You Can All Calm Down Now: Chicago Cubs Sign Kyle Tucker to One-Year Deal Worth $16.5 Million

[Matthew Trueblood]

Not to be that guy, but I was told they'd ruined their relationship with their new, much-beloved superstar forever.

Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

This, like the non-news that preceded it, means almost nothing. By and large, we should not care whether players make $16 million or $17 million, so we certainly need not care that the Cubs and Kyle Tucker agreed to a deal Thursday to pay him $16.5 million for 2025. That deal does obviate the need for an arbitration hearing to settle the $2.5-million gap that had existed between the two sides' submitted figures of $15 million and $17.5 million, though, and thus, the hand-wringing that went on last week when no deal was struck immediately can come to its overdue end.

(Also: Hey, Jesse Rogers. We see you. Don't think we don't see you. You were hoping to catch as many people getting excited with the first handful of words of that tweet as you could, and that's fine. It's all in the game. But we see you.)

There was just never anything to the idea that not reaching an immediate accord somehow poisoned whatever chances the Cubs had to extend Tucker, and now we can put those needless fears to bed. That doesn't mean an extension is imminent; the chances of that remain nonzero but small. This deal avoids any tension that might have emanated from an actual hearing, but no actual hearing was ever likely. The team was unlikely to sign him to an extension before, and they're unlikely to sign him to an extension now. That is not to be confused with saying that the chances would have gone to zero if a hearing had taken place, or that they're essentially zero now. They're just small.

This is an area of estimating probability where we humans do poorly. When we try to predict whether an event will take place and we feel it's unlikely, we tend to crowd our imagined probability down toward zero, even if the real probability is (say) 12 percent. On the other hand, when we're trying to estimate the likelihood of events that we understand to be improbable but badly want to see happen, we tend to push the number higher, sometimes subconsciously.

This, to me, is where so many fans fell into a trap last week. They understand that Tucker probably won't sign a long-term deal without testing free agency, and that the Cubs probably won't shell out the humongous sum that would change that. Therefore, they end up hunting for things that confirm those priors, including the failure to settle before arbitration, and the wired-in pessimism of estimating low probabilities leads them to think that the event they perceive as hurting those chances has actually pulverized them. Working against that, though, is their secret hope that this will be the time things are different, and so they still felt outrage at the organization when they were confronted with what they interpreted (albeit wrongly) as an attack on that bit of wishcasting.

If that all sounds like it could be you, good news: you've survived! The Cubs did initially fail to reach a deal with Tucker, which changed their chances of reaching a long-term deal with him from about 12% to about 12%. But now, they've signed him to a handsome one-year deal with which he should be pleased, raising those odds back to 12%. The bad news, of course, is that 12% is still a small number, and that your head will now go right back to steering that 12% down toward 0, while your heart pushes it toward 25% and makes it more likely to hurt if, in the event, they don't cash in on that 12% chance.

Again, this was never a story. But at least now, we can all agree on that. There's a chance the Cubs will sign Tucker to a long-term deal. It's just a small one. Now, at least, the team has cost certainty on him for this year, and they can turn their attention to building out the rest of the roster—without, of course, blocking the phone numbers of Tucker and his agents.

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[Irrelevant Dude]

Also in the interview with Jed, he basically said there had been no conservation whatsoever regarding an extension, which either means:

A) They are willing to wait and pay market value after the season if things work out well this year

B) They have no intention of ever spending the amount of money it would take to sign Tucker long term

 

Hmm... I wonder which one it could be?

[Development DL]

, I believe they will broach it during the season , after both parties get a feel for situation as is .   I agree with odds  , as stated .  But I think of things go well , FO will approach him .