These 4 Free Agents Are Candidates to Step Into Vacant Catching Role for Cubs

[RandallPnkFloyd]

One of these guys could be the next David Ross—a hero of a backup backstop. Another could be a manager, like, tomorrow.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

If there’s a guarantee this winter for the Chicago Cubs, it's this: they will make an addition behind the plate. Look no further than the current projected depth charts at major outlets to see how ineluctable this is. Behind Miguel Amaya, FanGraphs projects Moises Ballesteros for 24 percent of the time at catcher and Pablo Aliendo at nine. Baseball Prospectus has Ballesteros at 30 behind Amaya’s 70 percent share. I point this out because it’s humorous, but it is also direct evidence of the absence of a catcher on the current roster beyond Amaya.

The Cubs rode out a trio of catching options in 2024, to supplement their prospective full-time backstop in Amaya. Yan Gomes started things out, before his absence of offense became too burdensome to bear. Tomás Nido’s time ran out following injury and a sudden rise from Christian Bethancourt, resulting in his release. Bethancourt, in turn, was outrighted off the 40-man roster at season’s end and elected free agency. And, so, the Cubs are left solely with Amaya. 

Despite reports of a deadline pursuit of Logan O’Hoppe, it’s difficult to see the Cubs pursuing a starting-caliber catcher on the trade market this winter. Catchers with significant value on both sides of the ball are so few and far between that those that have one are reluctant to part with them. As such, any boost behind the dish will likely come more in the form of 'supplementation' via free agency. 'Supplementation' likely translates to “defensive stability with merely occasional offense.”

As such, it’s not a particularly inspiring group. With Travis d’Arnaud already off the market, there’s one fewer valuable defensive backstop with occasional offensive production. The remaining names are certainly recognizable, given that all but one of the 20-plus options available are at least 30 years of age and have been around for a minute in myriad capacities. But despite a high volume of options, we can likely narrow it down to just a few. 

The ideal backup can supplement Amaya from not only a defensive standpoint, but an offensive one. You want someone who either features the opposite split or is relatively split-neutral, in order to avoid dropoff or redundancy on Amaya's off days. Because of that, we can eliminate a handful of names almost immediately. I won’t list them all, but they include the likes of Luke Maile, Omar Narvaez, Max Stassi, and Reese McGuire. Jacob Stallings, too, for while he’s coming off his best offensive season, he also played half his games in Colorado last year.

When you work to eliminate those types and those who are simply too old to garner serious consideration, you really arrive at exactly four reasonably interesting names: Kyle Higashioka, Elías Díaz, Danny Jansen, and Carson Kelly. 

The four are listed in order of age, with Higashioka the oldest at 35 years old. Díaz follows at 34, with each of Jansen & Kelly sitting at 30. Interestingly, they’re also somewhat clustered together in terms of their defensive quality. Baseball Prospectus’s comprehensive catching metric, Catcher Defensive Adjustment (CDA), has Higashioka (3.1), Díaz (2.1), and Kelly (1.8) ranked in succession at 12th, 13th, and 14th. That’s among catchers with at least 500 innings. Mind you, all three sit higher than 29th-rated Miguel Amaya (-2.6).

Any other way you look at it, none of the four stand out in any particular regard. Higashioka and Díaz each rate a little better as framers, while Jansen has the worst throwing metrics out of the four. Ultimately, though, any defensive difference between this group would almost serve as something of a wash. Which means that the offensive supplement is going to be a key component the Cubs should earnestly prioritize.

There’s still something of a mystery to be solved with respect to Amaya’s offensive profile. While a revamped approach led to a second-half rise on that side of the ball, he still finished with stark reverse splits, turning in a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a paltry 30 against southpaws. So again, you’re looking for the complement here. Either someone split-neutral or—perhaps preferably—a lefty-masher. The “masher” term being relative here. 

Higashioka, who had a really nice offensive season as he stole the starting gig in San Diego this year, is extremely split-neutral. He wRC+’d 103 vs. left-handed pitching and 105 against righties. There is a slight favor of hitting lefties throughout his career, though, as those marks have come in at 94 and 76, respectively. I think there is a reasonable case to be made coming off the best offensive season of his career. But one does have to wonder about how much the inherent risk in even a backup catcher of that age would undermine such a case, especially given how the Cubs just watched Yan Gomes flame out in real time. 

If we’re eliminating Higashioka on the basis of aging curves, we’re probably eliminating Díaz due to redundancy. While he’s had some nice power seasons, he’s generally been a below-average hitter with splits that mirror Amaya’s in their reversal. He was pretty neutral through 2021, but after a dramatic swing toward lefty-mashing in 2022, Díaz flew way the other way. His wRC+ against left-handers is just 53 in each of the last two seasons, compared to 94 against the other handedness. Despite the midseason rumors of a Cubs pursuit, it’s tough to see that being reignited this winter given such a trend. 

Which brings us to our two Illinois natives: Kelly & Jansen. If the ideal split is the goal, then Kelly’s your guy. He’s at a 117 wRC+ for his career against left-handed pitching against 77 vs. the other side. Jansen does, though, sit more in league with Higashioka in terms of his neutrality (103 vs. 93, respectively). Kelly has flashed offensive upside and is coming off his best offensive season in just about every respect. Jansen has more of a sustained track record but coming off, arguably, his worst. But given the age and the potential compliment to Amaya, one imagines that one of our two latter options here would serve as the most appealing for Jed Hoyer’s front office. 

The possibility of a trade certainly exists. But you’re probably not making such a move unless you’re really trying to push Amaya. Here, you give him the opportunity to stake his claim coming off that second half while supplementing him in a much more effective way than you did last year. All while giving the Moises Ballesteros-Pablo Aliendo contingent more time to develop within the system. It’s mildly humorous that within a Cubs team that needs to add impact to their roster, adding complimentary catcher is also seemingly just as paramount as anything else they could do.

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[Jason Ross]

Someone made a post recently, maybe 7-10 days ago, that I responded to (maybe it was Post Padder?) about Kyle Higashioka. I responded to it kind of tepidly in regards to him but since then, I've taken some time to think about it, and I think I've come around on the idea of him being the guy I'd most like to target. 

He's a specialty player - currently he's a guy who's going to hit home runs and frame the baseball. His HR rate increased a lot last year, but so did his LA (looking at some video his hand movement changed a bit and I think that's helping here). He's quite good at getting to the barrel which allows him to pull the hell out of the baseball and just crank 'em. 

He's probably not going to do much more, however. But with the Cubs lineup, getting some HR power (and despite even splits last year, he's been more of a hitter against LHP, something the Cubs could also use) and framing makes sense. 

He's not going to make a massive impact, but I liken him a bit to when the Cubs signed Yan Gomes. You get him on a 2-year deal, and you give yourself the ability to bring up Ballesteros when you want either as a C or a DH. 

[Bertz]

Another feather in Higashioka's cap is his ability to speak Japanese.  We know the Cubs really value soft skills from their catchers.  With Imanaga on hand and the team already being being linked to two different Japanese SPs in the early going this winter it might be a pretty relevant differentiator.