility to get better?

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

It's always important to remember that spending money is not an end unto itself, unless you're trying to get rid of many so people stop asking you hard questions. (Hello, Marlins and A's.) The Cubs won't throw money around just to say they did so, but they're far below the budget number Tom Ricketts gave Jed Hoyer for 2025, and if they get to Opening Day without using the significant amount of money still available to them to improve the club, it will mean that Hoyer has failed miserably.

Luckily, there are still several ways in which the team can leverage their spending power to better position the team to win the NL Central this season. Here are 10 of them, ranked from most to least desirable, so you can understand (at least from my imperfect vantage point) which moves to hope for. Please note, though, that for simplicity's sake, I've taken the relievers discussed yesterday (mostly) out of the equation here.

1. Dylan Cease (and Robert Suarez), Padres RHP(s)
I wrote a good bit about Suarez in my piece yesterday, ranking the best ways the Cubs could pivot and land a relief ace after losing the bidding war on Scott. I also laid out the reasons why a one-stop shopping trip to snare both Cease and Suarez could make sense for the team, weeks ago.

The Padres are in a pickle. Internecine fights over the future of their ownership group, some foreseeable trouble stemming from committing to several huge contracts in a very small market, and an urgent desire to stay in contention have A.J. Preller attempting a very tricky two-step. The Cubs have pieces (Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara, Moises Ballesteros, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and more) who would have strong appeal for San Diego, addressing some of their key needs, and they'd happily take on the roughly $25 million owed to the pair of Cease and Suarez. This move would give the Cubs one of the five best pitching staffs in the National League and set them up as prohibitive division favorites, although they'd have to cough up a bit of long-term value.

2. Brandon Lowe, Rays 2B/1B
The Rays are climate refugees in 2025, and who knows for how long after that. Neither their ownership group nor their municipality seems all that interested in holding onto them, and it will be hard to find excited buyers or viable places to move, if it comes to that. They're already 29th in projected payroll for this season, but they'd like to get even cheaper. Lowe, 30, is owed $10.5 million this year and would make $11.5 million on a club option in 2026. They'd be willing to move him.

While Nico Hoerner convalesces, Lowe could be an everyday second baseman. He'd then slide into more of a rotational role, filling in for Hoerner some days, Dansby Swanson (via Hoerner sliding to shortstop) on others, and Michael Busch on still others, including to picking up the odd assignment at DH. He's a reliable 20-homer bat even in a slightly platoon-protected role, and he accepts his walks. His bat speed is terrific, and it's unlikely to fade in the way that gets dangerous for hitters until well after his team control runs out.

3. Yandy Díaz, Rays 1B/3B
Lowe's teammate would almost be an even better fit, because (unlike Lowe) Díaz has played a good amount of third base in the majors over the years. He's no longer playable there on more than an emergency basis, but he is a lefty-killing right-handed hitter, making him a good platoon partner for Busch and a fine complement to the DH rotation. Days on which the Cubs face tough left-handed starters could find any of Busch, Ian Happ or even Kyle Tucker getting a day off, with Seiya Suzuki going to the outfield if needed and Díaz at either first base or DH. He'd also be a strong hedge against a sophomore slump by Busch, although the Cubs surely hope that Busch's strong rookie campaign was the beginning of something consistently good.

Note the similar overall swing speed and the similar shapes of the distributions for Díaz and Lowe. The Rays very much have a type, and it's one the Cubs could use. These guys generate hard contact (if not always hard contact in the air), putting pressure on the defense and posing a constant threat. Díaz is due $10 million in 2025 and would get another $1 million (paid by the Cubs) if he's dealt; he also has a $12-million option for 2026. It's a high price for the role Díaz would fill, but he'd fill it singularly well.

4. Luis Castillo, Mariners RHP
Some of these potential moves complement one another, rather than competing. Acquiring Castillo (who's owed $68.25 million over the next three years, with a complicated but ultimately team-friendly option for 2028) would mean giving up both a young player or two and Hoerner, so it would make the team more expensive and upgrade the rotation, but at the expense of the lineup. However, such a trade would also pave the way for a trade for (say) Lowe, and while the team would end up $25 million more expensive and down some long-term depth, they would get markedly better on both sides of the runs ledger. That said, the fact that it would almost necessitate a second move slides Castillo down to this placement on the rankings, despite his terrific talent and durability in the middle or front end of rotations over the years.

5. Ryan McMahon, Rockies 3B/2B
Trading for a hitter from Colorado is always a fraught thought. but McMahon, 30, would be a more comfortable acquisition than most such players. He's a plus-plus defender at third base, and above-average at second. He could start the season standing in for Hoerner, then become a roving platoon partner for both Hoerner and Matt Shaw, bringing good defense in each spot. Signed to a long-term deal that guarantees him $44 million over the next three years, McMahon would be a safe, medium-term, medium-value investment.

The risk, of course, lies in his bat. Predicting how any non-elite Rockies hitter will do when removed from both the benefits and the difficulties of playing half their games at elevation is nigh impossible. Yes, their numbers get padded by 81 games in the thin air at Coors Field, but it's also harder to adjust to and hit good stuff when not playing at elevation. To wit, looking only at fastballs with plus or better vertical movement, McMahon had a .408 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) in 2024 at home—where would-be rising fastballs flatten out because there's less air to catch the backspinning seams—but a .280 mark on the road. It's probably unfair to treat either of those numbers as more telling than the other, but the gap between the two illustrates the problem. Betting $44 million and a prospect or two on such an opaque thing is rarely a great idea.

6. Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B
Ok, wait. Wait. Slow down. Regulate your breathing. Yes, I know Arenado is in decline, and yes, I know whatever you sent the Cardinals would be an unwelcome loss, because the player in question would go to the team's archrivals. I also know the very idea sounds preposterous. Here's the thing: it wouldn't be so bad, and it isn't so crazy.

The Cardinals are being transparent and forthright about their desire—even their need—to trade Arenado. It's almost all they even want to do this offseason, which is getting close to its end anyway. Arenado is owed $59 million over the final two years of his long-term deal, but as we all know, no one is taking on all of that. Instead, any deal would involve a minimal return for St. Louis and anywhere from $14 million to $20 million being sent along to defray the costs.

That just leaves the biggest question: Can Arenado still be any good, really? And does he fit with the Cubs? I would argue that he does, although imperfectly. Trading Hoerner for pitching could open second base for Shaw, but another, simpler approach would be to simply have Arenado step in as the regular third baseman and let Shaw start the season at second, in Hoerner's absence. Once Hoerner gets healthy, things get a bit messier, but it's likely that plenty of playing time would still open up somewhere. Arenado has also said he would be willing to play some first base for a contending team, so he can act as a platoon mate for Busch in addition to delivering his signature defensive value at third. After a campaign in which he batted just .275/.321/.394, the key question is whether that was a reversible dip or the latest inflection point in an inexorable and accelerating decline.

7. Alex Bregman, Free Agent 3B
It's not a great sign that we're down at No. 7 before we encounter a free agent who can be acquired for just money, but that's the situation here. Were Bregman open to short-term deals structured like last winter's Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman contracts, as was briefly reported, he'd be higher on this list, but he seems to be focused on longer-term possibilities. That makes him a poor fit, because while he's to be commended for his good swing decisions and feel for contact, he stands right at the edge of the swing speed aging cliff, and he can't afford to lose that bat speed if he's going to generate any meaningful amount of power. On a short-term deal, you joyfully embrace the risks he comes with. On a six-year deal, with Shaw in place as an alternative, it's not necessary.

8. Jack Flaherty, Free Agent RHP
Indisputably, Flaherty brings more upside to a starting rotation than do Javier Assad, Colin Rea or Matthew Boyd. Beyond the concerns about his medicals that a few teams have raised, though, there are questions of performance volatility surrounding Flaherty. When he's going right, his slider misses bats at a tremendous rate and he can rack up strikeouts. When he's diminished (which seems to be often), he can get hit hard.

If I expected those worries to be accurately priced into his eventual deal, I'd have him a few rungs higher on this list. As it is, though, I expect him to sign either a short-term deal worth $20 million per year or a deal similar to Jameson Taillon's four-year, $68-million pact. On neither term would he be a good use of resources for the Cubs, given the (regrettable) constraints placed upon them by ownership. They have other boxes to check, and spending that much on Flaherty would make it too hard to check them.

9. Spencer Turnbull, Free Agent RHP
The price is more likely to be right, but Turnbull's ceiling is lower than Flaherty's, too. He does have a fascinating arsenal, with a cut-ride fastball the Cubs would surely love; two or three breaking balls; and the ability to work to the arm side, all from a low arm slot.

In this case, his ceiling is set not by his skills, but by his very ugly injury history. It's unlikely you get even the 120ish innings the Cubs want to get from Boyd out of Turnbull, which makes him a tough fit for this roster, which already has Boyd, Brown, Cade Horton, and some equally exciting but fragile relievers around whom to work.

10. Nick Pivetta, Free Agent RHP
At this stage, I wouldn't be surprised if Pivetta takes a one-year deal just north of the qualifying offer's value, or a two-year deal with an opt-out, a la Jordan Montgomery. He's fairly durable, with 623 innings pitched since the start of 2021, and his strikeout rate over that span (26.9%) is also impressive. He just gets hit hard all the time, though, and that's sadly unsurprising. He's a high-slot righty with a dead-zone fastball; those guys give up lots of power.

I'd still rank Pivetta ahead of Flaherty or Turnbull, in some other universes, but he would cost the Cubs draft capital, too, because he received a qualifying offer in November. Since those guys wouldn't, they get a slight edge. The need in the rotation just isn't pronounced enough to put any of them especially high on this list.

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There are even more options than these, but the Cubs need to figure out a good means of turning money into on-field value, and soon. The final month of the offseason is upon us, and the Chicago roster is incomplete. They need to change that soon.

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