Craig Counsell Has Found the Relief Ace He Needed to Vault the Cubs Forward

[Matthew Trueblood]

You can't spell 'Craigtember' without 'C-R-A'. Meet the Cubs' Counsell Relief Ace, and quake in fear, rest of the National League.

Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

The worry, if you were a Cubs fan long about mid-June, was that Craig Counsell's magic doesn't work without an elite bullpen--that the team's failure to build a great relief corps would doom them in their first season under their new $40-million skipper. They still might be doomed for 2024, but thanks to Porter Hodge, we have a fresh reminder that Counsell brings the magic with him wherever he goes.

Hodge, 23, debuted on May 22. His first three appearances were all low-leverage affairs, and after a rough showing on Jun. 6, he made a brief sojourn back to Triple-A Iowa. Since returning, though, he has slowly established himself as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball--and the kind of bullpen catalyst Counsell specializes in developing and empowering.

Now up to 31 appearances with the big-league team, Hodge has had 27 scoreless outings. That 87.1% rate is second-best in MLB, among hurlers with at least 15 relief appearances. Only the Guardians' Hunter Gaddis edges him out, and then only narrowly, at 87.7%. Hodge has fanned 33.6% of opposing batters and owns a 1.80 ERA. Since he made it back from Iowa on Jun. 21, opponents have a .433 OPS against him. He's become, if not the sole closer, an implicitly trusted relief weapon, and the linchpin of the league's best relief corps.

Indeed, since Jun. 1, the Cubs lead MLB in Scoreless Appearance Rate (SAR) from relievers, at 75.4%. Through the end of May, their SAR of 63.7% was better only than those of the Rockies and White Sox. It took time for this bullpen to come together, and the story is about much more than just Hodge, but he's the most important piece of the puzzle--not just because he's performed so well, but because he's a walking affirmation of the staying power of Counsell's capacity for turning rookies into relief aces.

Pitching in high-leverage relief in MLB is excruciatingly hard--both physically and mentally. Few pitchers can meet both types of challenge and succeed as closers or high-usage setup men right away when they arrive in the majors, but under Counsell, that miniature baseball miracle has happened numerous times. Josh Hader and Devin Williams are the famous examples, but not even the only ones. Now, he's demonstrating the same ability to manage a young pitcher through the minefield of a rookie campaign under the pressure of backend bullpen work, in a new place and without a coaching staff in which he had much say.

Whether the Cubs can pull off the comeback from their dismal first half or not, Hodge's breakout season is a testament to the value of their manager, and to the mental toughness of the hurler himself. It's also a reinforcement of the organization's belief that they've come a long way in terms of pitching development. All of those things are important, but if the team can string together enough winning streaks to sneak into the postseason, they'll be doubly so, and much of the credit will belong to the pairing of veteran manager and inexperienced flamethrower.

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Sept. 1
... the kind of bullpen catalyst Counsell specializes in developing and empowering.
... he's a walking affirmation of the staying power of Counsell's capacity for turning rookies into relief aces.
...Hodge's breakout season is a testament to the value of their manager,

Hi Matt,
I've been reading your articles for several months now - and I'd like to get your overall evaluation.

Besides the two pitchers you mentioned in this article - Hader and Williams,
what are the other rookies that Counsell turned "into relief aces"?
I'm not being sarcastic , I just don't follow baseball nearly as closely as most on this site - so I truly don't know.  Thanks.

If a coach or manager has this kind of ability - wouldn't he be worth even more than the $40M that the Cubs are 
paying him?  Hader has been paid $44M over the last 3 years and Williams $7M this year.  So, one might say
that Counsell has developed more than $50M of pitching value via these two pitchers alone. 

Are there other managers/coaches who can do this?  Are there others who can do similar things for
starting pitchers, hitters?  Who are they?

Assuming all this is true, it seems inconsistent with some of your previous articles -

1) perhaps Counsell is past his prime
2) Counsell is not responsible for the future performance of the bullpen
3) Counsell is responsible for the "failed" Morel experiment
4) Counsell's challenge process is inferior

How do we square all this?  Is Counsell invaluable - or when considering his deficiencies 
is he merely human :) ?

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

welcome!