Three Iowa Cubs Hitters With Something To Prove By Season's End

[Jason Ross]

With the season just a few weeks away from ending, which Cub prospects can still prove something to the team over that time? 

Overall, the Cubs have had a nice year from a hitting prospect point of view. Pete Crow-Armstrong is finding his footing as a solid MLB player (if not more with the progress in his offensive game), and down on the farm, most of the Cubs best-and-brightest have been shades of "good" to "great" on the season on the whole. Even newly drafted players like Cam Smith have shown out. However, despite that, the last few weeks can be difference makers for a few prospects in Iowa regarding how their 2025 starts. Having something to prove isn't always bad or good; these prospects may need to show continued development, ingratiate themselves at a new level, or show a spark down the stretch. These three weeks don't replace the entire year but would allow these prospects to end the year on a high note while forming a foundation for their 2025 years. 

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Owen Caissie, OF (Triple-A)
As of writing this article, Owen Caissie remains a member of the Iowa Cubs, but there's belief that he could be called up before action on Friday. Regardless, the outfielder has an important few weeks leading up to the end of the season. Caissie, since the MiLB All-Star break, has begun to pull the ball more (over 43% of the time), has hit the ball in the air more (an increase of over 10% with a 5% increase in launch angle), and these have seemingly resulted in a large increase in his isolated power. There has been a loss of contact rate over that time, though, so things aren't perfect, but we're starting to see the power project meet the results. Regarding who Caissie is as a prospect, it's starting to feel like we're rounding third and headed home regarding who the outfielder is as a total package. 

The left-handed slugger with a strong few weeks (either at Iowa or Chicago) gives the Cubs even more to think about than he's already done in 2024. While I think it's fair to assume that Caissie will struggle upon an initial call-up to Chicago (as we have seen many of the best prospects across baseball do), a solid first impression and good data would give the team positive vibes heading into the next season. I highly doubt any of these results will result in the Cubs feeling so confident that he's handed a DH or right field spot on Opening Day without the Cubs looking to address either position (if Bellinger opts out) outside the organization. Still, with a good last few weeks, it wouldn't be shocking to see Caissie as the "next man up" in the vein of Ben Brown or Pete Crow-Armstrong if an injury would occur early in the season to an outfielder or Michael Busch. Owen Caissie is starting to round himself out as a power hitter, and a few more weeks of data could go a long way into helping him see Chicago sooner rather than later on a permanent basis.

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Matt Shaw, 2B/3B (Triple-A)
Matt Shaw is starting to settle into Iowa after initial struggles. He's posted a .403 wOBA over his last 30 days at his new home, with a solid 75% contact rate, a near 15% barrel rate, and an in-zone whiff rate of only 16%. He's posting a .236 ISO over that span and a 10% walk rate, culminating in a wRC+ over 140 in his last 72 plate appearances. Despite starting cold, Shaw has turned it on, and it looks like he could be getting close to being MLB-ready. So what could a few more weeks do for Shaw?

The Cubs are currently in an interesting spot with Shaw (not necessarily a bad one). After trading for Isaac Paredes and solving their third base situation for what should be (at least) the next three seasons, Shaw is almost assuredly ticketed for second base at the next level, a position that is (in theory) settled for the next two seasons with incumbent Nico Hoerner signed through the 2026 season. It's possible (though not probable) that the Cubs would be willing to move Hoerner and give Shaw the position outright if they feel the return (who the team has been rumored to have entertained offers for around the deadline) is worthwhile. Hoerner, who is cost-controlled and a solid player, would appeal to many teams, even if he's never going to be a great hitter. A team that is second-base needy could be convinced to part with something reasonably interesting in return for the gold glover,

Ultimately, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Cubs would not go that route. The Cubs have put a premium on defense, and Nico Hoerner should continue to be a 3- or 4-win player. Even if the Cubs are pretty unlikely to be that aggressive with Matt Shaw, three more weeks of strong numbers would likely put Shaw on a similar path as Caissie - one that would allow Shaw to be the "next man up" in the case of an injury to any of Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, or Paredes. The more Shaw can do at Triple-A to force the issue, the better it will be for everyone involved. 

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Ed Howard, SS (Triple-A)
Like the aforementioned Shaw and Caissie, Ed Howard cannot prove he's MLB-ready by the end of the year. There has been a bit of a misconception as to why he's currently in Triple-A, though (it's not that he's skipping Double-A), it's that the Cubs are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle a second time with the shortstop. A few years ago, Luis Vazquez was a similarly aged prospect who was seen as a glove-only player struggling to find his footing in High-A. Promoted to Iowa for a few weeks at the end of the 2021 season, Vazquez seemed to "click" offensively the next year. If you ask Vazquez, and others have...he'd tell you this short time gave him a foundation and a platform to succeed later as it showed him the flaws in his offensive game. Vazquez would then turn his ship around into a prospect who's made his MLB debut and could see himself as a backup infielder on an MLB roster as soon as next year. I suspect Howard is in Iowa to do the same: learn for a few weeks, then return to South Bend or Tennessee to start fresh next year. 

Ed Howard, now 22, had some short runs of success this year but has fallen back on hard times since his promotion. The Cubs have to try something there. I don't think he will stick at Iowa next year, regardless of how good a few weeks go. But I think he has something to prove to himself and the organization, and a successful run (or at least one heavy on the "learning) could be very important for him and his future. Are the Cubs at the point of releasing him this offseason? Probably not (though he wouldn't be the first 2020 prep first-rounder to find his route out of professional baseball if it were to happen), as I don't think they'd be crazy enough to think that his only saving grace would be a successful three-week stint two levels above where he was struggling. But I also think the team is at a point where they need to get him going if he's going to have a real future, and they can't afford to let a 22-year-old continue to learn in South Bend without a kick in the pants in some way. A good few weeks of learning could show the Cubs to have a little more faith in the former top pick and give Howard the confidence or the knowledge to replicate Luis Vazquez's path to being prospect-relevant. 

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