Which of the Ancient Free-Agent Starters Should Cubs Sign This Winter?

[Matthew Trueblood]

There are three former aces fast approaching retirement, but who still have something left in the tank and intend to pitch in 2025. Surely, one or more of them are at least worth a call.

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Everything came apart for Justin Verlander in 2024. It was a sad thing to watch, for the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer. He has a strong argument for being the best pitcher of his generation. It wasn't as if the fire was entirely out, but it sure looked to be down to glowing embers. Verlander posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts, giving up 15 home runs in barely 90 innings, and he didn't even make the Astros' playoff roster.

That said, he's still Justin Verlander. His fastball doesn't have the extra yard on it anymore, but he sat 92-95 and touched 97 with it, and it still has as much carry as any heater in the league. He still showed the ability to throw strikes. He just didn't miss bats the way he always has before—the way he needs to, at this point, to beat anybody. His strikeout rate fell below 20%. He looked very old.

Now, Verlander is a free agent, and the Cubs are certainly one possible destination. In the past, they were on the short list of destinations he talked about, outside of the Tigers organization that brought him into professional baseball, and Houston, where he revived his career the first time. His price tag, which was genuinely astronomical the last time he hit free agency, should be lower, and any team materially more serious about contending in 2025 than the Cubs are isn't going to need Verlander. Is now the right time for the two sides to get together, at last?

To answer that, we have to know how much the Cubs are willing to spend on what would be a part-time rotation role. With a pitcher like Verlander, at this stage of his career, you have to build the expectation of some time spent on the injured list into your projection. Speaking of pitchers like Verlander, though, we also have to consider alternatives, and there are two others like Verlander who deserve a close look.

Max Scherzer is a year and a half Verlander's junior, but at times over the last few years, he's looked every bit as much like burnt toast. Even more curtailed by injury than Verlander's, he might have had an even more frustrating campaign. When he was actually on the mound, though, he proved much more effective. In nine starts, he maintained an ERA south of 4.00. His fastball only sits around 92 and touches no higher than 95, but velocity was never his chief weapon, as it could sometimes be for Verlander.

Scherzer's slider and curveball both continue to miss bats at an impressive and valuable rate. He can still punch hitters out, because he still has these two theoretically plus secondary weapons. For Verlander, while the trace elements of his old self are there, the questions about viability and performance loom large. For Scherzer, it's a simpler (but not easier) test: Is he healthy? Can he stay healthy for even half a season's worth of work, and is it possible to time that healthy window such that it provides maximal impact on the pursuit of a championship? If so, he's still a solid starter who can dominate in short bursts and beat even good lineups, even if he's more vulnerable to the long ball than he used to be. If not, he'd be a waste of money and a roster spot.

Both Verlander and Scherzer are headed for Cooperstown, whenever their careers wind down. Charlie Morton is a step shy of them. (Maybe two steps shy, even.) He just turned 41 this week, and for the last few years, he's shown heavy preference for Atlanta and the Rays, two teams close to his offseason home. Nor is there any particular reason either of those teams should cease to want him, just yet. He pitched 165 innings across 30 starts in 2024, and although his numbers showed significant decline, he was still useful.

Morton's stuff is fading, if only slightly. His fastball still sits 94 and gets up to 97, but it's lost a little carry. His cutter isn't as biting. He had an uninspiring 4.19 ERA last year; his lowest strikeout rate since 2015; and his highest opponent home-run rate since 2010. For different reasons, though, neither Atlanta nor Tampa looks much disposed—or at least able—to bring Morton back this winter. It would be a good time for the Cubs to wade in and at least ask about his willingness to spend a twilight season on the North Side.

Which of these three is most desirable depends on factors we just can't know right now. It hinges on how much scouts believe Verlander can move past whatever diminution afflicted him last year; whether or not Scherzer is capable of getting healthy and staying that way; and what price each player is placing on themselves as they hit the market. It makes nothing but sense, though, for the team to at least explore each possibility. They need a frontline starter, but they also need some help with depth, and these three deliver upside, veteran savvy, and a certain amount of safety, too. If nothing else, signing one of them should raise the floor of the possible outcome space for the Cubs heading into next season.

View full article

[Bertz]

I'm more comfortable than most when it comes to  older pitchers, but any of these guys feel like a poor fit for this team.

The Cubs are not really hurting for innings.  Presuming a separate addition closer to the front of the rotation (whether by FA or trade), and presuming that Wesneski is fully considered a short relief option, this is still the Cubs' rotation depth

Steele

Imanaga

Higher End SP

Taillon

Assad

Brown

Wicks

Horton

Birdsell

There are obviously question marks on health or performance or both for many of these guys, that said there are 9 starters you'd feel at least somewhat comfortable with starting a game next April.  

That's not to say you can't add additional starters, but I think if you do add more SP depth those additions need to add either talent or certainty above the level of the guys already in house.  If you're giving up the freedom and flexibility to swap between the optional depth/prospect types, there is a decently high bar to clear.