If the Cubs Add Another Starting Pitcher, Where Will it Leave Javier Assad and Matthew Boyd?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

The Chicago Cubs signing of Matthew Boyd is not a complicated one to evaluate. Until it is. 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

An offseason that began with aspirations of signing Max Fried quickly dissolved into collectively talking ourselves into a member of the middle tier of starters. Even with a mindset of frugality, though, the signing of Matthew Boyd came as a bit of a surprise, given the minuscule sample in which he’s garnered success in recent years. Nevertheless, he does project to at least raise the floor of the starting five.

The Cubs needed some stability in their rotation. They appear to have gotten it. Now that Boyd is in tow, the projected rotation includes Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and Boyd. With that in mind, it is, again, not complicated. But suppose it becomes more so.

Let’s say the Cubs sign an additional starter. They decide to open the wallet just slightly wider than the current millimeter and pursue an additional free-agent arm. Or, perhaps more enticing, someone like Ben Brown, Cade Horton or Brandon Birdsell latches onto a starting gig. From there, things start to get a little dicey for both the Cubs’ newest addition and one of the holdovers. I am, of course, talking about Boyd and Javier Assad.

Because if the Cubs do pursue an additional arm, it puts them in a situation where you’re looking at those two as the competitors for the fifth slot in the rotation. Not that this would be a bad thing. Too many starters is, after all, a good problem that the Cubs have distanced themselves from in recent years. A breakout from someone like Brown or Birdsell would also serve as a net positive, even at the expense of either your newly-signed starter or last year’s emergent righty. But should either scenario come to fruition, what would be the best course for the Cubs? 

Painting the situation as simply as possible, you’re doing one of two things. Assad or Boyd moving to the bullpen, while the other stays in the starting mix is one. Assad being sent to Iowa (he has two remaining optionable years) is another. In short, though, it’s playing into a “who stays & who goes?” type of quandary—but not nearly as dramatic as it sounds.

Given that the Boyd signing was made for the sake of stability, a choice between the two is likely to come down to something similar. In that sense, Assad likely represents the better option of the two, based on his 2024. The first time through the order, opposing hitters managed an OPS of .801 against Assad. That figure dropped to .732 the second time through before falling still further at .717 the third time. Notably, the slug side of that drops even more rapidly over the course of each round through the order.

It's an imperfect measurement to use, given the smaller sample at the back end and some of Assad’s wavering strikeout and walk trends through multiple trips through the order. At the same time, it’s a stark contrast from even Boyd’s first two. Opposing hitters went for a .558 OPS the first time before launching up to a .740 figure the second time. It does fall back down to below the first time upon a third trip, but he only threw six innings in working a third time, against Assad’s 27. 

Even through the first two trips, though, Assad looks more favorable. His K% fell (22.6 to 16.3), but so did his BB%, if only slightly (9.6 to 8.9). Boyd, meanwhile, had the slight dip on the K% side while doubling his BB% between the first two trips (5.6 to 10.0). The WHIP jumped by almost 0.70, while Assad’s fell by 0.37. At the same time, it wasn’t as if limited turns through the order have stifled Assad as a reliever. He has a 3.18 ERA with identical walk rates and a slight uptick in strikeouts. Boyd’s 21 innings as a reliever feature a 1.71 ERA, but a sharp increase in BB%. 

Obviously, though, the Cubs would not have signed Boyd at all if they thought Assad was better than him, outright. Nor do modern pitcher evaluations, centered as they are on grades of specific offerings and their interplay with one another, favor Assad in that showdown. More than suggesting that Assad would be better than Boyd and that he should get that gig if the two are left in a tussle for the fifth starting job, the above probably just urges us to think of Assad as a candidate to be sent back to Iowa as a starter, rather than retained by the parent club and shifted to the bullpen. That role, instead, should go to Hayden Wesneski.

For what it’s worth, FanGraphs currently projects Assad for more time out of the gate than Boyd, tagging him with 16 percent of the starts on the bump to Boyd’s 14. Baseball Prospectus has them each at 14. Both sides, however, have some relief time for Assad and none for Boyd at present. That makes more sense, since Assad is younger and has been healthier in the past. 

At present, though, this isn’t an issue. Both project to be members of the 2025 Chicago Cubs rotation. I said it wasn’t complicated from the outset and, at this very moment, it remains uncomplicated. But should a breakout occur (positive) or an additional arm find his way into the organization (also positive), things could get a little messy between these two guys in particular. It might not be a prolonged issue, given that you always need more arms than you have, but should this become a dilemma, we can see how it would be most likely to break.

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[Bertz]

I think the answer is pretty clearly that Assad either becomes trade bait or sees his role reduced.  If Jed had signed some $5-8M arm like Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez I think you could see some sort of competition.  But at $14M the team clearly likes Boyd and he is getting a rotation slot and likely a decent amount of leash.

Assad has been a valuable member of the club the last few years and seems like a good dude.  But there have been glaring markers for regression the entire time.  I know Trueblood found some interesting stuff around him using the fat part of the field on fly balls, but that feels very much "here's what happened" vs. "this is a skill."  We should assume Assad's ERA should more or less match his peripherals going forward.  And while in '23 his peripherals said "league average SP" last year they slid and were paired with a drop in velo.  Javier is/was the weakest member of the team slated to get full time play, and Jed presumably replacing him with Boyd is a sign of the aggressiveness we've been begging him to show more of.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think the answer is pretty clearly that Assad either becomes trade bait or sees his role reduced.  If Jed had signed some $5-8M arm like Michael Lorenzen or Martin Perez I think you could see some sort of competition.  But at $14M the team clearly likes Boyd and he is getting a rotation slot and likely a decent amount of leash.

Assad has been a valuable member of the club the last few years and seems like a good dude.  But there have been glaring markers for regression the entire time.  I know Trueblood found some interesting stuff around him using the fat part of the field on fly balls, but that feels very much "here's what happened" vs. "this is a skill."  We should assume Assad's ERA should more or less match his peripherals going forward.  And while in '23 his peripherals said "league average SP" last year they slid and were paired with a drop in velo.  Javier is/was the weakest member of the team slated to get full time play, and Jed presumably replacing him with Boyd is a sign of the aggressiveness we've been begging him to show more of.

I'd generally agree with you if not for the change in his position on the rubber after he came back from injury and saw much less success than before the injury.  I'd be interested in seeing if that truly did have the effect it appeared to before I jumped to too many conclusions.