Which Cubs Free-Agent Reliever Target Makes the Most Sense for Them?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The rumor mill has tied three high-leverage relievers to the Cubs as potential free-agent signees this offseason. Which one should the team prioritize as they round out their roster?

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

It's hard to keep a firm hold of all the rumors that have floated around, in a winter in which rumors have been abundant. That's a nice change of pace, after a few years in which the hot stove was so cold and unlit that even scuttlebutt was in short supply, but it's still a bit overwhelming. Better (but more unwieldy) yet, the Cubs are deeply involved—not only in the rumors, but in honest-to-God activity. This winter, they've brought in Kyle Tucker, Eli Morgan and Matt Thaiss via trades; signed Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly as free agents; and made a Rule 5 Draft selection for the first time since 2020. (Remember the Gray Fenter Endeavor?)

More even than that, rumors are still swirling about what the team did next, and it seems clear that some action is imminent. Before Christmas, the Cubs will trade Cody Bellinger (probably to the Yankees; probably in exchange for right-handed pitcher Will Warren), and sometime this week, they might well finish a trade with the Miami Marlins to complete their rotation by acquiring Jesús Luzardo. Nor will they necessarily be done, even after those moves come to fruition (or not). 

The big remaining checklist box for the team, once those pieces find their place, will be adding a power arm at the back end of the bullpen. Right now, that unit is theoretically fine, with Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, and Nate Pearson anchoring a group made deeper not only by the addition of Morgan, but by the likely relegation to relief duty of some other arm in the wake of Boyd and (perhaps) Luzardo joining the rotation. Between theory and praxis lies a dangerous chasm, though, and the Cubs know they need to be better-positioned to hold late leads right from Opening Day in 2025. Cobbling together a strong pen only on the other side of Memorial Day is a recipe for annual disappointment, as demonstrated in 2019, 2023 and 2024.

Thus, we've heard rumors of the Cubs taking interest in a higher caliber of reliever than is their custom. Yes, they signed Héctor Neris in late January to be one of the anchors of the 2024 pen, but that was a case of overpaying an aging hurler in a mere gesture toward real improvement. This time around, the focus is on finding someone at least as good as Hodge—in other words, a new relief ace.

Three names have dominated that discussion, so far. Each has something significant to recommend them, though there's also a reason that each is available at a non-prohibitive price. A close study of the options should help us alight on a best choice in the set.

A.J. Minter, LHP
In this middle-class shopping space, Minter is the top left-handed reliever available. The bad news is, he had an injury-disrupted 2024 season and underwent season-ending hip surgery in mid-August. The good news is this:

Minter has a fastball that sits 95 and touches higher, with plenty of rise and that cut-ride shape the Cubs love so dearly. He pairs it with a cutter that has slider shape but hums in at 90 miles per hour fairly often, and a changeup with good two-plane movement off the heater. He can miss bats with both secondary offerings, and has had slight reverse splits over the last few years. In other words, while he'd be plenty effective against lefties (especially as a lefty at Wrigley Field), he's someone you can also call upon with confidence against many solid right-handed batters.

There's a chance his market will be held up until the other side of the New Year, when he might be ready to demonstrate his good health for interested teams. If the price is right, though, Minter would be a great addition to a relief corps that features just one southpaw (Luke Little, who comes with his own questions about durability) at the moment. MLB Trade Rumors projected him for a two-year, $16-million deal at the start of the offseason.

Kyle Finnegan, RHP
Let's not spend an overlong time on Finnegan today. If you want the details on what makes him an intriguing target, I wrote about it last week. In brief: Finnegan throws very hard, and has experience as a closer. He's tended to give up way too much hard contact, because he has the unfortunate habit of throwing his main non-fastball (a splitter) in the meaty part of the zone, and because he doesn't yet trust an overhauled slider that could become a major weapon for him. If he signs with any team who recognizes the potential in that breaking ball, he could take off, and the Nationals could end up feeling foolish for having non-tendered him to save a little under $8 million.

It's never a bad idea to go year-to-year with a reliever, but Finnegan is one arm who might make sense on a multi-year deal, if he's amenable to one at a decent price. He's probably viewing this as a blessing in disguise, in that he was able to reach free agency a year earlier than he otherwise would have. He's a late bloomer who turned 33 in September. Two years and $16 million, the projection for Minter, is probably his ceiling, and it's worth a look.

Kirby Yates, RHP
Though he's been through an injury ringer and will turn 38 years old next March, Yates is much in demand, because when he's on the mound, he's nasty. He was one of the sport's elite relievers in 2018 and 2019, then got hurt, then managed to come back and become one of the sport's elite relievers again in 2023 and 2024. He walks more batters now than he did then, but he's fanned 33.6% of the batters he's faced since the start of the 2023 season. He gets there with a fastball that only averages 93 miles per hour, too.

The interaction of Yates's arm angle and his fastball shape allows him to miss bats with that heater, despite its pedestrian speed, and he also baffles hitters with a splitter that somehow has precisely the same horizontal movement as the fastball, but far more vertical depth. It doesn't make sense for his splitter to be able to do that, given the low slot, but there he is, doing it. 

Yates would cost roughly as much over one year as Minter or Finnegan would over two. Whereas those guys would be complementary options with only the upside of becoming the team's closer, though, Yates would be the unquestioned one from the moment he signs. As long as they succeed in moving Cody Bellinger, he's the best target. The money he would cost shouldn't stop the team from doing any of the other things they're realistically likely to do, anyway, and he'd be the highest-impact option. The Tucker trade was one signal that the organization is turning away from its obsession with depth and embracing the value of individuals who can transform a segment of the roster. Yates would be another, and a crucial one for the confidence of everyone from fans to the players themselves as a difficult fight for the playoffs looms before them.

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[Bertz]

I'm hoping we can add two relievers.  And if the team trades Bellinger, even if they eat more money than we'd like in the process, that feels pretty doable.  If you ended up with say Yates and Minter, this is probably the bullpen to open the year:

CL - Yates

SU - Hodge, Minter, Pearson

MR - Miller, Morgan, Merryweather

LR - Assad/Wicks

That's a group you can feel good about, with quality reinforcements at Iowa as well.