The Challenge Before Matt Shaw is Now the Cubs', Too

[RandallPnkFloyd]

They've carved a niche for a player they believe in. Now, they have to let him fill it on a permanent basis.

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

There was a point (roughly a week ago) where it looked like the Chicago Cubs might have to rely on multiple prospects to serve as an all-important “X-factor” for 2025. That term, of course, refers to a specific component of the roster that could yield important production despite not being one of the “faces” of the roster. With very few obvious offensive choices on the market, there was a possibility that the team would have to rely on the likes of Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcántara to bolster an offense prone to stretches of ineptitude. 

Within the last week, however, that line of thought has shifted. The addition of Kyle Tucker is massive. It also likely slows down the timelines of each of Caissie and Alcántara. Signing Carson Kelly to join Miguel Amaya behind the dish does the same for Ballesteros. While the offense could stand a bit of further supplementation (as just an abstract note), the team is now in a position where the “X-factor” label now applies to only one of those marquee prospects: Matt Shaw.

The Cubs had eight players appear for at least one inning at third base in 2024. Isaac Paredes is now a member of the Houston Astros (having replaced Christopher Morel when the two were traded for one another). Patrick Wisdom is headed overseas to play in the KBO. David Bote signed a minor-league deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nick Madrigal is a free agent, after being non-tendered. Of those who logged time at the hot corner, only Michael Busch, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Luis Vazquez remain in the organization. Busch is locked into the opposite end of the infield, while neither Mastrobuoni nor Vazquez projects to be more than a utility piece off the bench. 

That's a very long way of saying that this is Shaw’s job to lose. He enters the new campaign as a consensus Top-25-ish prospect, set to fill what now stands as a complete vacancy. Barring a signing of someone like Yoán Moncada or a surprise trade for Alec Bohm, you’re looking at Shaw as the top guy in 2025, with Rule 5 pick Gage Workman and the aforementioned utility options giving him support off the bench. Shaw’s hit-to-all-fields, quality-contact, efficient-speed skillset could make him a boon to an offense that could use a little bit of extra everything.

Nevertheless, it’s a risky venture to install a prospect from Day 1 of a season. You’re hoping adjustments can be made on the fly, to prevent any kind of up-and-down scenario, while also keeping an eye toward optimism that they can be a key contributor. Hence the idea of an “X-factor.”

In Shaw’s case, this presents us with an interesting discussion. On one hand, you’re going to compare him (somewhat naturally) to what was a very strong rookie class last season. Many of those top first-year names had the opportunity to suit up with the big club from the jump, with the risk inherent in the decision largely paying off for both contending clubs and non-contending ones. The other side of this is the runway. You obviously want to give Shaw room to struggle, grow, and learn, without it becoming a detriment to your team. What does that look like, sample size-wise?

Opening Day 2024 featured 23 rostered players who were considered to be among the top prospects in their respective organizations. Ten of those 23 were on a major-league roster for the first time. Mileage varied on those who stuck around, but of the top 10 rookie finishers in fWAR, only Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio made their big-league debuts at the season’s outset. The remainder of the top names in that regard—including such prospects as Colton Cowser, Masyn Winn, and Joey Ortiz—had received at least a cup of coffee in the previous season. 

To compare Shaw to any individual situation from last year, in terms of context, would be imperfect. There is nary a spot in the multiverse where Jackson Chourio (after his pre-debut extension) wasn’t going to be on the Milwaukee roster on Opening Day. The San Diego Padres took a leap on Merrill more out of necessity than anything, given an obscene lack of outfield depth—only for him to absolutely explode as a shortstop-turned-center fielder. Neither represents a parallel situation to that of Shaw beyond prospect pedigree (and even then, it doesn’t entirely work; they were prospects of a slightly higher caliber). 

Ultimately, though, it can be interesting to see that comparison directly within the second part of the above discussion. You have a handful of first-year guys coming off a very successful freshman campaign. What could they teach us about the runway that Shaw could or should get?

Here are six of the top seven rookies from last year in fWAR and their wRC+ by individual month (plate appearances in parenthesis). The only exclusion is the New York Yankees’ Austin Wells, given how different the positional context is for a catcher:

Player	Mar./Apr.	May	June	July	August	Sept.
J. Merrill (SD)	98 (110)	86 (89)	176 (108)	90 (90)	164 (109)	156 (87)
C. Cowser (BAL)	182 (86)	70 (95)	92 (84)	162 (82)	106 (122)	117 (92)
J. Chourio (MIL)	68 (106)	51 (68)	144 (80)	143 (88)	156 (121)	123 (110)
M. Winn (STL)	120 (94)	121 (85)	87 (113)	101 (115)	127 (123)	69 (107)
L. Butler (OAK)	88 (77)	11 (32)	13 (29)	241 (98)	146 (103)	115 (100)
J. Ortiz (MIL)	125 (78)	167 (88)	110 (85)	22 (63)	79 (100)	102 (97)

I’m painting with a very broad brush here, both in terms of using a comprehensive metric and stripping all other context (injury, roster, etc.). But the mixture is interesting. You have a handful of guys who started out hot (Cowser, Winn, Ortiz) and those who stumbled (Chourio, Butler). Merrill was largely fine early, before exploding during the summer months. Regardless of additional factors and when their adjustment transpired, each of these names finished as one of the top rookies in the sport last year. And only Butler was sent down for any extended period (roughly a month from May to June). 

For a fun (and still overly generalized) comparison, here are Shaw’s month-to-month splits (since minor-league splits aren’t available on FanGraphs, I’m just going to roll with OPS, courtesy of Baseball-Reference, for the sake of ease; Shaw was in Double-A from the start through July. Aug. 4 was his last game prior to his promotion to Iowa.): 

Player	April	May	June	July	August	September
Matt Shaw	.810 (75)	.683 (119)	.901 (97)	1.061 (59)	.852 (93)	1.011 (80)

Shaw came out hot in April and needed to adjust in May at a level (Double A) in which he had only 70 plate appearances the year before. The same was true in August. He was solid after the promotion, but took off in September once he’d settled into it. If we’re going to glean anything from Shaw’s OPS throughout the year, it’ll probably feature about the same level of overgeneralization as the names above. It’s a good thing I’m not trying to prove any point other than this: if you’re going to give Shaw a look, he needs the runway.

Whether it’s a matter of a hot start and then an adjustment by opposing pitchers; a slow start with the adjustment needed from his debut; or any other combination of a stretch, if you’re giving him the look, then he should get the full look. Four of the six players above were on playoff teams. The Athletics’ offense was probably more potent than you realized. Only Winn played for a team with poor offensive production across the board. Regardless, each team above was willing to let things play out through various stretches (save Butler’s brief demotion).

Shaw is set to fill a position of need. For that reason alone, he has the opportunity to be an X-factor for this team in the way that each of the above names was. Cowser & Ortiz did it from the jump. Merrill rounded into form as the year went on. Chourio needed a little bit of extra time before the breakout manifested. Each offense, though, had the pieces around them to survive while the adjustments took place.

With Tucker now rostered and the DH spot potentially keeping Seiya Suzuki healthy enough to realize his offensive upside, they should be led by a couple of high-quality bats and a collection of solid (if unspectacular) ones. As such, that same type of infrastructure should be in place to allow Shaw the necessary time to adjust, whenever it comes. And given how long the Cubs rode out Christopher Morel’s brutal defense at third base, we have no reason to think that he won’t be given a long stretch over which to prove his mettle.

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[We Got The Whole 9]

The thing that has always jumped out to me with Shaw is the oppo% and I believe he will have to adjust. KB was an oppo monster in MiLB and almost completely removed it from his game in 2016 and intermittently found success thereafter. He likely found it more difficult to let the pitch travel against big leaguers, but Wrigley's preposterously deep RF and inviting LCF surely had something to do with it. I'm sure teams are gonna challenge the hell out of him to pull fly balls. Javy and Sammy hit a lot of oppo homers but there weren't many that had consistent success doing so. The Cubs are gonna hammer him with the league success of pull/oppo and we will see if his rates normalize a little more in MLB. 

 

The MLB hitter he reminds me of is Matt McClain. He obviously had a lot of success in his one year, so we will see.

[CubinNY]

19 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The thing that has always jumped out to me with Shaw is the oppo% and I believe he will have to adjust. KB was an oppo monster in MiLB and almost completely removed it from his game in 2016 and intermittently found success thereafter. He likely found it more difficult to let the pitch travel against big leaguers, but Wrigley's preposterously deep RF and inviting LCF surely had something to do with it. I'm sure teams are gonna challenge the hell out of him to pull fly balls. Javy and Sammy hit a lot of oppo homers but there weren't many that had consistent success doing so. The Cubs are gonna hammer him with the league success of pull/oppo and we will see if his rates normalize a little more in MLB. 

 

The MLB hitter he reminds me of is Matt McClain. He obviously had a lot of success in his one year, so we will see.

Two things he will need to change if he's getting beat are the high leg kick and swing plane. he reminds me of Nico with more line drive power in his bat the most.