Here's Why the Cubs Aren't Waiting On Roki Sasaki, Even as They Hope to Land Him

[Matthew Trueblood]

Some high-impact free agents hold up the markets for other players until they sign. For multiple reasons, this isn't one of those cases.

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Although the new signing period for international amateur free agents begins in nine days, we could be as much as a fortnight from the resolution of Roki Sasaki's free agency. The famous 23-year-old Japanese righty is slowly paring down his options and considering further meetings with interested teams. According to the scant reports we have right now, the Cubs are very much still in the running, and because of the limitations on Sasaki's earning power (relative to his market value), there's no single player the team would be happier to land over the balance of this offseason.

Nonetheless, don't be surprised if the Cubs make another move to bolster their starting rotation before Sasaki signs. To be sure, expect them to continue exploring the trade market, and to be engaged on key potential free-agent targets. We've heard them connected, recently, to infielders Josh Rojas (who signed with the White Sox instead) and Hyeseong Kim (who landed with the Dodgers), and more reports have them in the running for Yoán Moncada, the highly talented but injury-wrecked third baseman.

Although Moncada and Alex Bregman really aren't in the same class of potential targets, there might be some truth to the idea that where he lands will hinge on what becomes of Bregman. However, none of the same dynamics apply to Sasaki. The Cubs will not yield in their pursuit of him until he signs, be it with them or elsewhere, but nor will that pursuit in any way slow down their pursuit of help on the infield, in the bullpen, or even at the front end of the starting rotation. In fact, of the half-dozen teams still seriously considering signing Sasaki, only one (the Padres) might see that endeavor remotely influence the pace at which they explore other options.

There's a universal reason for that—one that explains why (for instance) Garrett Crochet and Jesús Luzardo have already been traded and why Corbin Burnes signed over the holidays, signifying the lack of any restraining influence on the market from Sasaki. It's almost obvious, but because many fans are unfamiliar with the rules governing this situation, it's worth making explicit here. It's this: Signing Sasaki doesn't affect the payroll of any of the teams who might sign him, or significantly reduce their need for starting pitching.

Because he's chosen to be posted and to come to the United States at such a young age, Sasaki isn't eligible for a contract at all akin to those signed by other star Japanese imports in recent years, like Shota Imanaga, Seiya Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida, Kodai Senga, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's subject to the spending caps that apply to amateur international free agents, which means not only that he'll make less than $15 million upfront and less than $1 million as a 2025 salary, but that whatever money a team might pay him will come from an allotment that would be spent either way. Small trades could allow a team to acquire more spending power, so they might give up far-off, lottery-ticket prospects for the right to spend an extra million or two, but every team tries to spend all the money the rules allow them to spend from this pool every year, anyway.

In other words, it's incorrect even to say that Sasaki will cost teams around $10 million. In effect, he will cost them nothing, monetarily—not one cent. They would have spent all the money they'll spend on him, anyway. He'll have a huge impact on the overall IFA market, because whichever team signs him will have to renege on several (technically illicit) agreements with teenagers from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and elsewhere, but he hasn't limited the temperature of the hot stove because no one will have to divert any resources to him that would otherwise have gone to their big-league payroll.

Nor is Sasaki going to reduce the need for good starting pitching on whichever team signs him, at least for 2025. Remember, this is a 23-year-old, and unlike (say) Yamamoto, he's not noted for his durability or capacity to work deep in games. In NPB, he's never made more than 20 appearances or reached 130 innings in a season. Any team who signs him, if they have designs on contending this season, needs to plan on operating a six-man starting rotation. They need to bank on about 20 starts and 130 innings from him, and while those starts and innings figure to be very good ones, they won't be enough to make bypassing another strong starter advisable. Some teams in contention for him (the Dodgers, who have already signed Blake Snell and will get Shohei Ohtani back as a pitcher this year; the Red Sox, who have signed Walker Buehler and dealt for Crochet; the Rangers, who already brought back Nathan Eovaldi; the Yankees, who signed Max Fried) have already furnished themselves with five- or six-man staffs that make Sasaki a true luxury. The Cubs are among the contenders for him who still have work to do, and even if they get him, they also need more.

The Cubs-specific reason why you won't find them waiting out his decision before making further moves is somewhat related to each of those broader reasons: they have a ton of money to spend, and won't lose any of that flexibility if they sign Sasaki; and they have too many needs to keep waiting on someone who only partially fills one of them. The team's current projected payroll is around $173 million; they'll add at least $40 million to that. Again, Sasaki's earnings aren't even part of that calculation. If they get him, they'll add $40 million in payroll aside from him—at least as long as they can find a way to spend that much fruitfully. They need to get a few wins better on the position-player side of the ledger, and a few wins better on the pitching side, and they have options—but those options are beginning to dwindle in number.

If the Cubs don't make a major addition before Sasaki signs, it won't be for a lack of effort—and it will be a huge problem, because they'll further lose out on viable alternatives in their quest for improvement. This is not a case where everyone will hold their breath and see what happens with an elite talent before making other plans. Moves will be made over the next two weeks, and the Cubs need to be among the move-makers.

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[Development DL]

This seems to fit with the trade of Bellinger and their multiple team source statements about utilizing monetary avenues. 
Both FO and Manager have articulated a need to deepen pitching , in both starting and reliever genres . 

Your premise of different buckets , goes back to Epstein days .