The Two Problems Facing the Cubs as Another Important Offseason Looms

[RandallPnkFloyd]

There's a difference between what this team is and what it ought to be. That much is clear. Unfortunately, the club's irrational belief in its own roster has foreclosed some options for fixing that.

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re like me, you’re punting on the remainder of the 2024 Chicago Cubs. If you’re even more like me, you’re punting on the remainder of the 2024 Chicago Cubs and turning your attention almost entirely toward Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. But the very little bit of attention span I have remaining for baseball, as August crisps toward September, is thinking about the Cubs in 2025.

Earlier this week, I wondered about Ian Happ’s best spot in the batting order moving forward. Given his work this year, it appears that either the top of the lineup card or the very middle thereof (No. 1 or No. 5) are the most likely slots in which we’ll see him. Throughout that process, though, a concern started to emerge in the back of my mind that eventually moved to the front of it. That concern was later compounded by fellow North Side Baseball contributor @matto1233’s verbalizing of the same idea. So let’s talk about it. 

Specifically, the concern is roster flexibility. In a broader sense, it’s roster construction. But as it relates to any movement within this lineup – an idea that could have a large bearing on where Happ hits next year – the rigid nature of the group is something I’ll be watching with a keen eye as we crawl toward the winter.

The Chicago Cubs are a team built out of complementary bats. This is an issue we’ve raised before. It’s a team – and a market – in need of A Guy. They have lots of nice bats on the roster. But without A Guy, you’re not maximizing the complementary nature of the individual skill sets.

These are the current Cubs hitters under contract or team control through at least next season (with the final year of that control):

• Happ: 2026

• Michael Busch: 2029

• Nico Hoerner: 2026

• Dansby Swanson: 2029

• Isaac Paredes: 2027

• Seiya Suzuki: 2026

• Cody Bellinger: 2024 (Player Opt-In, though!)

That’s to say nothing of Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and a handful of positional prospects in the upper minors (Matt Shaw, James Triantos, Kevin Alcántara, etc.). Simply put, there are a ton of bodies here, both for the remainder of 2024 and for the foreseeable future. 

So if you’re Jed Hoyer et al, what exactly are you doing here? 

You’ve assembled a group of quality baseball players, but many of them have underperformed or proven too streaky to be reliable. And while none of them have performed outright poorly enough to dump them in some money-saving fashion, the collective also isn’t strong enough to hang with the top offenses around the National League. As such, the ones the Cubs might be motivated to move should a higher-upside bat come along are likely to be difficult to clear.

Nobody’s taking Swanson’s contract. It’s unlikely that anyone takes on Bellinger’s, once he (presumably) opts in. Seiya Suzuki’s upside with the bat isn’t so much that a team is willing to acquire him to DH, given his demonstrated durability issues. You can maybe move Hoerner on his reasonable contract, but what impact player are you getting at the keystone? There are so few such players, and those teams that possess one aren’t keen to part with them. If you’re moving Hoerner, it’s probably to create space for Matt Shaw or James Triantos, but do either of them move the needle enough?

And those are really the only conversations this team might be willing to have. Happ is an integral part of the roster and the culture. Busch has brought stability to a position that’s been volatile since Anthony Rizzo’s departure. Crow-Armstrong’s all-world defense is finally being supported by some flashes at the plate. You just moved a fan favorite in Christopher Morel to acquire Paredes and his multiple years of team control. They’re all locks. Now we’ve got the ol’ rock-and-hard place issue.

This ultimately speaks to two problems. One is the organization’s roster construction to date. As Matt Ostrowski put it in the NSBB writers Slack, the Cubs brought in Dansby Swanson to be A Guy--except that Swanson isn’t A Guy. He’s someone you bring in to supplement A Guy, as we all saw him do with Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuña Jr. in Atlanta. Defense? Yes. Leadership and vibes? Absolutely. Offensively, though, nothing about his slog of a 2024 has been surprising, as frustrating as it may be. He’s a microcosm of how the front office has assembled this particular group of hitters.

The other problem is how you make meaningful additions moving forward. Outside of the catcher spot, where the team has reportedly already expressed interest in a notable upgrade, there isn’t an obvious spot at which you could pursue A Guy. In my extremely outsider opinion, Hoyer is unlikely to want to disrupt the cultural fabric of the team much. Nor will he want to move any of these guys for a subpar return, given the upside they actually possess regardless of 2024 outcomes.

That’s not to say it’s impossible that such a move could transpire over the course of the winter. But such inflexibility, in conjunction with historically conservative leadership, makes it extremely cumbersome to develop into a concrete idea. In turn, that makes it harder than we'd all like it to be to envision the path from here to where the Cubs need to be.

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[Guest234]

I really do object to the gamblers objectification of athletes - they are not "tons of bodies" they are players who make up the game we follow. And not just fodder for click bait trollers.

[Billy62]

Its an interesting perspective Randy. It has merit. I mean do I like our team? Absolutely. But I do realize they are missing a couple of pieces that would make them legitimate contenders. Here we are again at the tail end of season that has neither been really good, or really bad. And we are in the playoff contention conversation. The possibility exists that we could finish the season with a similar record. But what if we make the playoffs? Could this team make any noise in the post-season. Sure any team in the mix has a shot, but realistically this team would be tremendously lucky to survive one round. Finally getting around to jettisoning Neris definitely is a step in the right direction. If we do miss the post season it probably will be as Maxwell Smart used to say "missed it by that much." Then you could only think about the games that Neris blow-torched in the 9th inning. So what do you ask Santa for this Christmas? A left-handed flamethrower out of the bullpen with a good hook and a decent change-up. That of course could throw strikes would be a candidate as our closer. As you noted, we have a fair collection of just above average bats. We are missing a big club in the middle of the line-up. To move one of them for a star would make sense. For example, I like Michael Busch, but if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. suddenly became available, it would make him expendable. So it goes with just about everybody in the line-up. So it comes down to that one guy in the middle of the line-up and that one guy coming out of the bullpen in the 9th inning. It changes us from wannabe contenders to series favorites.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I am really anxious to see what we do about Catcher because it is a desolate position across the league and not many non-contenders have a good one to trade for. The team really has 2 spots they will realistically look to upgrade IMO - C and 2B,

 

1. Sign Soto. But I think we all know that isn't happening.

2. Trade Nico because the team only has a couple spots it can realistically upgrade & they badly need more power, even if it downgrades the defense.

3. Trade for a C prospect - Dodgers refused to include Rushing in a deal for Crochet, so they probably want to line him up for a bigger trade. There are a few veteran C who can hit and might be available but lack the overall game you want out of the position. I truly believe Hoyer needs to dig deep and find a Busch-style trade for a C prospect that is blocked and a team is willing to move.