Resetting Cubs Roster Projection and Offseason Outlook After a Very Busy Week

[Matthew Trueblood]

Thanks to the two minor trades in between two separate roster deadlines, the Cubs have changed a lot in the last week. Let's take a look at where they stand, and what is likely to come next.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

On Friday evening, the Cubs non-tendered Nick Madrigal and Mike Tauchman, bringing the total number of players previously on their 40-man roster jettisoned this week up to six. They agreed to terms with Julian Merryweather, Keegan Thompson, and Matt Thaiss, a pretty reliable indicator that those three were on the verge of being non-tendered as well; the team was willing to keep them only if they could lock in favorable terms.

We don't yet have terms of Thompson's deal, but Merryweather signed for $1.225 million, a bit shy of public projections and a solid $300,000 lower than what he certainly could have ended up getting had the arbitration process played all the way out. Thaiss, who was projected for $1.3 million by MLB Trade Rumors but had just landed with the Cubs because he was designated for assignment by the Angels, understood his real position and agreed to a split contract. This is similar to what the Brewers did with Eric Haase last winter. Like Haase last year, Thaiss will make $1 million (or rather, the prorated share thereof) for whatever time he spends in the big leagues next year, but just a $400,000 rate for whatever time he spends in the minors.

As we discussed when he was acquired Wednesday, he can't be optioned to the minors, but that doesn't mean he couldn't end up there. Last spring, Haase was designated for assignment just before Opening Day by Milwaukee, cleared waivers, and was outrighted to Triple A. He ended up coming up in July, and was a solid contributor for them in the final two months. If the Cubs do acquire a better catcher than Thaiss between now and mid-March, expect them to do the same thing with Thaiss. If not, he's a low-cost stopgap until they believe Moises Ballesteros is ready to handle the defensive duties of catching in the big leagues.

The rest of the team's arbitration-eligible players were tendered contracts, meaning they'll remain under team control but that we don't yet know their salary for certain. The 40-man roster is now at 38, so the team has created a little bit (though probably not enough, yet) of room for external additions. The pruning of the roster is not finished, but the rest of it will be done on an as-needed basis.

Here's a rough roster projection, if the season (alarmingly) started tomorrow.

Catcher (2)

• Miguel Amaya
• Matt Thaiss

Infield (6)

• Michael Busch
• Nico Hoerner
• Dansby Swanson
• Isaac Paredes
• Miles Mastrobuoni
• Luis Vazquez

Outfield (5)

• Ian Happ
• Pete Crow-Armstrong
• Cody Bellinger
• Seiya Suzuki
• Alexander Canario

Starting Pitchers (5)

• Shota Imanaga
• Justin Steele
• Jameson Taillon
• Javier Assad
• Jordan Wicks

Relief Pitchers (8)

• Porter Hodge
• Tyson Miller
• Nate Pearson
• Julian Merryweather
• Keegan Thompson
• Eli Morgan
• Rob Zastryzny
• Caleb Kilian

On 40-Man, Off Active Roster

• Owen Caissie
• Matt Mervis
• Kevin Alcántara
• Benjamin Cowles
• Hayden Wesneski
• Ben Brown
• Luke Little
• Daniel Palencia
• Jack Neely
• Gavin Hollowell
• Michael Arias
• Ethan Roberts

This is how we have to list it, I think, because it keeps players (Canario, Merryweather, Thompson, Zastryzny, and Kilian) who are out of options hypothetically in the organization. In reality, I expect the team to make more additions this winter, forcing more changes, and while Roberts and Mervis could be among the first to go, I would also expect Zastryzny and Kilian to be high on a cut list. Canario likely has a modicum of trade value, though after Tauchman was culled from the herd, he becomes more plausible as a complementary outfield option. Much depends on the shape of their next set of moves.

The infield mix listed above is obviously weak. One of Mastrobuoni and Vazquez will need to be in the minors for the team to enter 2025 with any serious intention of winning. A number of appealing infielders are available via free agency and trade, and a few (headlined by Mariners third baseman Josh Rojas, whom I highlighted as a target six weeks ago) joined the pool of available talent by being non-tendered Friday. The search for another catcher probably isn't over, with Thaiss signing that split deal. Last winter, the Brewers ended up signing Gary Sánchez. The Cubs need right-handed power, and Sánchez could be a fit for them, too. It's not the worst idea to closely mimic the Brewers, in some areas.

We also anticipate additions to the starting rotation and bullpen from here, and as long as the team is smart about who goes when those newcomers join, this is shaping up to be a better, deeper team than it was last year. With Wisdom, Madrigal, and Tauchman all gone, you figure there will be at least one major external bat coming in. If the team follows through on their rumored interest in trading Cody Bellinger to facilitate other moves, even that would only cancel out. It sure looks like Jed Hoyer is creating space for guys like Caissie, Canario, Alcántara, Ballesteros, and Matt Shaw to have an impact in 2025. In that way, this roster is taking a shape vaguely reminiscent of 2015's. The upside is lower, at the moment, but the floor might also be higher. It's easy to forget, given how well it turned out, how wide the error bars were on possible outcomes for that team trying to emerge from a three-year rebuild.

In 2014-15, the key additions were Jon Lester and Jason Hammel in free agency and Miguel Montero and Dexter Fowler in trades. That's almost exactly what the Cubs need now: two strong starters (or one and a strong reliever), and two well-rounded hitters, ideally with strong on-base skills. It wasn't an easy offseason to pull off back then, and it wouldn't be easy to do this winter, either. It's pretty clear what the team needs to do, though, and with so many of their fringy pieces either shoved out of the way or locked into clearer places in the budget, they now have some obvious ways forward.

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[Billy62]

     Well the winter is here! This actually is one of my favorite parts of the baseball season. It can be bittersweet. With some exceptions over the years, I really don't like to see players go. I understand the reality, but it still tugs at the heart strings a bit. But then there is the added excitement of new faces coming aboard and the hope that you are watching your team building a new more competitive version of itself. So after two consecutive 83-79 seasons, I don't see the team as broken, but in order to advance to the next tier changes have to be made. Kyle Hendricks going to the Angels was easier for me to see happening. I knew after his final outing of last season that he was not going to be back. We picked up a catcher and two pitchers so far. Not earth shattering deals, but small improvements just the same. If we get more of the same from Amaya that we got towards the end of last season, that spot in the line-up is going to be a lot more solid. Bethancourt, Smiley, and Almonte had already declared free agency along with Hendricks. With the new FA filings by Wisdom, Madrigal, Alzolay, Tauchman, Wingenter and Davis, it looks like the door is wide open for trades and new signings. Where these guys are going to land is open now to all sorts of speculation. Although, even though I have no info to support this. My gut tells me that Wisdom is going across town to the White Sox. So now we get to see what Hoyer's plan is now. He must realize that this is a  make or break season this year. Standing pat for the most part and expecting big things from the farm did not really pan out. So I am asking Santa for a big stick or two in the line-up, maybe a flamethrower starter, a solid reliever in the middle, and a lights out closer. Basically waiting for the deals to begin.