How Kyle Finnegan Ended Up Being Rightfully Non-Tendered, But Could Still Emerge as a Legit Relief Ace

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Cubs are reportedly interested in the hard-throwing ex-Nationals closer. Based on his profile from 2024, that would be a mistake—but his profile in 2025 doesn't have to look anything like the one from 2024.

Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

My big problem with Kyle Finnegan is this: dude throws his splitter for strikes too much. It's a strange-sounding complaint, when it first hits your ear (or your eyes, here), but it's legitimate. Last season, almost no one in baseball gave up more hard contact than Finnegan did, and the reason was simple: his splitter (a pitch that must dive and invite chases and rack up whiffs to be maximally effective) just hangs in the zone too much. Only three pitchers who threw at least 100 splitters this season had a higher Called Strike Probability on the pitch, on average, and all three of them were at least able to consistently induce grounders with theirs. Finnegan throws a lot of hittable, in-zone splitters, and while the pitch misses a tolerable number of bats per swing, it also gets hit hard when batters guess right—often, with some air under it.

He makes up for this deficiency, principally, with a fastball that sits 97 and touches 99. That pitch can bully hitters and limit hard contact, such that he doesn't give up home runs at a truly calamitous rate. Because the splitter doesn't fool hitters enough or get out of the zone often enough, though, he throws a lot of heat. That limits his upside, because it keeps him to a below-average strikeout rate.

Having (functionally) just two pitches and throwing them in this proportion is a recipe for giving up too much contact to be a closer, which is why Finnegan was non-tendered by the Nationals last month. He doesn't have the elite batted-ball profile or the elite command you'd need to see to expect dominance from a pitcher with subpar punchout percentages, and if a guy can't dominate, he shouldn't be a high-leverage reliever.

Why, then, am I smiling at the idea of the Cubs signing him? I wasn't, as recently as a few hours ago! What's changed?

In short: I looked harder at his slider. Here are Finnegan's pitch movement plots for the last two seasons. 

His splitter command was pretty shaky in 2024, which surely didn't help with the problem of insufficient whiffs. The more important data, though, are the yellow dots on the left here. Those depict Finnegan's slider, which underwent a huge change last season. In 2023, it was basically a cutter, humming in just under 90 miles per hour with some lift but little glove-side movement. This year, he cut four miles per hour off of it and reshaped it into a true gyro slider, with much greater depth.

This pitch is miles better than the former version of itself. Finnegan's slider went from a 95 Stuff+ to a 112 when he made this tweak. His StuffPro and PitchPro numbers on the pitch at Baseball Prospectus (which reclassified the new slider as a sweeper) made a similar leap from 2023 to 2024, almost into elite territory. His breaking ball is a legitimate weapon, now.

He just didn't throw it like he knew that. Finnegan commanded the pitch fine and executed it as or more consistently, relative to his splitter. Yet, he didn't ramp up his usage of the slider. I'm not sure why, and the Cubs should get an answer to that question before they commit to him. If he's open to busting out that pitch about three times as often in 2025, though, he could become one of the best relievers in the game, and the team should be all over him, even on a multi-year deal.

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[Transmogrified Tiger]

Good stuff, I've liked Finnegan for a while but as a primary RP addition the HR made me antsy.  It's good to know there's a reasonable tweak that should in theory help cut that down.

[Development DL]

Merry almost Christmas.  This is an early present .  You think like a developmental analyst .   As a former coach, the specificity in terms of a particular set of player data , or transactional characteristics as it relates to undervalued skill sets , is  astounding enough .  But I really sign up for the style of thinking your writing promotes . 
 

The Why .    How do we push the parameters of possibility, to piece the roster puzzle together .  Why this and not this . You have a gift .