3 New Free-Agent Hitters Show Up on Cubs Offseason Radar

[Matthew Trueblood]

The deadline to exercise or decline contract options and to extend qualifying offers to pending free agents passed late Monday afternoon. In the wake of that deadline, three intriguing names became incrementally more appealing to the Cubs.

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The fits aren't perfect; this will be a winter of imperfect fits. However, a pair of free-agent outfielders became marginally more plausible as Cubs targets Monday, when their teams elected not to extend qualifying offers that would have made them cost draft picks and international free-agent spending allotments, in addition to money. More importantly, perhaps, a player almost no one expected to be a free agent at all suddenly became one, at a key position of need for the team. Let's examine each case in turn.

Travis d'Arnaud, C, Atlanta
The Braves were widely expected to pick up their $8-million option on d'Arnaud, even though he's a catcher who will turn 36 this winter. d'Arnaud has been with the team for the last five seasons, and batted .238/.302/.436 in 341 plate appearances this season. He's been up-and-down over the past two years, missing some time with injuries and going through prolonged slumps. He doesn't hit right-handed pitchers well at this stage of his career. However, he's a highly respected backstop who still does an average job as a pitch-framer (99.8 SL+, a rate stat for called strikes relative to expectations based on location, where 100 is average) and controls the running game well. Opponents stole successfully in 80% of their attempts against d'Arnaud last year, but he posed enough of a threat that runners only took off in 6.1% of their chances, compared to 6.7% against the average semi-regular catcher.

As a hitter, he's showing signs of slippage. He doesn't pull the ball in the air as much as he used to, and he gets beaten in the strike zone more than he used to. Still, he was basically the guy he's always been last year, good at not expanding the zone and at swinging aggressively within it. For a catcher who can take the short side of a rough timeshare, he's more than adequate, and $8 million was a very reasonable rate at which to keep him. If d'Arnaud does sign for less than that now that he's been cast into free agency, the Cubs have to take an active interest, even if he doesn't represent an especially tidy complement or a major upgrade over Miguel Amaya.

Jurickson Profar, LF/DH, San Diego
I can see why the Padres were hesitant—and ultimately unwilling—to offer Profar a qualifying offer. His track record as a genuinely good player is relatively short, and his defensive utility is very limited. He's heading into his mid-30s. Rolling $21 million and change worth of dice on his defiance of the typical aging curve feels like it would have been a bad bet. I also think, though, that Profar instantly becomes a compelling free agent for any team, now that he's not attached to draft-pick compensation.

A switch-hitter, Profar has always been reasonably balanced at the plate. What's wildly impressive, though, is how he emerged as a much better player this year by getting better almost across the board. His approach held up perfectly, he made even more contact within the zone, and he started hitting the ball much, much harder, from each side of the plate.

Seasons	Batter Hand	PA	Swing%	Chase%	InZoneWhiff%	PHiA/SW	100+/Sw	Hit95+%	90thExitVel
2022	Lefty	461	45.8%	24.4%	14.7%	4.2%	7.5%	37.3%	102.4
2023	Lefty	374	48.3%	25.7%	14.4%	3.1%	5.6%	29.5%	101.5
2024	Lefty	493	46.1%	21.0%	12.9%	3.8%	9.1%	43.0%	104.9
2022	Righty	197	38.7%	21.8%	11.7%	2.8%	6.7%	28.4%	101.2
2023	Righty	147	44.4%	22.5%	7.7%	3.5%	7.3%	37.3%	102
2024	Righty	175	44.2%	24.1%	9.0%	3.6%	13.0%	47.8%	105.2

Note, especially, that 90th-percentile exit velocity. Profar found a way to unlock a new level of power at the top end of his range, without expanding his zone too much or whiffing more often. Regression could and will drag down on him a bit, as will age, but Profar looks like one of the more solid, well-rounded bets among free-agent bats. San Diego's squeamishness about a big payday for a non-superstar could allow the Cubs to lengthen their lineup at a fairly low cost.

Profar would be the 10th guy, but he could play almost every day. Now that Cody Bellinger is back, he could sometimes slide over and take center field for Pete Crow-Armstrong against lefties, leaving right field open for Profar. Ian Happ could also sit occasionally against lefties, and Profar could spell both Seiya Suzuki and Bellinger just to keep them fresh and healthy, including against righties. Injury will inevitably afflict at least one of Bellinger, Suzuki, and Crow-Armstrong for some meaningful stretch next season, too, so Profar would step in as a highly qualified substitute over those periods.

Tyler O'Neill, OF, Boston
All this time, all O'Neill had to do was find a way to get the ball in the air to the pull field more often. That was it, and everyone knew it, but he got several years into his career before he found a way to consistently meet the mandate. Fenway Park is bad for some hitters. For some hitters, in engenders bad habits. For O'Neill, it engendered exactly the right habits, and lo, things turned out swimmingly. O'Neill batted .241/.336/.511, with 31 home runs in just 475 plate appearances. Pulling it helped, especially, as the share of his swings that resulted in hard pull-side contact in the air increased half again, from 3.4% to 5.2%, but most of all, he elevated more consistently—and reshaped his bat path to ensure that his best swings generated more loft, as opposed to maximizing bat speed without worrying about plane.

It's possible O'Neill could find a bigger role elsewhere, but as a righty slugger, he can be a direct and easy sub for any of Crow-Armstrong, Bellinger, Happ, or Michael Busch, with Bellinger sliding in to take over first base if the team elects to sit their sophomore first baseman. It's good for the historically injury-prone O'Neill not to play every day, anyway, but he's also a highly capable defender, setting him somewhat apart from Profar and making it easier to fit him into a positional corps that projects to have Suzuki act as the DH most of the time next year.

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The utterly unexpected availability of d'Arnaud is interesting, but the Cubs also gain some leverage in the market from not having to ponder giving up a draft pick to sign either Profar or O'Neill. They might not fit nicely into a crowded positional picture, but these are two of the better second-tier sluggers on this winter's market, and they're going to be less expensive than expected in at least one regard. Chicago's front office should be proactive in exploring these opportunities.

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[Development DL]

How much time does it take you to research and write a piece like this . Since the first time I stumbled onto your work , it struck me as unique version of Neyer meets Maddon at the SABR convention . 
 

I appreciate how much targeted effort it must take . 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Development DL said:

How much time does it take you to research and write a piece like this . Since the first time I stumbled onto your work , it struck me as unique version of Neyer meets Maddon at the SABR convention . 
 

I appreciate how much targeted effort it must take . 

Welcome to NSBB!