As Cubs' Last Great First Baseman Returns to Wrigley Field, It's Good to Know They Have Their Next One

[Matthew Trueblood]

The season has been long for the Cubs' rookie first baseman. The last two months have seen some difficult adjustments. Yet, everything in his profile tells us there's a star here.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

If you're the type to buy in heavily on second-half trends for one season when predicting the next, you might be somewhat down on Michael Busch right now. In his first full big-league season, Busch has had a tough run since the All-Star break, batting .206/.296/.348 in 152 plate appearances. Splits like those are dangerous, though, because they suggest a causal relationship and a staying power that rarely exist.

That goes double for a rookie. Busch has gone through multiple phases of adjustment this season. First, he had to learn to hold something back for the breaking ball, to cut down on an unsustainably high strikeout rate in the spring. Next, it was patching the hole in his swing against fastballs at the top of the zone. Now, it's about getting the ball off the ground more and consistently creating high-value contact.

Busch has dramatically reduced his whiff rate against breaking pitches over the last two months. His strikeout rate has continued to trend downward, and he's maintained a low chase rate. He's whiffing and getting beaten with weak contact a bit more often against high-velocity fastballs, but only a bit more often. For a guy struggling through the second half of a first campaign against the best pitchers in the world, his bad stretches haven't even been that bad. In his worst month so far, a .233/.303/.389 August, Busch also had his highest hard-hit rate, at 43.9%. He just needs to get more of that hard contact off the ground, and get a little bit more lucky.

Meanwhile, his defense has been sensational--and more than at any other time in baseball's last 100 years, defense is a significant part of the value equation for first basemen. This season, first sackers are only hitting .246/.319/.413, good for a 105 OPS+. They're being outhit by shortstops. Multiple managers have made mention this year of a trend they perceive at work in the game, which they hope and expect to continue, toward defenses that include better athletes at the traditionally offense-first positions. With shifts outlawed and the game's baseline athleticism rising, that makes sense. With hitting a more difficult and athletically demanding endeavor than ever, it makes even more. Being the big, lumbering first baseman or corner outfielder isn't an advantage at the plate anymore, and so, the league is looking for less big, lumbering people at those positions.

Busch is a perfect fit for this new world. A solid but slender 6-foot-1, he's spent this season proving he can hit at well beyond the level typical of the league's first basemen, and he's also been one of the best fielders in the league at the spot. Only Matt Olson has more Defensive Runs Saved. There was a brutal early learning curve, but since about mid-May, Busch has been the best defender of the cold corner in MLB. He's been 11 runs better than average on balls to his right, toward the hole between first and second base, easily the league's best.

This weekend, the Yankees come to town, which gives Cubs fans a chance to celebrate their first reunion with Anthony Rizzo since he was dealt in 2021. Rizzo was as good as any first baseman in the league in his best Cubs seasons, and replacing him was difficult--but the job is now done, at least in the medium term. Busch looks like a three- to five-year solution at first base, a winning player who can provide value on both sides of the runs ledger. It takes a little bit of the bitterness out of the bittersweet moment that is Rizzo's return.

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[We Got The Whole 9]

Funny you mention that about desiring high-level athletes at every position. I just read that the Padres are currently fielding a team with 7 guys whose primary position throughout their early pro career - and many have logged a lot of MLB innings there as well - was shortstop. I found it pretty fascinating. 

 

I don't know what to expect of Busch offensively next year and moving forward but I love seeing that he has become an elite defender. I feel like he should be a 120-130 bat.